https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5948-5944
![Sample our Politics & International Relations journals, sign in here to start your FREE access for 14 days]({"type":"image" , "src" : "/sda/5947/TOC-Subject-Sample-2021-Politics-International-Relations.jpg"})
ABSTRACT
A gray zone conflict that emerged after the Russian annexation of Crimea was an element of the Russian strategy of establishing and consolidating a new and more favourable internationally recognized maritime order in the Black Sea, Kerch Strait, and the Sea of Azov. Empirical data shows that Russian superiority over Ukraine and inferiority vis-a-vis the West shaped a double asymmetry of its tactics of projecting power against Ukraine while avoiding confrontation with the West. Eventually, Moscow reached a point where the gray zone tactics could not secure its objectives. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 signalled the exhausting coercive potential of a gray zone conflict. Although, despite of transition to conventional warfare, we found continuity of ‘gray zone’ tactics of double asymmetry and denying responsibility in the Russian playbook. Hence, a possible de-escalation of the Russia – Ukraine war may likely return to a gray zone conflict.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).
Correction Statement
This article has been corrected with minor changes. These changes do not impact the academic content of the article.
Notes
1. Galeotti, ‘Hybrid, Ambiguous.”
2. Bowen, “Coercive Diplomacy.”
3. Garment, “Gray-Zone Conflict Management.”
4. Holmes, “Deterring China.”
5. Jordan, “International Competition.”
6. Skaridov, “The Sea of Azov”, 223.
7. “Agreement on Fisheries.”
8. “Survival of Azov Sea incident.”
9. Murphy, “Russia-Ukraine Ties Founder.”
10. Ukraine v. Russian Federation, PCA, 240.
11. Renz, “Russia and “hybrid warfare”, 2.
12. Dzhaparova, “Occupation in Focus”.
13. Forsberg, “Russian Discourse,” 211.
14. Green et al., “Russia”s attack on Ukraine.”
15. “National Defense Program Guidelines.”
16. Green et al., Countering Coercion in Maritime Asia, 25.
17. Jia, “The Principle of the Domination.”
18. United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
19. Patalano, “When strategy is “hybrid”“, 5.
20. See note 17 above.
21. Holmes, “Deterring China”, 2.
22. Green et al., Countering Coercion in Maritime Asia, 28.
23. Ukraine v. Russian Federation, PCA Award, 357.
24. Kormych & Malyarenko, “Strengthening Ukraine”s Black Sea Navy.”
25. Kontorovich, “Economic Dealings with Occupied Territories,” 629.
26. Kormych, Averochkina, & Gaverskyi “Public administration of territorial seas,” 587.
27. “VTS Services.”
28. “Ukrainian Ships Are Sailing.”
29. Malyarenko and Wolff, Dynamics of Emerging De-Facto States, 8.
30. Green et al., Countering Coercion in Maritime Asia, 26–29.
31. “Comment by Foreign Ministry.”
32. “Putin says annexation of Crimea.”
33. “Transcript: Vladimir Putin”s Televised Address on Ukraine.”
34. “Kerch Strait Incident.”
35. Lott, “Implications of Hybrid Warfare.”
36. “HMS Defender.”
37. Adams, “Classified Ministry of Defence documents.”
38. Malyarenko and Kormych, “Symbolism of Military Diplomacy.”
39. Kontorovich, “Economic Dealings with Occupied Territories.”
40. “Defying the law.”
41. “Russia – Kerch Port Loading.”
42. See note 26 above 587.
43. Babin et al., “Attempted Annexation,” 35–36.
44. “Treasury Sanctions Russia.”
45. “Ukraine: EU responds to escalation.”
46. Ukraine v. Russian Federation, ITLOS.
47. See above 35.
48. “Continuation of Russian Militarization.”
49. Cooper and Shearer, “Thinking clearly about China”s,” 305.
50. van Hooft, “Don”t Knock Yourself Out.”
51. Belton, “Russia will stop.”
52. “Maritime Doctrine of the Russian Federation.”
53. “Crimea Behind the Curtain,” 145.
54. Goble, “Moscow Moving 15 Warships.”
55. “Occupiers transferred armored boats.”
56. “Presence of Russian Warships in the Mediterranean Sea.”
57. Ozberk, “Turkey Closes the Dardanelles.”
58. Kaushal and Cranny-Evans, “How Russia”s Black Sea Fleet.”
59. Kormych and Averochkina, “Ukrainian Maritime Industry under Fire.”
60. Roshchina, “Russia has changed tactics.”
61. “Russia has fired 2,500 missiles.”
62. Lardner, “USS Louisville fired first TLAM.”
63. “How Many “Iskander” and “Kalibr.”
