980
Views
3
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Original Articles

Christian Democracy is Dead; Long Live the Union Parties: Explaining CDU/CSU Dominance within the German Party System

Pages 64-81 | Published online: 14 Jun 2013
 

Abstract

Since 1949, the CDU/CSU has been the dominant party grouping in the German party system yet has rarely occupied the political centre ground, as represented by the so-called median legislator within the Bundestag. This article seeks to explain the paradox of how a right of centre party faction came to dominate what has historically been seen as a consensual and centrist party system by drawing upon the conceptual tools of (1) formal coalition theory and (2) the notions of path-dependence, rules, norms, beliefs and standard operating procedures. The article argues there is little reason to believe that the pattern of dominance established over the last six decades is in any immediate danger.

Notes

D. Enste, ‘Soziale Markwirtschaft aus Ordnungspolitischer Sicht: in Anlehnung an Walter Euckens “Grundsätze der Wirtschaftspolitik”’, Roman Herzog Institut Discussion Paper, Munich, 2006.

R. Inglehart, The Silent Revolution: Changing Values and Political Styles among Western Publics (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1977).

M. Prinz, ‘German Social Democracy and the New Middle Class: Practice as an Obstacle to Theory’, International Journal of Politics, Culture, and Society 4/2 (1990), pp. 181–95.

C. Lees, ‘The Paradoxical Effects of Decline: Assessing Party System Change and the Role of the Catch-All Parties in Germany Following the 2009 Federal Election’, Party Politics 18/4 (2012), pp. 545–62.

F. Pappi, ‘The West German Party System’, West European Politics 7/4 (1984), pp. 7–26.

R. Dalton, I. McCallister and M. Wattenberg, ‘The Consequences of Partisan Dealignment’, in R. Dalton and M. Wattenberg (eds), Parties without Partisans: Electoral Change in Advanced Industrial Democracies (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2002), pp. 37–63; see also R. Dalton, Citizen Politics: Public Opinion and Political Parties in Advanced Industrial Democracies (Chatham, NJ: Chatham House, 1996).

T. Saalfeld, ‘The German Party System: Continuity and Change’, German Politics 11/3 (2002), pp. 99–130.

O. Niedermayer, ‘Das Parteiensystem Deutschlands’, in R. Stöss, M. Hass and O. Niedermayer (eds), Die Parteiensysteme Westeuropas (Wiesbaden: VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften, 2006), pp. 109–33.

A. de Swaan, Coalition Theories and Cabinet Formation (Amsterdam: Elsevier, 1973).

G. Smith, ‘Does Western German Democracy Have an “Efficient Secret”?’, West European Politics 4/2 (1981), pp. 166–76.

W. Streeck and K. Thelen, Beyond Continuity: Institutional Change in Advanced Political Economies (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2005).

R. Dahrendorf, Society and Democracy in Germany (London: Weidenfeld and Nicolson, 1967).

A. Siaroff, Comparative European Party Systems: An Analysis of Parliamentary Elections since 1945 (New York: Garland, 2000), here p. 20.

Available from the Electoral Systems website http://www.tcd.ie/Political_Science/staff/michael_gallagher/ElSystems/index.php (accessed 1 March 2012).

M. Gallagher, ‘Proportionality, Disproportionality and Electoral Systems’, Electoral Studies 10/1 (1991), pp. 33–51.

M. Laakso and R. Taagepera, ‘“Effective” Number of Parties: A Measure with Application to West Europe’, Comparative Political Studies 12/1 (1979), pp. 3–27.

Where appropriate figures have been rounded up/down to three significant figures after the decimal point.

O. Herfindahl, ‘Concentration in the US Steel Industry’, [unpublished] doctoral thesis, Columbia University, 1950; A. Hirschman, ‘The Paternity of an Index’, American Economic Review 54/5 (1964), pp. 761–2.

