Crossing the line: examination of student demographic changes concomitant with declining academic performance in elementary schools

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between school decline and changes in school demographics. Using a population of 981 (N = 981) elementary schools, the authors identified samples of declining schools: Relational Decline (n = 510), Absolute Decline (n = 217), and Crossing the Line (n = 165). Latent growth models assessed longitudinal relationships between 4 demographic factors and school performance. Of the 4 tested predictors, only changes in the percentages of disadvantaged students maintained significant structural relationships with declining academic performance. Associations between school size on school performance varied depending on sample. Findings suggested that changes in school demographics challenge educators, but that internal school processes account for school decline. Future research might search for a school decline threshold, as well as common processes responsible for the phenomenon. Educators might design procedures so that no one school must face continuous or extensive increases in at-risk student populations.

Keywords:

• school change
• school composition
• school effectiveness
• school improvement
• school decline

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to express their gratitude to Xitao Fan, Jim Esposito, and Robert McNergney at the University of Virginia, Sam Stringfield at the University of Louisville, as well as the anonymous reviewers of SESI for their contributions to the improvement of this paper.