Earth’s Climate History from 4.5 Billion Years to One Minute

Figures & data

Fig. 1 (A) The geological timescale (adapted from image by Jonathan R. Hendricks. Image in the public domain). (B) History of Earth’s crust and plate tectonics (from Hawkesworth et al., 2016). (C) Evolution of life (from Knoll & Nowak, 2017).

Fig. 2 (Upper) The Earth system with external forcings and internal climate feedbacks. (Lower) Dominant variability and disastrous extremes of Earth’s climate system.

Fig. 3 Estimated relative variance of climate over all periods of variation (from Mitchell, 1976).

Fig. 4 Observations of Earth’s climate and weather.

Fig. 5 Temperature records for (A) Precambrian and Phanerozoic (single, used in this study), (B) Quaternary (continuous, used in this study), (C) Holocene (from Kaufman et al., 2020), (D) Common Era (from PAGES 2k Consortium, 2017), (E) Modern land surface stations (number of years with measurements. Triangles are ARM stations. Adapted from Lawrimore et al., 2011), and (F) Modern SST (number of observations between 1880 and 1889, from Woodruff et al., 2011). (G) Modern tidal gauge stations (from Dangendorf et al., 2019). (H) Modern CO₂ stations with flask (red) and continuous (blue) measurements (from Ciais et al., 2014).

Table 1. Palaeoclimate temperature datasets used in this study.

