Science career expectation and science-related motivation: a latent profile analysis using PISA 2015 data

Figures & data

Figure 1. The synthesised science-related motivation and career expectation model.

Table 1. Description of variables and their descriptive statistics.

Variables		Description	Scale reliability	N	Min	Max	Means	Sd.	Missing rate (%)
Science motivation-related variables	JOYSCIE (WLE)	Continuous variable^a. Derived from ST094Q01∼05^b	0.940	1314351	−2.115	2.164	0.370	0.889	1.31
	INTBRSCI (WLE)	Continuous variable^a. Derived from ST095Q04,07,08,13 and15^b	0.787	1302168	−2.532	2.603	0.454	0.809	2.23
	INSTSCIE (WLE)	Continuous variable^a. Derived from ST113Q01∼04 ^b	0.901	1314463	−1.930	1.736	0.531	0.751	1.30
	SCIEEFF (WLE)	Continuous variable^a. Derived from ST129Q01∼08^b	0.891	1315488	−3.757	3.278	−0.010	1.146	1.23
	EPIST (WLE)	Continuous variable^a. Derived from ST131Q01∼05^b	0.857	1314276	−2.790	2.155	−0.081	0.848	1.32
Science career expectation	SCEXP	Dummy variable. Coded as 0 = non-science-related career expectation; 1 = science-related career expectation^c	/	912861	0	1	/	/	31.47
Demographic variables	GENDER	Categorical, coded as 1 = Female; 2 = Male	/	1331794	0	1	/	/	0.00
	ESCS (WLE)	Continuous variable^a. Derived from the indicators parental education (PARED), highest parental occupation (HISEI), and home possessions (HOMEPOS)^b	0.740	1323060	−4.973	3.614	−1.074	1.103	0.66
Science instructional practices and science learning engagement variables	TDTEACH (WLE)	Continuous variable^a. Derived from ST103Q01,03,08 and11^b	0.858	1237952	−2.448	2.078	0.008	1.022	7.05
	IBTEACH (WLE)	Continuous variable^a. Derived from ST098Q01∼09, except Q04^b,d	0.898	1240606	−3.341	3.183	−0.282	1.100	6.85
	OUTHOURS (SUM)	Continuous variable. Sum of ST071Q01NA	/	1196951	0.000	30.000	5.745	5.980	10.12
	SHOURS	Continuous variable. Multiplication of ST059Q03TA and ST061Q01NA	/	1294324	0.000	33.330	5.563	3.408	2.82
	SCIEACT (WLE)	Continuous variable^a. Derived from ST146Q01∼09^b	0.922	1315743	−1.761	3.362	0.518	0.964	1.21

^aThis index is standardised to have a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1 across OECD countries.

^b These items are all reverse coded in order that the higher of the WLE scores corresponded to the higher level of indices.

^c The index of science-related career expectations is derived from a question asking students about ‘what kind of job (they) expect to have when (they) are about 30 years old’.

^d These items are all reverse coded in order that the higher values of the index corresponded to the higher frequency of inquiry-based science teaching.

Table 2. Correlations between the motivation indices used in latent profile analyses.

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
JOYSCIE (1)	1	0.452**	0.297**	0.332**	0.369**
INTBRSCI (2)	—	1	0.308**	0.310**	0.272**
INSTSCIE (3)	—	—	1	0.219**	0.2229**
SCIEEFF (4)	—	—	—	1	0.248**
EPIST (5)	—	—	—	—	1

Note: * p < .05, **p < .01, ***p < .001.

Table 3. Fit indexes of LPA models.

No. of groups	Log-likelihood	FP	AIC	BIC	SABIC	Entropy	LMR (p)	BLRT (p)	Smallest profile
2	−61387.921	16	122807.842	122922.843	122871.997	0.862	0.000	0.000	14.44%
3	−59965.783	22	119975.566	120133.69	120063.780	0.910	0.000	0.000	13.57%
4	−58017.755	28	116091.511	116292.763	116203.783	0.960	0.000	0.000	3.12%
5	−57750.762	34	115569.523	115813.901	115705.854	0.962	0.049	0.000	0.72%

Note: FP, No. of free parameter; Smallest profile: smallest class frequency.

