University-to-work transitions in Germany – do graduate job seekers benefit from migration and work experience?

Figures & data

Figure 1. Types of graduate migration. Source: Faggian, McCann, and Sheppard (2007).

Figure 2. Survival function (Kaplan-Meier estimates) for graduates. Source: University panel linked to the IEB of IAB, own calculations.

Table 1. Regression results – determinants of transition time into first regular full-time and part-time jobs.

	(1)		(2)		(3)
	coef	se	coef	se	coef	se
Individual characteristics
Female	−0.102***	0.026	−0.108***	0.026	−0.101***	0.028
Age	−0.049	0.091	−0.002	0.093	0.110	0.093
Age²	0.000	0.002	−0.001	0.002	−0.002	0.002
Foreigner	−0.157***	0.060	−0.154**	0.061	−0.194***	0.063
Spatial mobility
Spatial mobility before studies	0.045**	0.022	0.046**	0.023	0.043*	0.023
Spatial mobility after studies	−0.112***	0.027	−0.114***	0.028	−0.112***	0.031
Higher education
University (Ref.: university of applied sciences)	−0.242***	0.052	−0.244***	0.055	−0.293***	0.071
Examination grade (Ref.: sufficient)
Satisfactory	0.080	0.049	0.080	0.050	0.093*	0.052
Good	0.027	0.042	0.028	0.043	0.039	0.044
Excellent/very good	−0.060	0.047	−0.059	0.047	−0.054	0.048
Other degrees (Ref: Diploma/Master)	−0.360***	0.050	−0.357***	0.051	−0.366***	0.058
Study length	−0.016***	0.004	−0.016***	0.004	−0.022***	0.005
Work experience
Vocational training	0.233***	0.033	0.212***	0.033
Experience (in 100 days)
before higher education
total	0.006*	0.003
marginal empl.			−0.001	0.004	−0.004	0.005
regular empl.			0.015***	0.005	0.020***	0.005
during higher education
total	−0.026***	0.003
marginal empl.			−0.030***	0.004	−0.030***	0.004
regular empl.			−0.002	0.007	0.001	0.008
Previous employer	0.269***	0.041	0.256***	0.033	0.271***	0.048
Ln(p)	0.718***	0.054	0.723***	0.062	0.735***	0.091
Ln(θ)	−0.920**	0.468	−0.869	0.529	−0.753	0.753
Implied p	2.050	0.110	2.061	0.128	2.085	0.190
θ	0.399	0.187	0.419	0.222	0.471	0.355
Log Likelihood	−8,997.83		−8,989.18		−9,007.76
Number of students	19,860		19,860		19,860
Observations	22,959		22,959		22,959

Notes: * significance at the 0.1 level, ** significance at the 0.05 level, *** significance at the 0.01 level; robust standard errors in parentheses. All models include time effects and fixed effects for field of study. Our sample consists of 19,860 young workers. Our units of observation are individual student-year observations (22.959). Since a relatively large number of students enter the labor market quickly, the number of student-year observations is not significantly higher than the number of graduates.

p is the shape parameter from a Weibull distribution. A value larger than one implies a positive duration dependence. θ is the estimated frailty parameter.

marginal empl.: marginal employment.

regular empl.: regular (part-time or full-time) employment.

Table 2. Regression results – mobility types and transition time into first regular full-time and part-time jobs.

	(1)		(2)		(3)
	coef	se	coef	Se	coef	se
Mobility types (Ref: Immobile)
Staying migrants	0.050	0.040	0.053	0.041	0.046	0.046
Migrants	−0.109***	0.036	−0.110***	0.037	−0.130***	0.038
Returning migrants	−0.043	0.042	−0.042	0.042	−0.048	0.046
Repeat migrants	−0.074**	0.033	−0.074**	0.034	−0.092***	0.035

Notes: ** significance at the 0.05 level, *** significance at the 0.01 level; robust standard errors in parentheses. All models include time effects, individual characteristics and study-related variables.

Table 3. Regression results – sector-specific and non-specific work experience and transition time into first regular full-time and part-time jobs.

