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The Sense of Power and Foreign Policy Hawkishness: An Exchange

Elite Persuasion, Threat Perception, and Ideological Mobilization: The Real Drivers of Hawkish Public Attitudes

Published online: 30 May 2024
 

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1 See Charles A. Kupchan, Isolationism: A History of America’s Efforts to Shield Itself from the World (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2020), p. 143.

2 Kupchan, Isolationism, chapter 6.

3 Kupchan, Isolationism, p. 255.

4 Gallup and Fortune Polls,” Public Opinion Quarterly, vol. 6, no. 1 (Spring 1942), p. 164. The American Institute of Public Opinion (AIPO) reported a poll on October 4, 1941, in which seventy-nine percent of respondents said the “U.S. should not enter war now.”

5 See, for example, Alexandra Guisinger and Elizabeth Saunders, “Mapping the Boundaries of Elite Cues: How Elites Shape Mass Opinion across International Issues,” International Studies Quarterly, Volume 61, Issue 2, June 2017, Pages 425–441; Peter Trubowitz, Politics and Strategy: Partisan Ambition and American Statecraft (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2011); John R. Zaller, The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion, (Cambridge University Press, 1992); James Rosenau, Public Opinion and Foreign Policy: An Operational Formulation, (Random House, 1961); Douglas C. Foyle, Public Opinion and Foreign Policy: Elite Beliefs as a Mediating Variable, International Studies Quarterly, Volume 41, Issue 1, March 1997, Pages 141–169, https://doi.org/10.1111/0020-8833.00036.; Matthew A. Baum, and Philip B.K. Potter. “The Relationships Between Mass Media, Public Opinion, and Foreign Policy: Toward a Theoretical Synthesis.” Annual Review of Political Science 11, no. 1 (June 1, 2008): 39–65. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.

11.060406.214132.

6 For data on negative views of the United States in China, see Adam Y. Liu, Xiaojun Li, and Songying Fang. “How Do the Chinese People View the ‘West’? Divergence and Asymmetry in China’s Public Opinion of the U.S. and Europe.” Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institution, (2021). https://sccei.fsi.stanford.edu/china-briefs/how-do-chinese-people-view-west-divergence-and-asymmetry-chinas-public-opinion-us-and; for data on negative views of China in the United States, see Craig Kafura. “American Views of China Remain at Record Lows.” The Chicago Council on Global Affairs, (October 2022). https://globalaffairs.org/research/public-opinion-survey/american-views-china-remain-record-lows.

8 Patricia Zengerle and Michael Martina, “US House Panel on China Cites ‘Existential Struggle’ at First Hearing, February 28, 2023, https://www.reuters.com/world/us/first-us-house-china-select-committee-focus-human-rights-2023-02-28/.

9 Keith Bradsher, “Why Xi Jinping Blames U.S. Containment for China’s Troubles − The New York Times.” New York Times, March 7, 2023. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/07/

world/asia/china-us-xi-jinping.html..

10 Vladimir Putin. “Address by the President of the Russian Federation.” President of Russia, February 24, 2022. http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news.

11 Reuters, “Putin Casts War in Ukraine as a Battle for Russia’s Survival,” February 26, 2023,https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/26/putin-casts-war-as-a-battle-for-russias-survival.html.

12 See, for example, the Fritz Fischer, Germany’s Aims in the First World War (New York: W. W. Norton, 1968); and Eckart Kehr, Economic Interest, Militarism, and Foreign Policy: Essays on German History (Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1977.

13 William McKinley. “Message to Congress Requesting a Declaration of War With Spain | The American Presidency Project,” April 11, 1898, https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu

/documents/message-congress-requesting-declaration-war-with-spain.

14 General James F. Rusling, “Interview with President McKinley,” Christian Advocate, vol. 78, no. 4, January 22, 1903, p. 17; William McKinley, “Speech at Charlton, Iowa,” October 13, 1898, in Speeches and Addresses of William McKinley: From March 1, 1897 to May 30, 1900 (New York: Doubleday and McClure, 1900), p. 114.

15 William A. Galston, “Republicans Are Turning against Aid to Ukraine.” Brookings, August 8, 2023, https://www.brookings.edu/articles/republicans-are-turning-against-aid-to-ukraine/.

16 See, for example, Derek Chollet and James Goldgeier, America Between the Wars: From 11/9 to 9/11 (New York: Public Affairs, 2008); and Charles A. Kupchan, The End of the American Era: U.S. Foreign Policy and the Geopolitics of the Twenty-First Century (New York: Knopf, 2002), chap. 6.

17 Tyndall Report, as cited in David Shaw, “Foreign News Shrinks in an Era of Globalization,” Los Angeles Times, Sept. 27, 2001.

18 See, for example, Ivan Musicant, Empire by Default: The Spanish-American War and the Dawn of the American Century (New York: Henry Holt, 1998).

19 Charles Kupchan, The Vulnerability of Empire (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1994). For work linking perceptions of weakness to hawkish policies, see Patrick Morgan, “Saving Face for the Sake of Deterrence,” in Psychology and Deterrence, ed., Robert Jervis, Richard Led Lebow, and Janice Gross Stein, (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1985); and Robert Jervis, “Deterrence Theory Revisited,” World Politics, vol. 31 (January 1979).

20 See Charles Kupchan, How Enemies Become Friends: The Sources of Stable Peace (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2010).

21 See, for example, Danielle Pletka. “Barack Obama—Our Appeaser in Chief.” American Enterprise Institute, January 24, 2014, https://www.aei.org/articles/barack-obama-our-appeaser-in-chief/.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Charles A. Kupchan

Charles A. Kupchan is professor of International Affairs at Georgetown University and Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. His most recent book is Isolationism: A History of America’s Efforts to Shield Itself from the World.

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