Forecasting the electric transformation in transportation: the role of battery technology performance

ABSTRACT

In an effort to encourage consumers to purchase electric vehicles (EVs), the government has been funding battery research to solve some of these problems. This paper presents a study using technology forecasting using data envelopment analysis (TFDEA) to forecast future battery performance characteristics. The results were compared against the performance goals established by the US Department of Energy (DOE). We find that the foreseen progress of EV battery performance will be insufficient to meet the DOE projected goals for the range that EVs can travel before running out of power. Therefore, a new battery technology must be developed because the incremental improvements in current battery technologies leave EVs considerably short of the DOE performance specification for longer trip ranges.

KEYWORDS:

• Electric vehicle
• technology forecasting
• battery

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes on contributors

Elizabeth Gibson is an adjunct assistant professor at Portland State University.

Kevin van Blommestein is a doctoral student at Portland State University.

Jisun Kim is a research assistant professor at Portland State University.

Tugrul Daim is a Professor and the Director of the Technology Management Doctoral Program at Portland State University. He is an Associate Editor for Technological Forecasting and Social Change.

Edwin Garces is a doctoral student at Portland State University.