How did EU membership of Eastern Europe affect student achievement?^*

* This paper was created while working at the ifo Institute at the University of Munich.

Figures & data

Figure 1. Evolution of reading achievement in Eastern Europe.

Note: The figure shows the demeaned reading score for each Eastern European entrant in each survey wave between 2000 and 2015. The score was demeaned by the average of all 32 countries in the sample. The red, dashed, vertical line signals the 2004 entries of the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, the Slovak Republic, and Slovenia. The green, dashed, vertical line indicates the 2007 entries of Bulgaria and Romania. The blue, dashed, vertical line designates the 2013 entry of Croatia. Country abbreviations stand for: Bulgaria (BGR), the Czech Republic (CZE), Estonia (EST), Croatia (HRV), Hungary (HUN), Lithuania (LTU), Latvia (LVA), Poland (POL), Romania (ROU), the Slovak Republic (SVK), and Slovenia (SVN).

Figure 2. Parallel trends of reading score by treatment and control group.

Note: The graphs depict the evolution of the demeaned reading score over time in the different treatment and control groups. The reading score was demeaned by the sample average to absorb time trends. The treatment group composes of the red markers indicating the first round of EU entrants, the green markers for the second round, and the blue markers for the third round. The control group consists of the black markers standing for permanent EU members, and the gray markers for permanent non-EU members. The figure shows the reading score in each survey wave between 2000 and 2015. The red, dashed, vertical line signals the 2004 entries. The green, dashed, vertical line indicates the 2007 entries. The blue, dashed, vertical line designates the 2013 entry. The first group of EU entrants contains the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, the Slovak Republic, and Slovenia; the second group includes Bulgaria and Romania; and the third entrants group is formed by Croatia. Permanent EU members are Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, the United Kingdom, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, and Sweden. Permanent non-EU members are Albania, Iceland, Montenegro, Norway, and Serbia.

Table 1. Main result – the effect of EU membership on student achievement.

Dep. var.	Reading score		Math score		Science score
EU member	26.086**	9.667**	21.619	7.648	25.825**	−1.314
	(12.165)	(3.814)	(14.045)	(4.692)	(12.034)	(4.359)
	[0.104]	[0.032]	[0.218]	[0.184]	[0.094]	[0.770]
Constant	464.663***	376.124***	471.549***	383.010***	471.372***	382.940***
	(12.029)	(2.785)	(13.805)	(3.332)	(11.611)	(3.182)
	[0.000]	[0.000]	[0.000]	[0.000]	[0.000]	[0.000]
Observations	1,073,652	1,073,652	1,021,595	1,021,595	1,021,522	1,021,522
R-squared	0.013	0.088	0.009	0.100	0.013	0.090
Fixed effects	–	x	–	x	–	x
Controls
Student	–	–	–	–	–	–
Family	–	–	–	–	–	–
School	–	–	–	–	–	–
Country	–	–	–	–	–	–

Note: Sample mean of reading score is 487 points, of math score is 491 points, and of science score is 494 points. When indicated by x, the model controls for time- and country-fixed effects. Standard errors are clustered at the country level reported in parenthesis (***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.1). 1,000 times wild bootstrapped p-values are in square brackets. Least squares regression weighted by final students’ sampling probability.

Table 2. The effect of EU membership on student characteristics.

Dep. var.	Female	Age	Migrant
EU member	0.002	0.035	−0.034*
	(0.007)	(0.057)	(0.020)
Constant	0.498***	15.676***	−0.002
	(0.002)	(0.020)	(0.007)
Observations	1,072,650	1,072,448	1,032,304
R-squared	0.000	0.057	0.035

Note: The model controls for time- and country-fixed effects. Standard errors are clustered at the country level reported in parenthesis (***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.1). Least squares regression weighted by final students’ sampling probability.

Table 3. The effect of EU membership on parental characteristics.