Region (abbrevition)	Project/site	Material	Method	Reference
Global (GLB)	Precambrian	Cherts	d30Si	Robert and Chaussidon (2006) Andre et al. (2006) van den Boorn et al. (2007) Steinhoefel et al. (2009) Abraham et al. (2011) Heck et al. (2011) Chakrabarti et al. (2012) Ding et al. (2017)
	Precambrian	Cherts	d18O	Tartese et al. (2017) Robert and Chaussidon (2006)
	Precambrian	Marine carbonate	d18O	Veizer and Prokoph (2015) Shields and Veizer (2002) Veizer et al. (1999)
	Precambrian	Resurrected proteins	Biological	Gaucher et al. (2008)
	Precambrian	Biological species	Biological	Schwartzman (2015)
	Phanerozoic	Marine carbonate	d18O	Verard and Veizer (2019)
	Phanerozoic	Marine carbonate	d18O	Song et al. (2019)
	Phanerozoic	Ocean sediment	d18O	Westerhold et al. (2020)
	Cenozoic	Ocean sediment	d18O	Mudelsee et al. (2014)
	Cenozoic	Ocean sediment	d18O	Cramer et al. (2009)
	Cenozoic	Ocean sediment	d18O	Huang et al. (2007)
	Cenozoic	Ocean sediment	d18O	Zachos et al. (2001)
	Quaternary	Ocean sediment	Model	Stap et al. (2016)
	Quaternary	Ocean sediment	Alkenone Mg/Ca	Shakun et al. (2015)
	Quaternary	Ocean sediment	d18O	Waelbroeck et al. (2002)
	Holocene	Multiple	Multiple	Kaufman et al. (2020)
	Holocene	Multiple	Multiple	Marcott et al. (2013)
	Common Era	Multiple	Multiple	PAGES 2k Consortium (2013)
	Common Era	Coral	Multiple	Tierney et al. (2015)
Northern Hemisphere (NH)	Quaternary	Ocean sediment	Model	de Boer et al. (2014)
	Common Era	Tree Ring		Guillet et al. (2017)
	Common Era	Tree Ring		Wilson et al. (2016)
	Common Era	Tree Ring		Schneider et al. (2015)
	Common Era	Multiple	Multiple	Ljungqvist (2010)
	Common Era	Multiple	Multiple	Mann et al. (2009)
	Common Era	Multiple	Multiple	Moberg et al. (2005)
	Common Era	Tree ring	Multiple	Esper et al. (2002)
	Common Era	Multiple	Multiple	Briffa (2000)
Continental Mean	Europe	Tree Ring		Luterbacher et al. (2016)
	Asia	Tree Ring		Cook et al. (2013)
	North America	Tree Ring		Trouet et al. (2013)
	South America	Multiple
	Australia	Multiple		Gergis et al. (2016)
	Arctic Antarctica	Multiple Multiple		Werner et al. (2018)
Antarctica (ANT)	EPICA Dome C	Ice core	dH	EPICA Community Members (2010)
	Vostok	Ice core	dH	EPICA Community Members (2010)
	EDML	Ice core	d18O	EPICA Community Members (2010)
	TALDICE	Ice core	d18O	Stenni et al. (2011)
	WAIS	Ice core	d18O	Steig et al. (2013)
Arctic (ARC)	NGRIP	Ice core	d18O	NGRIP Community Members (2004)
	GISP2	Ice core	d18O	Alley (2000)
	GRIP	Ice core	d18O	Vinther et al. (2010)
Africa (AFR)	Lake Malawi	Lake sediment	TEX86	Johnson et al. (2016)
	Kilimanjaro	Ice core	d18O	Thompson et al. (2002)
	Cold Air Cave	Speleothem	d18O	Holmgren et al. (1999)
	Lake Bosumtwi	Lake sediment	d18O	Shanahan et al. (2009)
	Dante Cave	Speleothem	d18O	Voarintsoa et al. (2016)
Asia (ASIA)	Sanbao Cave	Speleothem	d18O	Cheng et al. (2016)
	Borneo	Speleothem	d18O	Carolin et al. (2013)
	Borneo	Speleothem	d18O	Meckler et al. (2012)
	Soreq Cave	Speleothem	d18O	Grant et al. (2012)
	Soreq Cave	Speleothem	d18O	Bar-Matthews et al. (2003)
	Guliya	Ice core	d18O	Thompson et al. (1997)
	Dongge Cave	Speleothem	d18O	Yuan et al. (2004)
	Kesang Cave	Speleothem	d18O	Cheng et al. (2016)
	Tonnelnaya cave	Speleothem	d18O	Cheng et al. (2016)
Australia (AUS)	Cave KNI-51	Speleothem	d18O	Denniston et al. (2017)
	Mt. Arthur	Speleothem	d18O	Hellstrom et al. (1998)
	New Zealand	Speleothem	d18O	Williams et al. (2010)
Europe (EUR)	Cueva de Asiul	Speleothem	d18O	Smith et al. (2016)
	Spannagel Cave	Speleothem	d18O	Fohlmeister et al. (2013)
	Ammersee	Lake sediment	d18O	von Grafenstein et al. (1999)
	Lake Nuudsaku	Lake sediment	d18O	Stansell et al. (2017)
North America (NAM)	Devils Hole	Speleothem	d18O	Landwehr et al. (2011)
	Devils Hole	Speleothem	d18O	Moseley et al. (2016)
	Leviathan	Speleothem	d18O	Lachniet et al. (2017)
	Pink Cave	Speleothem	d18O	Asmerom et al. (2007)
	Buckeye Creek Cave	Speleothem	d18O	Cheng et al. (2019)
	Lac Aurelie	Lake sediment	d18O	Bajolle et al. (2018)
	Alaska lakes	Lake sediment	Midge	Clegg et al. (2011)
	North America	Pollen	Pollen	Viau et al. (2006)
South America (SAM)	Botuverá Cave	Speleothem	d18O	Cruz et al. (2005)
	Santiago Cave	Speleothem	d18O	Mosblech et al. (2012)
	Huascarán	Ice core	d18O	Thompson et al. (1995)
	Sajama	Ice core	d18O	Thompson et al. (1998)
	Laguna Pumacocha	Lake sediment	d18O	Bird et al. (2011)
	Cascayunga Cave	Speleothem	d18O	Wang et al. (2017)
Indian Ocean (IND)	ODP722	Ocean sediment	Alkenone	Herbert et al. (2010)
	SO189	Ocean sediment	Mg/Ca	Mohtadi et al. (2014)
Tropical Western Pacific (TWP)	ODP806B	Ocean sediment	Mg/Ca	Medina-Elizalde and Lea (2005)
	ODP1145	Ocean sediment	Mg/Ca	Oppo and Sun (2005)
	MD81	Ocean sediment	Mg/Ca	Stott et al. (2004)
	Borneo	Speleothem	d18O	Carolin et al. (2016)
Tropical eAstern Pacific (TEP)	ODP846	Ocean sediment	Alkenone	Herbert et al. (2010)
	TR163-22	Ocean sediment	Mg/Ca	Lea et al. (2006)
	ME0005A-24JC	Ocean sediment	Alkenone	Dubois et al. (2014)
	ME0005A-24JC	Ocean sediment	Alkenone	Kienast et al. (2006)
	RC11-238	Ocean sediment	Alkenone	Koutavas and Sachs (2008)
	KN176-2	Ocean sediment	Alkenone	Pahnke et al. (2007)
Northwestern Pacific (NWP)	MD882	Ocean sediment	Alkenone	Martínez-Garcia et al. (2010)
	MD01-2421	Ocean sediment	Alkenone	Yamamoto et al. (2005)
	MD01-2421	Ocean sediment	d18O	Oba and Murayama (2004)
	MD01-2412	Ocean sediment	Alkenone	Harada et al. (2006)
	IDOP U1429	Ocean sediment	Mg/Ca	Clemens et al. (2018)
Southwestern Pacific (SWP)	MD97-2120	Ocean sediment	Mg/Ca	Pahnke et al. (2003)
Northeastern Pacific (NEP)	ODP1020	Ocean sediment	Alkenone	Herbert et al. (2001)
	ODP1012	Ocean sediment	Alkenone	Herbert et al. (2001)
	ODP1019	Ocean sediment	Alkenone	Barron et al. (2003)
Southeastern Pacific (SEP)	ODP1233	Ocean sediment	Alkenone	Kaiser et al. (2005)
North Atlantic (NAO)	ODP982	Ocean sediment	Alkenone	Lawrence et al. (2009)
	MD01-2443	Ocean sediment	Alkenone	Martrat et al. (2007)
	SU8118 and MD952042	Ocean sediment	Alkenone	Bard (2002)
	MD952042	Ocean sediment	d18O	Shackleton et al. (2000)
	MD99-2275	Ocean sediment	Alkenone	Sicre et al. (2008)
TROPICAL Atlantic (TAO)	ODP662	Ocean sediment	Alkenone	Herbert et al. (2010)
	MD03-2707	Ocean sediment	Mg/Ca	Weldeab et al. (2007)
	GeoB3129/3911	Ocean sediment	Mg/Ca	Weldeab et al. (2006)
	M35003-4	Ocean sediment	Alkenone	Ruehlemann et al. (1999)
	ODP658C	Ocean sediment	Alkenone	Zhao et al. (1995)
South Atlantic (SAO)	ODP1090	Ocean sediment	Alkenone	Martínez-Garcia et al. (2010)
	MD02-2594	Ocean sediment	Mg/Ca	Dyez et al. (2014)

