A critical appraisal of the case for progressive unionism in Northern Ireland today

Figures & data

Figure 1. Pro-union population and unionist party vote share as a percentage of the electorate (NILT, CAIN, ARK & EONI).

Table A1. Long-term constitutional preference by political identity (ARK, NILT, 2021).

	Unionist	Nationalist	Neither	Other	Don't know
Pro-Union	61%	5%	33%	0%	1%
Pro-Irish Unity	2%	63%	33%	1%	1%

Table A2. Long-term constitutional preference by religion brought up in (ARK, NILT, 2021).

	Catholic	Protestant	No Religion
Pro-Union	15%	79%	6%
Pro-Irish Unity	78%	17%	5%

Religion brought up in is used in surveys to capture the broader impact of religious tradition on outlook. I used it here to show that even speaking in the broadest terms, there are a significant number of those who are pro-union that situate themselves outside the Protestant tradition. When personal religious beliefs are factored in, the 2021 NILT shows that of the 28 per cent of the electorate without religion: 9 per cent favour remaining in the UK with direct rule; 34 per cent favour remaining in the UK with devolution; 32 per cent favour Irish Unity; and 25 per cent provided a different answer or didn’t know.

Table A3. How close or remote a relationship do you think the UK should have with the EU in future? (ARK, NILT, 2021).

	Very close	Fairly close	Neither close nor distant	Fairly remote	Very remote	Don't know
Pro-Union	26%	41%	20%	5%	2%	5%
Pro-Irish Unity	61%	25%	6%	1%	1%	5%

Table A4. Checks on goods travelling across the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland (University of Liverpool, NIGES, 2019). As the University of Liverpool run polls as well as election surveys, this is the clearest way of citing the evidence.

	Acceptable	Unacceptable	(Don't know)	(Refused)
Pro-Union	27%	43%	29%	1%
Pro-Irish Unity	18%	66%	14%	2%

Table A5. Checks on goods travelling between Great Britain and Northern Ireland (University of Liverpool, NIGES, 2019).

	Acceptable	Unacceptable	(Don't know)	(Refused)
Pro-Union	23%	47%	30%	1%
Pro-Irish Unity	34%	46%	18%	2%

Table A6. Which of these statements best matches your view on the Protocol? (ARK, NILT, 2021).

	On balance, a good thing for NI	A mixed bag for NI	On balance, a bad thing for NI	I don't know enough to have a strong opinion	Other	Don't know
Pro-Union	9%	40%	39%	11%	0	0
Pro-Irish Unity	66%	22%	4%	8%	0	0

Table A7. Preferences between scrapping the Protocol or keeping power-sharing (Garry et al., 2023).

	Scrap protocol	Keep power-sharing	Neither	Don’t know
Pro-Union	22%	47%	10%	22%
Pro-Irish Unity	4%	76%	7%	12%

Question wording: ‘The Protocol should be scrapped even if it means the end of the Northern Ireland Assembly and the Executive’, ‘The Northern Ireland Assembly and Executive should be maintained even if there are difficulties with the Protocol’, ‘Neither’ and ‘Don’t Know’.

Table A8. How fair or unfair do you think the income distribution is in Northern Ireland? (ARK, NILT, 2021).

	Very fair	Fair	Unfair	Very unfair	Can't choose
Pro-Union	2%	33%	35%	8%	22%
Pro-Irish Unity	1%	18%	45%	19%	17%

Table A9. Think people with high incomes should pay a larger share of their income in taxes than those with low incomes. (ARK, NILT, 2021).

	Much larger share	Larger	The same share	Smaller	Much smaller share	Can't choose
Pro-Union	12%	55%	28%	0	0	4%
Pro-Irish Unity	24%	54%	18%	0	0	3%

Table A10. Agree/disagree – the Northern Ireland Executive is doing all that it can to reduce poverty? (ARK, NILT, 2021).

	Strongly agree	Agree	Neither agree nor disagree	Disagree	Strongly disagree	Can't choose
Pro-Union	1%	9%	27%	36%	21%	6%
Pro-Irish Unity	0	5%	19%	42%	28%	5%

Table A11. Social security benefits should enable an individual or family to have a normal standard of living (ARK, NILT, 2021).

	Strongly agree	Agree	Neither agree nor disagree	Disagree	Strongly disagree	I don't know
Pro-Union	13%	41%	28%	13%	2%	2%
Pro-Irish Unity	29%	41%	15%	13%	1%	2%

Table A12. Social security benefits should enable an individual or family to live a life in dignity (ARK, NILT, 2021).

	Strongly agree	Agree	Neither agree nor disagree	Disagree	Strongly disagree	I don't know
Pro-Union	20%	59%	15%	4%	1%	1%
Pro-Irish Unity	42%	48%	7%	2%	0	1%

Table A13. It was right to make same-sex marriage legal in Northern Ireland (ARK, NIGES, 2019).

	Strongly agree	Agree	Neither agree nor disagree	Disagree	Strongly disagree	Don't know	Refused
Pro-Union	25%	25%	17%	21%	7%	3%	1%
Pro-Irish Unity	27%	30%	18%	16%	5%	3%	1%
Pro-Union Voter (18–30)	29%	26%	16%	17%	5%	6%	0
Pro-Union Non-Voter (18–30)	45%	30%	12%	4%	2%	7%	0
Pro-Union Voter (30+)	20%	23%	17%	27%	10%	2%	1%
Pro-Union Non-Voter (30+)	28%	29%	20%	14%	4%	4%	1%
Pro-Irish Unity Voter (18–30)	40%	30%	19%	8%	2%	2%	0
Pro-Irish Unity Non-Voter (18–30)	27%	27%	31%	12%	0	4%	0
Pro-Irish Unity Voter (30+)	26%	30%	17%	18%	7%	2%	1%
Pro-Irish Unity Non-Voter (30+)	16%	34%	23%	11%	4%	10%	1%
DUP Voter	18%	24%	15%	29%	11%	2%	1%
Sinn Fein Voter	22%	30%	18%	20%	9%	1%	1%

Table A14. Abortion should be legal in Northern Ireland (University of Liverpool, NIGES, 2017).

