Discussion of “Bayesian reliability: Combining information”

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Notes

4 This phrase was used in the conference presentation by Alyson G. Wilson.

5 Push for on - then push again for off.

6 See also Davis (2006) for a discussion of this example.

7 This condition arises if an automobile is left overnight outside a garage—a common practice in Europe.

8 This real-life example occurred on a product introduced to the market prior to the widespread introduction of automatically activated headlamps.

9 Feynman was able to easily detect and excite the failure mode (lack of compressibility of the “O” ring material in very cold conditions) by immersing a small amount of clamped material in iced water which didn't spring back when the clamp was removed (see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Rwcbsn19c0).

10 This probability which represents a degree of belief and so is therefore Bayesian in nature is reflected on the FMEA as a rating between 1 and 10—low ratings indicate a high probability that the detection control can excite the failure mode while high ratings indicate a low probability; hence a risk that the failure mode will not be detected prior to the tooling phase and will thus escape into the field. The actual values of these probabilities will depend on the context and the consequence of an escaped failure mode, but the use of Bayesian methods in the FMEA would benefit from further research.