64. See note 56 above.
65. See note 60 above.
66. Ozberk, “Russia”s Amphibious Operation.”
67. Sabbagh, “Snake Island does job.”
68. See note 58 above.
69. Arkin, “Exclusive: Russia”s Air War.”
70. “List Of Naval Losses.”
71. Kime, “Russia Reportedly Sinks.”
72. “Russian invaders.”
73. Armstrong, “D – All of The Above.”
74. Sanders, “Rebuilding the Ukrainian Navy.”
75. Mitch, “Gurza-M class.”
76. “Strategy of the Naval Forces.”
77. Strike, “Former U.S. Coast Guard.”
78. “Ukraine has developed a doctrine.”
79. Kabanenko, “Ukraine”s New Naval Doctrine.”
80. Lye, “Ukraine to boost naval capabilities.”
81. “Ukraine – Mark VI Patrol Boats.”
82. Brown, “Britain in Talks to Sell Missiles.”
83. “Ukrainian Navy.”
84. “Ship of the Ukrainian Navy “Balta”.
85. Obozrevatel. “How the Russian ship was destroyed.”
86. Sutton, “Russian Navy”s 5 Significant Losses.”
87. “Turkish, Ukrainian firms.”
88. Cetiner, “Baykar Defense Delivers.”
89. “Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.”
90. See note 70 above.
91. “Ground-Based Tor SAM.”
92. “Poroshenko ordered.”
93. “Vilkha M.”
94. “Neptune Cruise Anti-Ship Missile.”
95. “Oleksandr Turchynov.”
96. “Neptune: Analyzing Ukraine”s.”
97. “Announced numbers of “Neptune”.
98. Sutton, “Satellite Images Confirm.”
99. Filseth, “Ukrainian Attack Sinks.”
100. See note 86 above.
101. Armstrong, “Russo-Ukrainian War at Sea.”
102. “Revenge for the shelling of Odessa.”
103. “United Kingdom will supply.”
104. “Reznikov: Ukraine”s coastal defence.”
105. “Border Guard Project.”
106. Miller, “Fast Attack.”
107. Militarnyi, “Ukrainian Navy.”
108. Roblin, “Ukraine Blasts Russian Tug.”
109. Hurak and D”Anieri, “The Evolution of Russian Political Tactics.”
110. “Activity of seaports.”
111. Mykhailov, “Export, Import Issues.”
112. “Food and Agriculture Organization.”
113. “Security Risks in the Black Sea.”
114. “Seaports of Ukraine transshipped.”
115. “Ukraine Says Russia Blocking.”
116. “Statement by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.”
117. “Ministry of Infrastructure.”
118. See note 101 above.
119. See note 110 above.
120. Council of Europe.
121. Munoz, “Lawfare in Hybrid Wars.”
122. OSCE, “Report on Violations.”
123. Rosenberg, “Lavrov: Russia is not.”
124. “Busting European Union myths.”
125. “San Remo Manual.”
126. “Rosmorrechflot confirms.”
127. Konrad, “Northern Black Sea.”
128. See note 122 above.
129. “Russian Invasion of Ukraine.”
130. Harris, “U.S. intelligence.”
131. Longobardo, “Rhetoric of Denazification.”
132. Wittke, “Politics of International Law,” 189.
133. Pedrozo, “Ukraine Symposium.”
134. Kholodnova, “Ukraine returns Russian-captured.”
135. Drew, “Blockade?”
136. “Comment of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.”
137. Lister and Fylyppov, “Russian ships carrying.”
138. Sutton, “Ukraine War Grain.”
139. “Russians threatened to fire.”
140. Ilyushina. “Russian forces withdraw.”
141. Daalder, “How to End.”
142. “Ukrainian grain export.”
143. “Guterres condemns.”
144. Ukrainian military budgetary resources were primarily focused on ground forces.
145. US Department of Defense. “Contracts For 30 September 2021.”
146. See note 77 above.
147. Allison, “UK giving two Sandown.”
148. “Small warships for Ukraine.”
149. Bekdil, “Ukrainian official reveals number.”
150. Vavasseur, “Ukraine Inks Contract.”
Additional information
Funding
Notes on contributors
Borys Kormych
Borys Kormych is a Doctor of Law Science, Professor, Head of Department of Maritime, and Customs Law at National University Odessa Law Academy. He is also the Editor-in-chief of Lex Portus journal.
Tetyana Malyarenko
Tetyana Malyarenko is a Doctor of Public Administration, Jean Monnet Professor of European Security, Research Fellow at Leibniz-Institute for East and Southeast European Studies.