To demonstrate how the Herfindal-Hirschman index work in the analysis of party systems, let us look at three ideal types: (1) one-party rule; (2) a classic two-party majoritarian system; and (3) a ‘pure’ multi-party system, all set in a fictional legislature of 100 seats with a simple ‘decision rule’ (i.e. the criteria for commanding a legislative majority) of 50 per cent + one seat. Under conditions of one-party rule, the ruling party controls all 100 seats and this yields the maximum possible score of 1. Multi-party systems of all kinds yield scores of less than 1 and our ideal-type two-party majoritarian system (based on the ruling party controlling fifty-one seats and the opposition party forty-nine seats, with no third parties) would yield a score of 0.5, whilst a pure multi-party system (100 parties, each holding one seat each) would yield a score of 0.001.

G. Golosov, ‘The Effective Number of Parties: A New Approach’, Party Politics 16/2 (2010), pp. 171–92; also D.D. Rae, The Political Consequences of Electoral Laws (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1967).

J. Banzhaf, ‘Weighted Voting Doesn't Work: A Mathematical Analysis’, Rutgers Law Review 19 (1964–65), pp. 317–43.

A. Gelman, J. Katz and F. Tuerlinckx, ‘The Mathematics and Statistics of Voting Power’, Statistical Science 174 (2002), pp. 420–35.

C. Lees, ‘The German Party System(s) in 2005 – a Return to Volkspartei Dominance’, German Politics 15/4 (2006), pp. 361–75.

C. Lees, The Red–Green Coalition in Germany: Politics, Personalities and Power (Manchester: Manchester University Press, 2000).

De Swaan, Coalition Theories.

N. Schofield, ‘The Heart of a Polity’, in N. Schofield (ed.), Collective Decision-Making: Social Choice and Political Economy (Boston, MA: Kluwer, 1996); N. Schofield, ‘Coalition Politics: A Formal Model and Empirical Analysis’, Journal of Theoretical Politics 7/3 (1995), pp. 245–81; N. Schofield, ‘Political Competition and Multi-Party Coalition Government’, European Journal of Political Research 23/1 (1993), pp. 1–33; M. Laver and K. Shepsle, ‘Coalitions and Cabinet Government’, American Political Science Review 84/3 (1990), pp. 873–90.

See P. Warwick, ‘Coalition Policy in Parliamentary Democracies: Who Gets How Much and Why?’, Comparative Political Studies 34/10 (2001), pp. 1212–36; also I. Budge and M. Laver, ‘The Policy Basis of Government Coalitions: A Comparative Investigation’, British Journal of Political Science 23/4 (1993), pp. 499–519; I. Budge and M. Laver, ‘The Relationship between Party and Coalition Policy in Europe. A Synthesis’, in M. Laver and I. Budge (eds), Party Policy and Government Coalitions (New York: St Martin's Press, 1992), pp. 409–30.

C. Lees, ‘Rule-Makers and Rule Takers: On Volkspartei Adaptation and Strategy’, German Politics 19/1 (2010), pp. 89–104.

A. Arthur, ‘Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns and Lock-in by Historical Events’, Economic Journal 97 (1989), pp. 642–5; J. Mokyr, ‘Evolutionary Biology, Technological Change and Economic History’, Bulletin of Economic Research 43/2 (1991), pp. 127–47.

L. Bebchuck and M. Roe, ‘A Theory of Path Dependence in Corporate Governance and Ownership’, Columbia Law School Working Paper Series No. 192414, New York, 1999.

A. Sen, ‘Markets and Freedom: Achievements and Limitations of the Market Mechanism in Promoting Individual Freedoms’, Oxford Economic Papers 45/4 (1993), pp. 519–41; D. Fudenberg and J. Tirole, Game Theory (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1983); M. Osborne and A. Rubenstein, A Course in Game Theory (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1994).