Table 2. Palaeoclimate sea level and CO₂ datasets used in this study.

Variable	Material/method	Reference
Sea Level	Precambrian d87Sr/86Sr Phanerozoic Sea Level Datasets Quaternary Sea Level Datasets Holocene Sea Level Datasets	Shields and Veizer (2002) Veizer et al. (1999) GEOROC Miller et al. (2020) Verard et al. (2015) Miller (2005) Hallam (1989) Exxon (1988) Haq et al. (1987) Spratt and Lisiecki (2016) Shakun et al. (2015) de Boer et al. (2014) Grant et al. (2014) Bintanja et al. (2005) Lea et al. (2002) Waelbroeck et al. (2002) Grant et al. (2012) Arz et al. (2007) Siddall et al. (2003) Lambeck et al. (2014) Angulo et al. (1997) Kopp et al. (2016) Kemp et al. (2018)
CO2	Precambrian CO2 Datasets Phanerzoic CO2 Datasets Quaternary and Holocene CO2 Datasets	Sheldon (2006) Mitchell and Sheldon (2010) Sheldon and Tabor (2009) Kaufman and Xiao (2003) Rye et al. (1995) Hessler et al. (2004) Kah and Riding (2007) Lichtenegger et al. (2010) Schrag et al. (2013) Royer (2014) Berner (2006) Petit et al. (1999) Beerling and Royer (2011) Zhang et al. (2013) Foster et al. (2017) Bereiter et al. (2015) Bauska et al. (2021) Ahn and Brook (2008) Kawamura et al. (2003) Barnola et al. (1987) Lisiecki (2010) Bereiter et al. (2012) Smith et al. (1997) McElwain et al. (2002) Kouwenberg (2004) Ahn et al. (2012) Indermuhle et al. (1999) Oyabu et al. (2020) Meinshausen et al. (2017)

Table 3. Modern instrument datasets used in this study.