Figure 2. Latent profiles of student motivation.

Table 4. Students’ profile differences in terms of science career expectation (SCEXP).

Profile	SCIEEXP	Prob.	S.E.	OR	Pairwise comparison (Chi-Square)
					Vs. 2	Vs. 3	Vs. 4	Vs. 5
Uncommitted (1)	Non-science	0.728	0.030	1.000	0.616	3.767	15.605***	1.902
	Science	0.218	0.030	0.793
Unconfident (2)	Non-science	0.807	0.011	1.000	—	15.205***	45.472***	26.917***
	Science	0.193	0.011	0.681
Scientist (3)	Non-science	0.710	0.022	1.000	—	—	4.732*	1.648
	Science	0.290	0.022	1.164
Enthusiast (4)	Non-science	0.632	0.023	1.000	—	—	—	19.308***
	Science	0.368	0.023	1.656
Average (5)	Non-science	0.740	0.006	1.000	—	—	—	—
	Science	0.260	0.006	1.000

Note: Reference profile is Averaged profile. S.E.: Standard Error. OR: Odds Ratio. *: p < 0.05; **: p < 0.01; ***: p < 0.001.

Table 5. Logistic regression of students’ profiles on science career expectation (SCEXP).

Profile	B	SE	P-value	Exp(B)
Uncommitted (1)	−0.291	0.016	0.000	0.747
Unconfident (2)	−0.435	0.007	0.000	0.647
Scientist (3)	−0.831	0.043	0.000	0.436
Enthusiast (4)	0.451	0.007	0.000	1.570

Note: Reference profile is Averaged profile. *p < 0.05; **: p < 0.01; ***: p < 0.001.

Table 6. Odds-ratio being in a profile as a function of IBTEACH, TDTEACH, SHOURS, OUTHOURS, and SCIEACT.

Profile	IBTEACH			TDTEACH			SHOURS			OUTHOURS			SCIEACT
	Estimate	S.E.	OR	Estimate	S.E.	OR	Estimate	S.E.	OR	Estimate	S.E.	OR	Estimate	S.E.	OR
1	−0.655***	0.079	0.520***	−0.522***	0.087	0.594***	0.014	0.018	1.014	0.008	0.012	1.008	−0.699***	0.082	0.497***
2	−0.459***	0.026	0.632***	−0.414***	0.028	0.661***	−0.039***	0.009	0.961***	−0.032***	0.006	0.968***	−0.726***	0.030	0.484***
4	0.314	0.050	1.369	0.536**	0.193	1.709*	0.036	0.027	1.037	0.075***	0.017	1.078***	1.338***	0.253	3.811**
5	0.329***	0.231	1.389***	0.445***	0.037	1.560***	0.040 ***	0.008	1.041***	0.038***	0.005	1.038***	0.793***	0.050	2.209***

Note: Reference profile is profile 3: Averaged profile. Profile: 1: Uncommitted profile; 2: Unconfident profile; 4. Scientist profile; 5: Enthusiast profile. Estimate: polynomial logistic regression coefficients; S.E.: Standard Error. OR: Odds Ratio. *: p < 0.05; **: p < 0.01; ***: p < 0.001.

Table 7. Odds-ratio being in a profile as a function of gender and ESCS.

Profile	Gender			ESCS
	Estimate	S.E.	OR	Estimate	S.E.	OR
1	0.726***	0.129	2.067***	0.021	0.054	1.021
2	−0.277***	0.053	0.758***	−0.245***	0.026	0.783***
4	0.835**	0.303	2.305*	0.395**	0.131	1.484*
5	0.545***	0.066	1.725***	0.433***	0.029	1.542***

Note: Reference profile is profile 3: Averaged profile. Profile: 1: Uncommitted profile; 2: Unconfident profile; 4. Scientist profile; 5: Enthusiast profile. Estimate: polynomial logistic regression coefficients; S.E.: Standard Error. OR: Odds Ratio. *: p < 0.05; **: p < 0.01; ***: p < 0.001.

Data availability statement

The study represents a secondary data analysis of the public use PISA 2015 file provided by the OECD. The PISA 2015 Science data for China have been made publicly available by the OECD and can be accessed at: https://www.oecd.org/pisa/data/2015database/