	Strongly agree	Agree	Neither agree nor disagree	Disagree	Strongly disagree	Don't know	Refused
Pro-Union	13%	30%	16%	13%	17%	11%	0
Pro-Irish Unity	12%	26%	21%	16%	17%	7%	2%
Pro-Union Voter (18–30)	16%	48%	10%	10%	11%	6%	0
Pro-Union Non-Voter (18–30)	21%	33%	12%	7%	10%	18%	0
Pro-Union Voter (30+)	13%	28%	18%	16%	19%	6%	1%
Pro-Union Non-Voter (30+)	10%	26%	15%	11%	17%	21%	0
Pro-Irish Unity Voter (18–30)	6%	34%	29%	9%	14%	9%	0
Pro-Irish Unity Non-Voter (18–30)	13%	41%	25%	6%	9%	6%	0
Pro-Irish Unity Voter (30+)	12%	25%	21%	19%	16%	6%	1%
Pro-Irish Unity Non-Voter (30+)	13%	17%	15%	13%	30%	9%	4%
DUP Voter	10%	31%	15%	17%	20%	6%	0
Sinn Fein Voter	9%	22%	21%	19%	21%	7%	1%

Table A15. Which of these statements about flags on public buildings in Northern Ireland comes closest to your own view? (ARK, NILT, 2021).

	Union flag flown from all public buildings all the time	Union flag flown on designated days only	Union flag not flown at all from any public building	Don't know
Pro-Union	36%	52%	6%	6%
Pro-Irish Unity	2%	38%	56%	5%

Table A16. Which one of these statements comes closest to your own view about the Peace Lines in Northern Ireland being removed (ARK, NILT, 2021).

	Left the way they are now	Come down now	Come down in the future	Keep Peace Lines, but opened up for some accessibility	Keep Peace Lines, but change to look more appealing	Don't know
Pro-Union	6%	19%	49%	5%	5%	16%
Pro-Irish Unity	4%	23%	53%	4%	2%	14%

Table A17. Prefer own religion or mixed-religion workplace? (ARK, NILT, 2021).

	Own religion only	Mixed religion workplace	Other	Don't know
Pro-Union	4%	89%	4%	3%
Pro-Irish Unity	3%	90%	3%	3%

Table A18. Prefer to send children to own religion or mixed-religion school? (ARK, NILT, 2021).

	Own religion only	Mixed religion school	Other	Don't know
Pro-Union	22%	71%	5%	2%
Pro-Irish Unity	26%	65%	7%	2%

Table A19. Agree/disagree – The culture and traditions of the Catholic community add to the richness and diversity of Northern Ireland society? (ARK, NILT, 2021).

	Strongly agree	Agree	Neither agree nor disagree	Disagree	Strongly disagree	Don't know
Pro-Union	14%	47%	26%	7%	3%	2%
Pro-Irish Unity	49%	37%	10%	2%	1%	1%

Table A20. Would you yourself mind or not mind if one of your close relatives were to marry someone of a different religion? (University of Liverpool, NIGES, 2019).

	Would mind a lot	Would mind a little	Would not mind
Pro-Union	10%	19%	72%
Pro-Irish Unity	8%	28%	64%
Pro-Union Voter (18–30)	15%	14%	71%
Pro-Union Non-Voter (18–30)	4%	2%	94%
Pro-Union Voter (30+)	11%	25%	64%
Pro-Union Non-Voter (30+)	5%	11%	84%
Pro-Irish Unity Voter (18–30)	5%	29%	66%
Pro-Irish Unity Non-Voter (18–30)	8%	21%	71%
Pro-Irish Unity Voter (30+)	10%	29%	61%
Pro-Irish Unity Non-Voter (30+)	5%	20%	75%
DUP Voter	15%	25%	60%
Sinn Fein Voter	10%	33%	58%

Table A21. What type of school would you prefer to send you child to? (University of Liverpool, NIGES, 2019).

	Own religion only	Mixed-religion school
Pro-Union	38%	62%
Pro-Irish Unity	57%	43%
Pro-Union Voter (18–30)	46%	54%
Pro-Union Non-Voter (18–30)	18%	82%
Pro-Union Voter (30+)	45%	55%
Pro-Union Non-Voter (30+)	25%	75%
Pro-Irish Unity Voter (18–30)	59%	41%
Pro-Irish Unity Non-Voter (18–30)	44%	56%
Pro-Irish Unity Voter (30+)	59%	41%
Pro-Irish Unity Non-Voter (30+)	43%	57%
DUP Voter	56%	44%
Sinn Fein Voter	69%	31%

Table A22. There should be an Irish Language Act (University of Liverpool, NIGES, 2019).

	Strongly agree	Agree	Neither agree nor disagree	Disagree	Strongly disagree	Don't know	Refused
Pro-Union	3%	11%	17%	21%	35%	11%	2%
Pro-Irish Unity	46%	32%	12%	3%	1%	4%	1%

ARK. (2021). Northern Ireland life and times survey.

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University of Liverpool. (2019). Northern Ireland general election study.

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Garry, J., Brown Swan, C., Henderson, H., O'leary, B., & Pow, J. (2023). Northern Ireland Assembly Election Study 2022.

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