Global food-price shocks and poor people – an overview

Abstract

Hunger has been on the rise since the mid-1990s, due to a variety of factors, including a lack of policy attention and a sense of complacency generated by long-term real declines in food prices. Food prices rose sharply after 2006, and there is considerable controversy over the reasons why. Analysts have pointed to a number of factors as possible causes, including rising fuel prices, diversion of food crops into biofuels, speculation, increased meat consumption in Asia, climate change, and environmental degradation, among others. There is disagreement about both the role played by some of these factors in driving up prices, and also the weight to assign to each specific factor. Discussion of the consequences of higher food prices has been based primarily on modelling; this special issue of Development in Practice presents some new modelling results, as well as results from field research on the actual consequences for poor farmers and consumers in developing, transition, and developed countries. The price increases led to sometimes violent protests in scores of countries in 2007–08, thereby putting hunger back on the front policy burner. Food prices spiked in mid-2008 and remained well above the levels of the early 2000s, globally, throughout 2009–10. By December 2010, prices had risen again, surpassing the peaks of 2008. There is consensus concerning policy prescriptions on what to do about higher food prices; this is embodied, for example, in the UN's Comprehensive Framework for Action of 2008. However, the authors of a number of the articles in this special issue find limitations to that consensus and offer additional policy prescriptions.

Chocs mondiaux des prix des produits alimentaires et personnes pauvres: un aperçu

La faim augmente depuis le milieu des années 1990, à cause d'une variété de facteurs, dont l'indifférence des décideurs et une certaine complaisance générée par de véritables baisses sur le long terme des prix des produits alimentaires. Les prix des produits alimentaires ont fortement augmenté après 2006, et les raisons de cette augmentation font l'objet d'une importante controverse. Les analystes ont signalé un certain nombre de facteurs comme causes possibles, y compris l'augmentation des prix des carburants, le détournement des cultures alimentaires la production de biocarburants, la spéculation, la consommation accrue de viande en Asie, les changements climatiques et la dégradation de l'environnement, entre autres. Il y a un certain désaccord sur le rôle joué par certains de ces facteurs dans la montée de prix, ainsi que sur le poids à assigner à chaque facteur particulier. La discussion des conséquences de la hausse des prix des produits alimentaires s'est principalement basée sur des exercices de modélisation; ce numéro spécial de Development in Practice présente quelques nouveaux résultats de modélisations, ainsi que les résultats de recherches menées sur le terrain sur les véritables conséquences pour les agriculteurs et consommateurs pauvres dans les pays en développement, en transition et développés. Les augmentations des prix ont abouti à des manifestations parfois violentes dans des dizaines de pays en 2007-08, ce qui a eu pour effet de remettre la faim en bonne place à l'ordre du jour des décideurs. Les prix des produits alimentaires ont atteint leur maximum vers le milieu de 2008 et sont restés bien au-dessus des niveaux du début des années 2000, ce dans le monde entier, tout au long de 2009-2010. En décembre 2010, les prix ont à nouveau augmenté, dépassant les maximums de 2008. Il y a un certain consensus sur les prescriptions de politique générale concernant la marche à suivre pour faire face à des prix des produits alimentaires élevés; ceci est représenté par exemple par le Cadre global d'action de l'ONU de 2008. Cependant, les auteurs d'un certain nombre d'articles figurant dans ce numéro spécial constatent des limites à ce consensus et proposent des prescriptions supplémentaires en matière de politique générale.

Choques dos preços dos alimentos globais e as pessoas pobres – uma visão geral

O problema da fome tem aumentado desde meados da década de 1990 devido a vários fatores, incluindo a falta de atenção das políticas e um senso de complacência gerado por reduções reais nos preços dos alimentos no longo prazo. O preço dos alimentos subiram drasticamente após 2006 e há uma considerável controvérsia sobre seus motivos. Analistas têm indicado vários fatores como as causas possíveis, incluindo o aumento nos preços de combustível, desvio da produção de alimentos para biocombustíveis, especulação, aumento do consumo de carne na Ásia, mudanças climáticas e destruição ambiental, entre outros. Existe divergência sobre o papel desempenhado por alguns destes fatores no aumento dos preços e também sobre o peso a ser dado para cada fator específico. As discussões sobre as consequências dos preços de alimentos mais altos têm se baseado principalmente em modelagem; esta edição especial da Development in Practice apresenta alguns novos resultados de modelo e também resultados de pesquisa de campo sobre as consequências reais para produtores rurais e consumidores pobres nos países em desenvolvimento, em transição e desenvolvidos. O aumento dos preços provocou protestos, muitas vezes violentos, em vários países em 2007–08, colocando assim a questão da fome novamente no fronte de discussões polêmicas sobre políticas. O preço dos alimentos aumentou em meados de 2008 e permaneceu bem acima dos níveis do início da década de 2000 globalmente durante todo o período de 2009–10. Em dezembro de 2010, os preços subiram novamente, superando os picos de 2008. Existe um consenso a respeito das prescrições de políticas relativas ao que se fazer sobre os preços de alimentos mais altos; isto está incorporado, por exemplo, na “Comprehensive Framework for Action” (Estrutura de Ação Abrangente) da ONU de 2008. Contudo, autores de vários artigos desta edição especial constatam limitações a este consenso e prescrevem políticas adicionais.