Variables	Datasets	Time Period	Reference
Land-Ocean Surface Temperature	National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Hadley Center/Climatic Research Unit (HadCRUT) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI)	1880–2016 1880–2016 1880–2016	Hansen et al. (2010) Morice et al. (2012) Vose et al. (2012)
Sea Surface Temperature	International Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) Version 4 Hadley Centre Sea Surface Temperature (HadSST3) Hadley Centre Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature (HadISST1) Centennial In Situ Observation-Based Estimates (COBE2)	1880–2016 1880–2016 1880–2016 1880–2016 1880–2016	Freeman et al. (2017) Huang et al. (2015) Kennedy et al. (2011) Rayner et al. (2003) Hirahara et al. (2014)
Surface Air Temperature	Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) Climatic Research Unit Surface Air Temperature High Resolution (CRUTS) University of Delaware Surface Air Temperature (UDEL) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Stations One-Minute Data	1880–2016 1901–2014 1900–2014 2016–2017	Lawrimore et al. (2011) Harris et al. (2014) Willmott and Robeson (1995) Stokes and Schwartz (1994)
CO2	All surface stations Mauna Loa AIRS/Aqua satellite Aircraft measurements Chemical methods	1965–2016 1959–2016 2003–2016 2004–2016 1812–1963	https://airs.jpl.nasa.gov/data/carbon_dioxide Beck (2007)
Global Sea Level from Tidal Gauge Stations	Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) dataset for 2200 tidal stations around the world Global Extreme Sea Level Analysis (GESLA) dataset Global sea level reconstructions	1806–Now 1806–Now 1900–2018 1900–2015 1900–2010 1808–2009 1880–2013 1900–2007	Holgate et al. (2013) link Woodworth et al. (2017) Frederikse et al. (2020) Dangendorf et al. (2019) Hay et al. (2015) Jevrejeva et al. (2014) Church and White (2011) Ray and Douglas (2011)
Global Sea Level from Satellite Measurements	NASA AVISO University of Colorado	1993–2016 1993–2016 1993–2016	https://podaac-ftp.jpl.nasa.gov/dataset/MERGED_TP_J1_OSTM_OST_GMSL_ASCII_V4 https://www.aviso.altimetry.fr/en/data/products/ocean-indicators-products/mean-sea-level.html http://sealevel.colorado.edu

Fig. 6 (A) Precambrian temperature derived from oxygen isotope and silicon isotope in cherts (from Tartèse et al., 2017). (B) Phanerozoic temperature derived from marine oxygen isotope (from Veizer & Prokoph, 2015). (C) Quaternary SST from the individual (cyan) and stacked (blue) records (from Shakun et al., 2015). (D) Late Quaternary temperature from Greenland and Antarctica ice cores (from EPICA Community Members, 2006). (E) Common Era northern hemisphere mean surface temperature (from IPCC, 2013). (F) Modern global mean surface temperature anomalies (from IPCC, 2013).

Fig. 7 Earth’s surface temperature history for (A) Precambrian, (B) Phanerozoic, (C) Quaternary, (D) late Quaternary, (E) Holocene, (F) Common Era, (G) 1880–2019, and (H) 2015 (one-minute data from the ARM stations in Fig. 5E).

Fig. 8 (A) Physical processes contributing to sea level variation from 1 yr to 100 Ma. SF, sea floor. Cont, continent (from Miller et al., 2005). (B) Physical processes contributing to Phanerozoic sea level variation (from Conrad, 2013). (C) Phanerozoic sea-level history (from Verard et al., 2015). (D) Quaternary sea-level history (from Shakun et al., 2015). (E) Late Quaternary sea-level history based on oxygen isotope (line) and coral terraces (black circles) (from Chappell et al., 1996). (F) Modern sea level history (from IPCC, 2013).