A. Krueger, ‘The Political Economy of the Rent Seeking Society’, American Economic Review 64/3 (1974), pp. 291–303.

E. Wiesendahl, ‘Der Marsch aus den Institutionen: Zur Organisationsschwåche politischer Parteien in den achtziger Jahren’, Aus Politik und Zeitgeschichte B21/90 (1990), p. 13.

E. Scheuch and U. Scheuch, Cliquen, Klüngel und Karrieren (Hamburg: Reinbek, 1992).

Lees, The Red–Green Coalition in Germany.

C. Lees, ‘Social Democracy and Structures of Governance in Britain and Germany: How Institutions and Norms Shape Political Innovation’, in L. Martell et al. (eds), Social Democracy: Global and National Perspectives (Basingstoke: Palgrave, 2001), pp. 160–78.

R. Katz and P. Mair, ‘Changing Models of Party Organization and Party Democracy: The Emergence of the Cartel Party’, Party Politics 1/1 (1995), pp. 5–28; R. Katz and P. Mair, ‘Cadre, Catch-All or Cartel? A Rejoinder’, Party Politics 2/4 (1996), pp. 525–34; R. Katz and P. Mair, ‘Ascendancy of the Party in Public Office: Party Organizational Change in Twentieth-Century Democracies’, in R. Gunther, R. Montero and J. Linz (eds), Political Parties: Old Concepts and New Challenges (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2002), pp. 113–35.

This move was significant because, up until then, Kohl had been wary of the CDU's East German sister-party because of its role as a bloc party under the old regime. However, Kohl was concerned by a string of opinion polls that indicated that the SPD was set for a comfortable victory at the first free Volkskammer elections planned for March. Kohl decided that the GDR electorate had to be given the opportunity to vote for a credible centre-right party that would mount a serious challenge to the SPD and that meant shelving his misgivings about the East German CDU.

Streeck and Thelen, Beyond Continuity.

S. Berglund, ‘The Breakdown of the German Democratic Republic’, in S. Berglund and J. Dellenbrant (eds), The New Democracies in Eastern Europe: Party Systems and Political Cleavages (Aldershot: Edward Elgar, 1994), pp. 117–41; S. Padgett, ‘The New German Electorate’, in S. Padgett (ed.), Parties and Party Systems in the New Germany (Aldershot: Dartmouth, 1993), here pp. 39–41; S. Padgett, ‘Superwahljahr in the New Länder: Polarisation in an Open Political Market’, in German Politics 4/2 (1995), pp. 75–94, here p. 87; P. Gluchowski and U. von Wilamowitz-Moellendorff, ‘Sozialstrukturelle Grundlagen des Parteienwettbewerbs in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland’, in O. Gabriel et al. (eds), Parteiendemokratie in Deutschland (Opladen: Westdeutscher Verlag, 1997), pp. 197–208.

D. Hough, M. Koß and J. Olsen, The Left Party in Contemporary German Politics (Basingstoke: Palgrave, 2007); D. Hough, The Fall and Rise of the PDS in Eastern Germany (Birmingham: Birmingham University Press, 2001).

J. March and J. Olsen, ‘The New Institutionalism: Organizational Factors in Political Life’, American Political Science Review 78/3 (1984), pp. 734–49, here p. 738.

Streeck and Thelen, Beyond Continuity.

Log in via your institution

Log in to Taylor & Francis Online

PDF download + Online access

  • 48 hours access to article PDF & online version
  • Article PDF can be downloaded
  • Article PDF can be printed
USD 53.00 Add to cart

Issue Purchase

  • 30 days online access to complete issue
  • Article PDFs can be downloaded
  • Article PDFs can be printed
USD 300.00 Add to cart

* Local tax will be added as applicable

Related Research

People also read lists articles that other readers of this article have read.

Recommended articles lists articles that we recommend and is powered by our AI driven recommendation engine.

Cited by lists all citing articles based on Crossref citations.
Articles with the Crossref icon will open in a new tab.