Panel A: Migration and Education
Dep. var.	Migrant	Education
		No education	Primary	Lower secondary	Upper secondary I	Upper secondary I	University
EU member	−0.035***	0.004	−0.004	−0.030**	−0.050***	−0.067**	−0.040**
	(0.007)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.011)	(0.016)	(0.030)	(0.019)
Constant	−0.021***	0.027***	0.973***	0.899***	0.707***	0.609***	0.236***
	(0.005)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.009)	(0.011)	(0.015)	(0.015)
Observations	1,032,304	1,038,580	1,038,580	1,038,580	1,038,580	1,038,580	1,038,580
R-squared	0.070	0.034	0.034	0.114	0.125	0.101	0.076
Note: The education categories refer to at least having obtained this level of schooling compared to all levels below. No education and university education compare to all other categories. The model controls for time- and country-fixed effects. Standard errors are clustered at country level (***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.1). Least squares regression weighted by final students’ sampling probability.
Panel B: Work Status
Dep. var.	Mother				Father
	Works full time	Works part time	Looks for work	Other	Works full time	Works part time	Looks for work	Other
EU member	−0.021	0.005	−0.013	0.028	0.037*	−0.002	−0.021**	0.030*
	(0.016)	(0.013)	(0.010)	(0.018)	(0.022)	(0.007)	(0.009)	(0.017)
Constant	0.282***	0.071***	0.159***	0.500***	0.601***	0.191***	0.105***	0.324***
	(0.005)	(0.005)	(0.004)	(0.022)	(0.007)	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.016)
Observations	1,049,909	1,049,909	1,049,909	1,043,542	1,032,847	1,032,847	1,032,847	1,035,379
R-squared	0.130	0.137	0.032	0.034	0.051	0.024	0.028	0.085
Note: All variables are dummies taking the value 0 or 1 at individual level and therefore represent the share of a country. The model controls for time- and country-fixed effects. Standard errors are clustered at country level (***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.1). Least squares regression weighted by final students’ sampling probability.
Panel C: Occupation
Dep. var.	Manager	Professionals	Technicians	Clerical	Services and sales	Skilled agriculture/ forestry/ fishing	Craft and trade	Plant and machine operators	Elementary
EU member	0.007	−0.027**	−0.017	0.015***	0.018**	0.006	0.003	−0.000	0.013**
	(0.018)	(0.011)	(0.013)	(0.005)	(0.007)	(0.004)	(0.008)	(0.007)	(0.005)
Constant	0.125***	0.160***	0.048***	0.036***	0.118***	0.070***	0.169***	0.070***	0.120***
	(0.008)	(0.007)	(0.004)	(0.003)	(0.005)	(0.002)	(0.004)	(0.002)	(0.003)
Observations	1,073,652	1,073,652	1,073,652	1,073,652	1,073,652	1,073,652	1,073,652	1,073,652	1,073,652
R-squared	0.017	0.023	0.012	0.008	0.008	0.014	0.023	0.007	0.013

Note: All variables are dummies taking the value 0 or 1 at individual level and therefore represent the share of a country. The model controls for time- and country-fixed effects. Standard errors are clustered at country level (***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.1). Least squares regression weighted by final students’ sampling probability.

Table 4. The effect of EU membership on family characteristics.

Panel A: Family wealth
Dep. var.	Consumer goods	Cultural goods	Books at home					Home educational resources
			0–10	11–100	101–200	201–500	≥500
EU member	0.180***	−0.191***	0.017	−0.017	−0.078***	−0.056***	−0.022***	−0.044
	(0.063)	(0.049)	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.022)	(0.016)	(0.008)	(0.034)
Constant	−1.727***	0.033	0.360***	0.640***	0.165***	0.080***	0.047***	0.248***
	(0.041)	(0.024)	(0.005)	(0.005)	(0.008)	(0.007)	(0.004)	(0.037)
Observations	1,062,602	1,055,592	1,050,897	1,050,897	1,050,897	1,050,897	1,050,897	1,063,940
R-squared	0.227	0.065	0.033	0.033	0.043	0.027	0.014	0.023
Note: The index consumer goods includes an own room, access to internet, number of phones, TVs, computers, cars, bathrooms, and DVD players. The index cultural goods includes literature books, poetry, and art work. Reference category for the number of books are 0–10 books. The index home educational resources contains a study desk, quiet study place, computer for school work, educational software, books for school work, technical reference books, and dictionary.
Panel B: Family structure
Dep. var.	Both parents	Single mother	Single father	Without parents
EU member	−0.058***	0.031**	0.014***	0.015**
	(0.018)	(0.014)	(0.003)	(0.006)
Constant	0.806***	0.068***	0.019***	0.040***
	(0.008)	(0.005)	(0.001)	(0.002)
Observations	1,064,038	1,025,676	1,043,859	1,058,528
R-squared	0.026	0.030	0.005	0.013