La inestabilidad mundial de los precios de los alimentos y los pobres: una perspectiva general

El hambre en el mundo ha aumentado desde mediados de los años 90 debido a varios factores, entre ellos la falta de políticas que aborden el problema y la complacencia por el descenso de los precios reales de los alimentos durante años. Los precios de los alimentos sufrieron fuertes alzas a partir de 2006 y no hay acuerdo respecto a las causas. Algunos de los factores de estas alzas señalados por los analistas son el aumento en el precio de los combustibles, el uso de cultivos alimenticios para producir agrocombustibles, la especulación, el aumento en el consumo de carne en Asia, el cambio climático y la contaminación ambiental. No hay acuerdo sobre cómo han influido estos factores en el alza de precios ni sobre la importancia de cada uno. El debate sobre las consecuencias del aumento de los precios de los alimentos se ha centrado en diferentes modelos. En este número especial de Development in Practice se exponen los resultados de nuevos modelos econométricos y de investigaciones de campo sobre las consecuencias para los campesinos y los consumidores de los países en desarrollo, en transición o desarrollados. En 2007 y 2008, las alzas en los precios desencadenaron protestas, a veces violentas, en decenas de países, las cuales pusieron el tema del hambre al frente de las políticas públicas. Los precios de los alimentos subieron rápidamente a mediados de 2008, y durante 2009 y 2010 permanecieron en todo el mundo en un nivel muy por encima del que existía a principios de la década de los 2000. Volvieron a aumentar en diciembre de 2010, rebasando las subidas registradas en 2008. Se tomaron acuerdos sobre la respuesta política necesaria para este ascenso en los precios de los alimentos, por ejemplo, la que contempla el Marco Amplio para la Acción de la ONU de 2008. Sin embargo, los autores de varios ensayos de este número especial muestran reservas sobre este marco y plantean otras posibles políticas públicas.

Keywords:

• Environment
• Labour and livelihoods
• Globalisation

Notes

Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.

Source: International Monetary Fund.Notes: Data are deflated using the US Bureau of Economic Analysis gross-domestic-product deflator. The 2008 data are for July.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Marc J. Cohen

Marc J. Cohen (corresponding author) is Senior Researcher on Humanitarian Policy and Climate Change at Oxfam America, and an adjunct faculty member at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University. Before joining Oxfam in 2008, he was a research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute. His research has focused on the world food situation and outlook, conflict and food security, protection of civilians in conflict and post-conflict situations, the right to food, food-aid reform, gender issues in rural development, social protection policies, and the food-security and nutrition effects of climate change and bioenergy. He has conducted field research in Ethiopia, Haiti, Taiwan, Thailand, Uganda, and the United States. Cohen is co-editor (with Jennifer Clapp) of The Global Food Crisis: Governance Challenges and Opportunities (Waterloo, Ontario: Wilfrid Laurier University Press, 2009) and (with Brian Thompson) Impact of Climate Change and Bioenergy on Nutrition (Dordrecht, the Netherlands: Springer, forthcoming in 2011).

Melinda Smale

Melinda Smale is an agricultural economist and independent consultant. From 2008 to 2010, she was Senior Researcher, Agriculture and Trade, at Oxfam America. From 2002 to 2008, she was a senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute, where she led a global research programme aimed at promoting the sustainable utilisation of crop genetic resources in developing-country agriculture, initially as a joint programme with Bioversity International. Research addressed the impacts of biotechnology crops, agricultural biodiversity, local seed markets, and underutilised crops. From 1989 to 2000, in Malawi and later in Mexico, she analysed the adoption and impacts of improved wheat and maize seed as an economist for the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT). During the 1980s, Smale worked in Pakistan, Somalia, Mauritania, and Niger on short-term assignments for CIMMYT, Chemonics International, Volunteers in Technical Assistance (VITA), and the US Agency for International Development. She is an honorary fellow at Bioversity International, serves on the Advisory Committee of the Collaborative Crops Research Program of the McKnight Foundation, and is on the editorial committees of several journals. <[email protected]>