Prevalence of HIV among those 15 and older in rural South Africa

Figures & data

Figure 1. Location of the Agincourt HDSS in Southern Africa.

Figure 2. Boundary of the Agincourt HDSS study site in the subdistrict.

Figure 3. Flowchart of age–sex stratified random sample of 2009 Agincourt population, based on eligibility, being located for potential interview, consenting to interview, and consenting to HIV testing.

Table 1. Sociodemographic characteristics by sex: age–sex stratified random sample of ages 15+ from the 2009 Agincourt population (N=34,413).

	Female (%) n=3892	Male (%) n=3770	Total (%) n=7662
Sex
Female	100	0	52
Male	0	100	48
Age group
15–19	8	8	8
20–24	12	13	12
25–29	12	13	13
30–34	12	13	12
35–39	12	13	12
40–44	9	8	9
45–49	8	8	8
50–54	4	5	5
55–59	5	4	5
60–64	5	5	5
65–69	4	4	4
70–74	3	3	3
75–79	3	1	2
80–84	3	2	2
SES quintile
Low	15	15	15
Middle-low	19	19	19
Middle	21	20	21
Middle-high	21	21	21
High	24	26	25
Previous migration history
No	35	45	40
Yes	65	55	60
Male-headed household	54	73	63
South African	69	71	70
Education
0	23	15	19
1–11	56	61	58
12	15	17	16
13+	6	7	7
Union status
None	36	45	40
Current	37	42	40
Previous	27	13	20

Table 2. Measured Agincourt HIV prevalence (%) by sex and age.

	Measured (95% CI)
Age	Female		Male
15–19	5.5	(2.6–8.4)	0.4	(0.0–1.3)
20–24	27.0	(21.9–32.2)	6.1	(2.9–9.4)
25–29	37.8	(32.1–43.4)	21.7	(15.2–28.3)
30–34	41.8	(36.2–47.3)	41.8	(33.7–50.0)
35–39	46.1	(40.7–51.6)	45.3	(38.1–52.6)
40–44	34.4	(28.1–40.8)	41.0	(31.4–50.6)
45–49	34.2	(28.0–40.4)	28.8	(20.9–36.7)
50–54	26.9	(19.4–34.4)	30.6	(19.9–41.2)
55–59	26.8	(19.5–34.0)	34.6	(24.2–44.9)
60–64	13.1	(7.6–18.6)	19.8	(12.4–27.2)
65–69	10.3	(5.2–15.4)	16.5	(8.9–24.1)
70–74	11.0	(4.6–17.4)	5.7	(0.8–10.5)
75–79	6.2	(0.9–11.4)	5.3	(0.0–12.4)
80–84	1.3	(0.0–3.8)	1.8	(0.0–5.3)
15–84	23.9	(22.2–25.6)	10.6	(9.3–12.0)

Table 3. Probit regression of HIV status on sociodemographic characteristics: respondents tested for HIV (n=4197).

	Beta	Lower 95% CI	Upper 95% CI
Male	−1.085	−1.774	−0.396
Age
15–19	–	–	–
20–24	1.060	0.748	1.373
25–29	1.454	1.135	1.774
30–34	1.541	1.219	1.862
35–39	1.694	1.368	2.02
40–44	1.345	0.999	1.691
45–49	1.336	0.981	1.692
50–54	1.120	0.725	1.515
55–59	0.994	0.596	1.392
60–64	0.447	0.027	0.868
65–69	0.261	−0.19	0.712
70–74	0.242	−0.243	0.727
75–79	−0.097	−0.657	0.464
80–84	−0.773	−1.637	0.092
Sex×Age
Male×20–24	0.049	−0.704	0.802
Male×25–29	0.575	−0.162	1.312
Male×30–34	1.048	0.325	1.772
Male×35–39	1.030	0.311	1.75
Male×40–44	1.226	0.484	1.968
Male×45–49	1.047	0.296	1.799
Male×50–54	1.306	0.521	2.092
Male×55–59	1.554	0.783	2.326
Male×60–64	1.623	0.841	2.405
Male×65–69	1.669	0.857	2.481
Male×70–74	1.094	0.21	1.977
Male×75–79	1.331	0.275	2.387
Male×80–84	1.503	0.187	2.819
Village
1	–	–	–
2	0.123	−0.267	0.513
3	0.059	−0.185	0.303
4	−0.087	−0.397	0.223
5	−0.131	−0.407	0.145
6	−0.003	−0.292	0.285
7	−0.064	−0.375	0.248
8	−0.076	−0.337	0.184
9	−0.113	−0.368	0.142
10	−0.188	−0.445	0.069
11	0.023	−0.209	0.256
12	0.179	−0.131	0.489
13	−0.098	−0.388	0.193
14	−0.038	−0.404	0.327
15	0.128	−0.157	0.414
16	−0.473	−0.768	−0.178
17	0.263	−0.071	0.597
18	0.348	−0.063	0.76
19	0.318	−0.137	0.772
20	−0.069	−0.513	0.375
21	0.566	0.165	0.967
Prior migration history	0.004	−0.118	0.125
SES quintiles
Low	–	–	–
Middle-low	−0.160	−0.328	0.009
Middle	−0.048	−0.223	0.127
Middle-high	−0.052	−0.237	0.134
High	−0.332	−0.515	−0.15
Male-headed household	−0.170	−0.301	−0.04
South African	0.158	0.015	0.301
Education (years)
0	–	–	–
1–11	0.013	−0.148	0.174
12	−0.077	−0.299	0.145
13+	−0.323	−0.611	−0.035
Union status
None	–	–	–
Current	−0.263	−0.42	−0.106
Previous	0.170	0	0.34
Constant	−1.505	−1.914	−1.097

Figure 4. HIV prevalence by sex and age of: (A) Agincourt 2010 estimates; (B) KwaZulu-Natal estimates; and (C) Swaziland DHS estimates from 2006 to 2007. *Age group 60–64 includes everyone aged 60+.