Note: All variables are dummies taking the value 0 or 1 at individual level and therefore represent the share of a country. The model controls for time- and country-fixed effects. Standard errors are clustered at country level (***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.1). Least squares regression weighted by final students’ sampling probability.

Table 5. The effect of EU membership on school characteristics.

Panel A: Location
Dep. var.	Village (less 3,000)	Town (3,000–15,000)	Large town (15,000–100,000)	City (100,000–1,000,000)	Large city (≥1,000,000)
EU member	0.038*	−0.039*	−0.066**	−0.007	0.000
	(0.019)	(0.019)	(0.024)	(0.012)	(0.000)
Constant	0.216***	0.783***	0.538***	0.017*	1.000
	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.010)	(0.008)	(0.000)
Observations	1,038,771	1,029,941	1,029,941	1,029,941	59,150
R-squared	0.090	0.089	0.077	0.064	–
Note: All variables are dummies taking the value 0 or 1 at individual level and therefore represent the share of a country. The model controls for the share of imputed school location observations and for time- and country-fixed effects. Standard errors are clustered at country level (***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.1). Least squares regression weighted by final students’ sampling probability.
Panel B: Resources
Dep. var.	Private	Number of students	Government budget	Shortage of math teachers	Certified teachers	Problem with absent teachers
						Not at all	A little	Some	A lot
EU member	0.010	−74.828**	−5.285	−0.054**	0.028	−0.002	0.010	0.012	0.010
	(0.013)	(31.154)	(3.667)	(0.024)	(0.059)	(0.074)	(0.025)	(0.014)	(0.013)
Constant	0.071***	584.156***	−6.119**	0.098***	0.390***	0.460***	0.102***	0.063***	0.071***
	(0.007)	(14.479)	(2.999)	(0.020)	(0.024)	(0.020)	(0.016)	(0.009)	(0.007)
Observations	1,033,531	1,014,384	1,017,502	1,026,860	1,029,536	1,029,536	1,029,536	1,029,536	1,033,531
R-squared	0.306	0.315	0.448	0.124	0.201	0.136	0.065	0.041	0.306

Note: All variables are dummies taking the value 0 or 1 at individual level and therefore represent the share of a country. The model controls for the share of imputed observations of private, number of students, and share of government budget. It also conditions on time- and country-fixed effects. Standard errors are clustered at country level (***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.1). Least squares regression weighted by final students’ sampling probability.

Table 6. The effect of EU membership on country characteristics.

Dep. var.	Autonomy	School-based test with external comparison	Student-based test with external comparison	Standardized monitoring	Internal testing	Internal teacher monitoring	Gov. expenditure on sec. education
EU member	−0.059	−0.094*	0.286*	−0.041	−0.053	−0.070**	−0.235
	(0.050)	(0.050)	(0.157)	(0.027)	(0.031)	(0.029)	(1.178)
Constant	0.515***	0.562***	−0.349**	0.772***	0.666***	0.755***	0.278
	(0.034)	(0.043)	(0.148)	(0.035)	(0.016)	(0.027)	(1.000)
Observations	1,073,652	1,059,186	994,129	1,059,186	1,059,186	1,059,186	782,274
R-squared	0.865	0.824	0.790	0.825	0.833	0.925	0.799

Note: Autonomy is the share of schools with academic-content autonomy. Tests also report the share of school in a country which employ standardized student tests for the different purposes. Autonomy and tests are both derived from the PISA principal questionnaire. The model controls for time- and country-fixed effects and additionally in the last column for the imputed share of secondary government expenditure. Standard errors are clustered at the country level.

Table 7. The effect of EU membership on student achievement conditional on the entire set of controls.

