On the Origins of the Violent Neighborhood: A Study of the Nature and Predictors of Crime‐Type Differentiation across Chicago Neighborhoods

Figures & data

Table 1 Reliability and variance of overall crime rates and neighborhood violence differentials

	Overall crime rates	Violence differential
	1995	1996	1995	1996
Reliability	.83	.83	.54	.51
Variance (τ)	.49 (.05)	.69 (.07)	.54 (.08)	.69 (.11)
Note: Standard errors of τ in parentheses.

Table 2 Observed rates of violent and nonviolent offending, by type of neighborhood

		Observed distribution of crime rates
Year	Level of differentiation	Violent	Nonviolent	Ratio	n
1995	Violent (≥ +1 SD)	3352.60	2415.10	1.41	91
	Neither (≥ −1 SD and +1 SD)	2148.65	2117.39	1.00	145
	Nonviolent (≥ −1 SD)	1367.78	1523.71	.86	106
1996	Violent (≥ +1 SD)	3794.08	2784.34	1.36	76
	Neither (≥ −1 SD and ≤ +1 SD)	1696.33	1976.07	.83	182
	Nonviolent (≤ −1 SD)	772.08	1494.96	.50	84

Table 3 Correlations among 1995 and 1996 measures of overall crime rates and the violence differential (n = 342)

	Overall crime rates	Violence differential
	1995	1996	1995	1996
Overall crime rates
1996	.94∗ (.05)
Violence differential
1995	.93∗ (.06)	.76∗ (.05)
1996	.96∗ (.07)	.99∗ (.06)	.78∗ (.07)
∗p < .05.Note: Standard errors in parentheses.

Table 4 Relationships of explanatory variables to overall crime rates and violence differential (n = 342)

	1995	1996
	Crime rates	Violence differential	Crime rates	Violence differential
	γ^1	SE	γ	SE	γ	SE	γ	SE
Immigrant concentration	−.09∗	.02	−.06	.05	−.09∗	.03	−.06	.04
Concentrated disadvantage	.24∗	.03	.23∗	.52	.32∗	.03	.30∗	.05
Residential stability	−.05∗	.02	.09∗	.05	−.02	.03	.01	.04
Network ties	−.63∗	.13	−1.20∗	.28	−.51∗	.16	−.85∗	.24
Intercept	1.58∗	.35	3.05∗	.72	1.23∗	.40	2.14∗	.53
^1γ is the HLM population average estimate and SE its robust standard error. Spatial lag coefficients excluded from the results reported here.∗p < .05.

Table

	1995	1996
	Rate	γi 0	SE	Rate	γi 0	SE
Violent offending
Assault	5459.53	8.35	.04	5419.99	1.66	.02
Homicide	31.39	−6.70	.13	30.71	−5.01	.12
Robbery	1190.01	−1.63	.03	1045.41	−.10	.03
Aggravated assault (1996 only)	—	—	—	1245.86	6.69	.05
Nonviolent offending
Burglary	1492.98	−1.13	.03	1469.18	.53	.04
Vandalism	2680.25	−.55	.02	2605.85	1.08	.04
Auto theft (1995 only)	1518.16	−1.14	.03	—	—	—
Theft (1995 only)	4052.60	−.25	.04	—	—	—
Drugs (1995 only)	1906.46	−1.72	.05	—	—	—
Vice (1995 only)	425.14	−3.02	.06	—	—	—
Note: Lower values of γi 0 reflect greater item “difficulty;” see Equations (1) and (4). γ is the HLM population average estimate, and SE its robust standard error.