Deterrence by insurgents: Hezbollah’s military doctrine and capability vis-à-vis Israel

ABSTRACT

Deterrence between states is a long-established theory in security studies, but it is rare, if not unique, that an insurgency would deter a state from attacking another country. Insurgencies in the Middle East are increasingly playing an international role, of which deterrence is only a part. This generates an interesting dynamic in which an insurgency uses non-traditional tools to dissuade an adversarial state from attacking the group or country in which it resides. Thus, the research topic is: How is Hezbollah able to deter Israel?

KEYWORDS:

• Lebanon
• Hezbollah
• Israel
• deterrence
• insurgency
• Terrorism

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1. Levy, “When do deterrent threats work?” 485-512.

2. Ibid., 488.

3. Quackenbush, “Deterrence Theory: Where do We Stand?” 741-762.

4. Zagare, “Rationality and Deterrence,” 238-260.

5. New York Times, “English Summary of the Winograd Commission Report.”

6. Boaz, “State Weakness and “Vacuum of Power” in Lebanon,’ 757-782.

7. Aderet, ““In Cold Blood” Israeli Who Commanded Massacre of Dozens of Arab Captives in 1948 Dies at 93.”

8. Norton, “Shi’ism and Social Protest in Lebanon,” 156-78.

9. Sayigh, “Israel’s military performance in Lebanon, June 1982,” 24-65.

10. Saseen, “The Taif Accord and Lebanon’s Struggle to Regain its Sovereignty,” 57.

11. Faour, “The Demography of Lebanon,’ 909-921.

12. Interview with Nazih Mansour

13. Interview with Muhammed Afif

14. O’Balance, “Hezbollah in Lebanon.”

15. Wilmsen, “Nasrallah and the Compromise and Rehabilitations of Hizbullah’s Reputation.”

16. Alagha, The Shifts in Hizbullah’s Ideology.

17. Interview with Hisham Jaber.

18. Interview with Elias Farahat.

19. Interview with a senior Hezbollah commander who requested anonymity.

20. Garrison, “Argentina Brands Hezbollah Terrorist Organization, Freezes Assets.”

21. See note 18 above.

22. Ynet News, “Operation Grapes of Wrath.”

23. Quoted Gabrielson, “Hezbollah’s Strategy and Tactics in the Security Zone from 1985 to 2000,” 1-11.

24. Interview with Nazih Mansour.

25. Interview with Muhammed Afif.

26. See note 17 above.

27. Ibid.

28. See note 25 above.

29. Samaan, “From War to Deterrence?”

30. Cohen-Almagor and Haleva-Amir, “The Israeli–Hezbollah war and the Winograd committee.”

31. Human Rights Watch, “Why they Died?”

32. Katz, “Analysis: ’Depth Corps’ a Sign of Regional Threats.”

33. Cohen, “Why Does Israel Need Three different Missile Systems?”

34. Bartels, “Is the Iron Dome a Poisoned Chalice?”

35. Gross, “IDF: Iron Dome Fires Mistakenly in Response for Hamas Drill.”

36. Almog, “Cumulative Deterrence and the War on Terrorism,” 1.

37. Yadlin, “Deterrence, Miscalculation, and the Next Round.”

38. Nasr, “Israel warns Hezbollah war would Invite Destruction.”

39. Samaan, “The Dahya Concept and Israeli Military Posture vis-à-vis Hezbollah since 2006,” 146-59.

40. Kenner, “Why Israel Fears Iran’s Presence in Syria.”

41. Rosenfeld, “Are Israel and Hezbollah preparing for war?”

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43. AlMoqawama, “The Speech of Hassan Nasrallah of the Anniversary of Martyrdom.”

44. AlMoqawama, “A Speech by Hassan Nasrallah for the Celebration of the Resistance and the Liberation in 2010.”

45. See note 25 above.

46. Interview with a source at Hezbollah who requested anonymity.

47. Kattan, “Future Challenges for Israel’s Iron Dome Rocket Defenses.”

48. See note 25 above.

49. Interview with Elias Farhat.

50. Arlosoroff, “For Decades, Everyone have Avoided Taking Responsibility for Civil Defense in Israel.”

51. See note 25 above.

52. Carmit and Schweitzer, “Hezbollah’s Concept of Deterrence vis-à-vis Israel,” 115-128.

53. Samaan, “The Strategic Bargain of Israel-Hezbollah Deterrence,” 1053-1070.

54. Magid, “IDF Publishes Photos Purporting to Expose Hezbollah Precision Missiles Factory.”

55. Samaan, “From War to Deterrence?”

56. Saab and Blanford, “The Next War: How Another Conflict Between Hizballah and Israel Could Look and How Both Sides are Preparing for It.”

57. Levinson and Solomon, “Syria Gave Scuds to Hezbollah, US says.”

58. CSIS Missile Defense Project. Fateh-110. Center for Strategic and International Studies.

59. Kenner, “Why Israel Fears Iran’s Presence.”

60. Keck, “Israel’s Greatest Weakness.”

61. Udasin, “Israeli Ammonia Tank Threatened by Hezbollah ordered emptied by July 31.”

62. Hubbard, Karasz, and Stanley Reed, “Two Major Saudi Oil Installations Hit by Drone Strike, and the US Blame Iran.”

63. Gross, “IDF Deploys Additional Iron Dome Batteries after Gaza rockets Levels Israeli Home.”

64. Dyer, “Question Marks over Israel much-Lauded Iron Dome after it failed to Intercept Hunderseds of Missiles During a Two-Day Attack.”

65. Postol, “The Evidence that Shows.”

66. Ibid

67. Farley, “The Cost of the Iron Dome.”

68. Kurtzer, “Israel and Hezbollah.”

69. Interview with Ali Fadhallah, a professor of political studies in the American University of Beirut.

70. Avi Issacharoff, “Hezbollah’s Secret, Grandiose Plan to Invade Israel in the Post-Tunnel Era.”

71. See note 17 above.

72. Shaikh, “Missiles and Rockets of Hezbollah.”

73. Cavanugh, “Russia is teaching Hezbollah some terrifying new tricks from War is Boring.”

74. France24, “Hezbollah shows “Missile Arsenal” used Against Israeli Warship.”

75. Ynet News, “Nasrallah Threatens to Hit Ships.”

76. Osmo, “Hezbollah Threatens Israeli Offshore Gas Rigs with Missiles.”

77. Hafezi, “From War to Diplomacy, Iran Weighs Response to Soleimani’s Killing.”

78. Rotella, “Alleged Hezbollah plot in Azerbaijan.”

79. Ravid, “Israel Closes Missions in Turkey Due to Hezbollah Threat.”

80. BBCNews, “Hezbollah linked to Burgas bus bombing in Bulgaria.”

81. Ravid, “Hezbollah Members Arrested in Thailand Admit to Planning Attack on Israeli Tourists.”

82. Levitt, “Inside Hezbollah’s European Plots.”

83. Al-Aloosy, The Changing Ideology of Hezbollah.

84. Khashan, Hizbullah: A Mission to Nowhere.

85. Al‐Aloosy, “Hezbollah in Syria,” 1–14.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Massaab Al-Aloosy

Massaab Al-Aloosy holds a PhD from the Fletcher School – Tufts University, he is the author of the Changing Ideology of Hezbollah – Palgrave 2020, and his research focuses on Iraq, Iran, and Shia armed groups.