Dep. var.	Reading score
EU member	14.298**	15.736***
	(5.532)	(3.869)
Constant	487.863***	148.992***
	(5.478)	(28.709)
Observations	527,198	527,198
R-squared	0.065	0.298
Controls
Student	–	X
Family	–	X
School	–	X
Country	–	X

Note: The mean of the dependent variable, reading score, in the full sample without controls is 487 points. Controls are on student level age, gender, and migrant status; on parental level education, work, status, type of occupation; on family level an index of consumer goods, an index of cultural goods, the number of book at home, an index of home educational resources, and family structure; on school level city size, teacher absence, private or public operation, the number of students, and the of government budget; on country level academic-content autonomy, the share of schools in a country which employ standardized student tests for different purposes, and government expenditure per secondary student is a share of GDP per capita. Coefficients for those controls are reported in Appendix Table 3. The model controls for the imputed share of secondary government expenditure. The model also conditions on time- and country-fixed effects. Standard errors are clustered at country level (***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.1). Least squares regression weighted by final students’ sampling probability.

Table 8. Placebo test against endogeneity with leading treatment.

Dep. var.	Reading score
EU member	0.204	0.298	−0.014
	(0.262)	(0.301)	(0.387)
Constant	374.574***	499.398***	214.126***
	(2.592)	(2.864)	(24.756)
Observations	1,073,620	505,234	505,234
R-squared	0.087	0.064	0.296
Sample	full	controls	controls
Controls	–	–	x

Note: The mean of the dependent variable, reading score, in the full sample without controls is 487 points. Each field represents a separate regression. The dependent variable leads or lags by one period relative to the independent variable. The full sample applies to all available observations. The controls sample draws from the observations where there are no missing values in the controls. The model controls for time- and country-fixed effects. Standard errors are clustered at country level (***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.1). Least squares regression weighted by final students’ sampling probability.

Table 9. Robustness test – student sample composition.

Panel A: Gender
Dep. var.	Reading Score
Student group	girls			Boys
EU member	11.32***	15.80***	18.22***	8.249**	12.82**	12.30***
	(3.752)	(4.911)	(2.951)	(4.040)	(6.172)	(4.165)
Constant	396.1***	502.4***	210.3***	357.4***	472.0***	214.8***
	(2.607)	(4.561)	(37.46)	(3.140)	(6.115)	(29.38)
Observations	533,464	254,795	254,795	8.249**	12.82**	12.30***
R-squared	0.094	0.072	0.277	(4.040)	(6.172)	(4.165)
Sample	Full	controls	controls	full	controls	controls
Controls	–	–	x	–	–	x
Note: The sample was split by student gender. The full sample applies to all available observations. The controls sample draws from the observations where there are no missing values in the controls. Standard errors are clustered at country level (***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.1). Least squares regression weighted by final students’ sampling probability.
Panel B: Migration background – native-born students only
Dep. var.	Reading score
EU member	10.050**	14.652**	15.323***
	(3.792)	(5.776)	(3.292)
Constant	376.885***	495.166***	191.955***
	(2.596)	(5.550)	(34.354)
Observations	886,476	425,257	425,257
R-squared	0.109	0.080	0.298
Sample	full	controls	controls
Controls	–	–	x

Note: The sample was reduced to native students born in their testing countries, i.e. first- and second-generation migrants were excluded. The full sample applies to all available observations. The controls sample draws from the observations where there are no missing values in the controls. Standard errors are clustered at country level (***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.1). Least squares regression weighted by final students’ sampling probability.

Table 10. Specification test on country-specific time trends.

Dep. var.	Reading score	Math score	Science score
EU member	5.205**	10.114*	5.742*
	(2.220)	(5.680)	(2.911)
Constant	−1,676.036***	−7,299.901***	−3,128.500***
	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.002)
Observations	1,021,595	1,073,652	1,021,522
R-squared	0.105	0.091	0.092

Note: Sample mean of reading score is 487 points, of math score is 491 points, and of science score is 494 points. The model controls for country-specific time trends. Standard errors are clustered at the country level reported in parenthesis (***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.1). Least squares regression weighted by final students’ sampling probability.