When does the structural power of business fade? assessing business privileged access at global climate negotiations

Figures & data

Figure 1. Number of NSAs active at COP and included in delegations (1997–2011).

Table 1. Summary table of variables.

Variable	Description	Mean	Minus	Max	S.D.
DV: Bias	Being included (=1) in delegation or not (=0)	0.20	0	1	N.A.
H1: Group type	Business (=1); NGO (=0)	054	0	1	N.A.
H2: Wealth	GDP per capita in country (World Bank)	34.3	0.35	82.4	23.4
H3: Fossil fuel dependency	Alternative and nuclear energy indicator (World Bank)	11.28	0	49.1	9.68
H4: Democracy	Level of democracy in country (Polity4 index)	8.42	−10	.10	3.67
H5: Env. Vulnerability	Environmental vulnerability (UNEP)	308	181	428	49.8
C1: Economic output	Gross Domestic Product (World Bank)	3332	1.861	16,768	5533
C1: Size of government	Government expenditure per total GDP (World Bank)	0.31	0.05	0.57	0.13
C3: Saliency	Active at COP3 (Kyoto) or COP15 (Copenhagen)	0.22	0	1	N.A.

Figure 2. Business bias across countries (n = 72): positive score means there is business bias; negative score highlights an NGO bias.

The scores are calculated by subtracting the percentage business in the delegation from the percentage business as observers per country

Table 2. Logit analysis predicting likelihood of an organization participating in a country delegation at the COPs.

	Model 1	Model 2	Model 3	Model 4	Model 5
Main effects
Group type
Citizen	Ref.	Ref.	Ref.	Ref.	Ref.
Business	0.345*** (.106)	1.563*** (.171)	0.941*** (.150)	2.418*** (.326)	1.692** (.665)
GDP/cap	−0.008 (.006)	0.026*** (.006)	−0.008 (.006)	−0.003 (.006)	−0.007 (.006)
Fossil fuel dependency	−0.006 (.014)	−0.004 (.014)	0.017 (.014)	0.001 (.014)	−0.006 (.014)
Democracy (Polity)	−0.027 (.025)	−0.033 (.025)	−0.020 (.002)	−0.135*** (.037)	−0.025 (.025)
Environ. vulnerability	−0.005* (.002)	−0.006** (.002)	−0.004* (.002)	−0.004* (.002)	−0.003 (.002)
Interactions
Business (=reference)		Ref.
GDP/cap *Citizen		−0.039*** (.004)
Fossil depend.*Citizen			−0053*** (.009)
Democracy*Citizen				−0.248*** (.035)
Environ. Vuln.*Citizen					−0.0043** (.002)
Control variables
GDP	−0.000*** (.000)	−0.000*** (0.000)	−0.000*** (.000)	−0.000*** (0.000)	−0.000*** (.000)
Size of government	−0.162 (1.075)	−0.293 (1.099)	−0.340 (1.076)	−0.9119 (1.102)	−0.0675 (1.077)
Saliency	−0.790*** (.142)	−0.786*** (0.804)	−0.807*** (0.143)	−0.789*** (0.144)	−0.789*** (0.142)
Diagnostics
Constant	0.929 (0.787)	0.906 (0.804)	0.676 (0.790)	−0.155 (0.831)	0.328 (0.843)
Country level intercept	0.981 (.220)	1.020 (.232)	0.979 (.219)	1.009 (.228)	0.981 (.220)
Log-likelihood	1449.68	1404.45	1433.37	1418.32	1447.68
N	3,552	3,552	3,552	3,552	3,552

The model is a mixed-effects logistic regression which estimates a random intercept for all 136 countries. The dichotomous dependent variable is being included in delegation or not. Logit coefficients with standard errors in parentheses. Significance are presented, whereby:*P < 0.1; **P < 0.05; ***P < 0.01.

Figure 3. Predicted chance of being included in the delegation by group type (business & NGO).

Predicted chance for being included in delegation per group type, based on Model 1. Significance: * = 0.05;

Figure 4. Average marginal effects of being included in the delegation by group type and a country’s wealth (GDP/capita).

Marginal difference in business bias per level of wealth, based on Model 2. Significance: * = 0.05;

Figure 5. Average marginal effects of being included in the delegation by group type and a country’s dependence on fossil fuels (World Bank).

Figure 6. Average marginal effects of being included in the delegation by group type and a country’s level of democracy (POLITY index).

Marginal difference in business bias per level of democracy, based on Model 3. Significance: * = 0.05;

Figure 7. Average marginal effects of being included in the delegation by group type and a country’s vulnerability to climate change (UNEP).

Marginal difference in business bias per level of environmental vulnerability, based on Model 4. Significance: = 0.05;