Fig. 9 Holocene sea-level history in different regions from (1) Sparrenbom et al. (2006); (2) Engelhart and Horton (2012), (3) Garcia-Artola et al. (2018); (4) Shugar et al. (2014); (5) Tornqvist et al. (2004); (6) Song et al. (2013); (7) Banjeree (2000); (8) Mann et al. (2019), (9) Angulo et al., 2006; (10) Lewis et al. (2013); (11) Rashid et al. (2014); (12) Garrett et al. (2020); (13) Cooper et al. (2018); (14) Watcham et al. (2011). World map courtesy of NOAA.

Fig. 10 Earth’s sea-level history for (A) Precambrian, (B) Phanerozoic, (C) Quaternary, (D) late Quaternary, (E) Holocene, (F) Common Era, (G) 1880–2019, and (H) 2017 (hourly data from tidal gauge stations).

Fig. 11 (A) Precambrian CO₂ history from a model (black line, yellow shading indicates its 95% confidence level) and various observations (from Catling & Zahnle, 2020). (B) Phanerozoic CO₂ history from proxies (from Royer, 2014). (C) Quaternary CO₂ history from Antarctic ice core composite and temperature from EPICA (from Luthi et al., 2008). (D) Late Quaternary CO₂ history from Byrd Station, Antarctica together with other climate variables (from Ahn & Brook, 2008). (E) Common era CO₂ history from ice core measurements in Greenland (symbols) and Antarctica (line) (from Barnola et al., 1995). (F) Common era CO₂ history from ice core measurements in NEEM, Dome Fuji, Law Dome, WDC, EDML and South Pole (from Oyabu et al., 2020). (G) Common era CO₂ history from stomata (dots) and ice core (black line) (from Finsinger & Wagner-Cremer, 2009). (H) Historical CO₂ concentrations used by IPCC AR6 (from Meinshausen et al., 2017).

Fig. 12 (A) Annual mean CO₂ concentrations measured at Montsouris, France, 1877–1910 (from Stanhill, 1982). (B) Monthly mean CO₂ concentrations measured at two stations in Scandinavia, 1955–1959 (from Bischof, 1960). (C) Zonal-mean CO₂ concentration measured by NOAA ESRL (from Jiang et al., 2016). (D) Seasonal mean CO₂ concentration for JAS 2008 measured by IASI (from Crevoisier et al., 2009). (E) Climatological monthly mean CO₂ concentration for May measured by AIRS (from Pagano et al., 2014). (F) Monthly mean CO₂ concentration for May 2015 measured by OCO-2 (from Eldering et al., 2017) (G) Monthly mean CO₂ concentration for May 2010 measured by GOSAT (from Crisp et al., 2012). (H) Annual mean CO₂ concentration for 2009 measured by SCIAMACHY (from Schneising et al., 2011).

Fig. 13 Earth’s CO₂ history for (A) Precambrian, (B) Phanerozoic, (C) Quaternary, (D) late Quaternary, (E) Holocene, (F) Common Era, (G) 1880–2019, and (H) 2010 (continuous 5-minute data from towers).

Fig. 14 Summary of the amplitudes of dominant climate variability. The amplitudes of oscillations are estimated using standard deviation multiplied by 2, while that of global warming is simply the increase from 1880 to 2020.

Fig. 15 Regional mean surface temperature in the past 2000 years for (A) Arctic (Werner et al., 2018), (C) Europe (Lutebacher et al., 2016), (E) Asia (Cook et al., 2013), (G) Northern Hemisphere (Guillet et al., 2017), and (I) Northern Hemisphere (Schneider et al., 2015). Linear trends are shown for 100-year periods ending at 100AD, 200AD, … , 1900AD and last year of data (blue lines). The corresponding 100-year running trends (warming rates) are shown in (B) (D) (F) (H) and (J), respectively. Colour stars denote the linear trends that are above the 95% confidence level.

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