	(1) 3-digit		(2) 2-digit		(3) 1-digit
	coef	se	coef	se	coef	se
Work experience
Sector-specific vocational training	0.334***	0.061	0.299***	0.056	0.304***	0.045
Non-specific vocational training	0.181***	0.034	0.187***	0.035	0.150***	0.038
Sector-specific experience (in 100 days)
before higher education
marginal empl.	0.009	0.016	−0.002	0.012	−0.001	0.010
regular empl.	0.023**	0.011	0.024***	0.009	0.012*	0.007
during higher education
marginal empl.	−0.049***	0.008	−0.046***	0.007	−0.037***	0.005
regular empl.	−0.002	0.016	0.000	0.015	0.004	0.011
Non-specific experience (in 100 days)
before higher education
marginal empl.	−0.002	0.005	−0.001	0.005	−0.001	0.005
regular empl.	0.013**	0.005	0.012**	0.006	0.016**	0.007
during higher education
marginal empl.	−0.026***	0.003	−0.026***	0.003	−0.026***	0.004
regular empl.	−0.002	0.008	−0.003	0.009	−0.007	0.010

Notes: * significance at the 0.1 level, ** significance at the 0.05 level, *** significance at the 0.01 level; robust standard errors in parentheses. All models include time effects, individual characteristics, study-related variables and mobility types.

Table 4. Regression results – work experience during 3-, 6- and 12-month periods before graduation and transition time into first regular full-time and part-time jobs.

	(1) 3-month period before graduation				(2) 6-month period before graduation				(3) 12-month period before graduation
	coef	se	coef	se	coef	se	coef	se	coef	se	coef	se
Experience (in 100 days)
before higher education
marginal empl.	−0.000	0.004	−0.000	0.004	−0.001	0.004	−0.001	0.004	−0.001	0.005	−0.001	0.005
regular empl.	0.013***	0.005	0.013***	0.005	0.013***	0.005	0.014***	0.005	0.014***	0.005	0.014**	0.006
x months before graduation
total	−1.150***	0.072			−0.467***	0.040			−0.211***	0.023
marginal empl.			−1.269***	0.079			−0.520***	0.048			−0.237***	0.038
regular empl.			−0.290**	0.133			−0.091	0.063			−0.050	0.032
during higher education (without last x months)
marginal empl.	−0.000	0.003	0.002	0.003	−0.001	0.003	0.001	0.003	0.001	0.003	0.004	0.004
regular empl.	0.016*	0.008	0.004	0.008	0.017*	0.009	0.004	0.008	0.019**	0.009	0.006	0.009

Notes: * significance at the 0.1 level, ** significance at the 0.05 level, *** significance at the 0.01 level; robust standard errors in parentheses. All models include time effects, individual characteristics, study-related variables and mobility types.

Figure 3. Effect of field of study on time to first job. Source: university panel linked to the IEB of IAB, own calculations.

Figure 4. Effects of graduation year on the likelihood of finding a job. Source: university panel linked to the IEB of IAB, own calculations.

Table A1. Description of explanatory variables.

	Personal characteristics
	Female	1 if female, 0 if  at time of graduation
	Age²	Age (at time of graduation) squared divided by 100
	Foreigner	1 if foreign graduate, 0 if German graduate
	Spatial mobility before studies	1 if not studying in home region, 0 otherwise
	Spatial mobility after studies	1 if not working in study region, 0 otherwise
	Mobility types	Immobile Staying migrants Migrants Repeat migrants Return migrants
	Higher education
	Type of university	1 if studying at university, 0 if studying at university of applied sciences
	Examination grade	Sufficient Satisfactory Good Excellent/very good
	Study length	Number of semesters
	Type of degree	1 if other degrees (e.g. state examination), 0 if master/diploma
	Field of study	Agricultural sciences Humanities Geography/meteorology Mathematics/computer science Natural sciences/engineering Psychology Social sciences Economics & business administration Other subjects
	Work experience
	Vocational training	1 if graduate completed a vocational training before studying, 0 otherwise
	Experience (in 100 days)	Marginalª/regular employment work experience before studies Marginalª/regular employment work experience during studies
	Previous employer	1 employer-specific work experience before/during studies, 0 otherwise

Table A2. Summary statistics – mobility and control variables.

	Obs.	Mean	Std.	Min.	Max.
Personal characteristics
Female	19,860	0.44	0.50	0	1
Age at graduation	19,860	27.37	2.26	22	35
Age² at graduation	19,860	753.98	127.98	484	1,225
Foreigner	19,860	0.04	0.19	0	1
Mobility before studies	19,860	0.56	0.50	0	1
Mobility after studies	19,860	0.66	0.47	0	1
Mobility type
Immobile	19,860	0.22	0.42	0	1
Staying migrant	19,860	0.12	0.32	0	1
Migrants	19,860	0.22	0.41	0	1
Return Migrants	19,860	0.11	0.31	0	1
Repeat Migrants	19,860	0.33	0.47	0	1
Higher education
Type of university: University	19,860	0.84	0.36	0	1
Exam grade
Excellent/very good	19,860	0.25	0.43	0	1
Good	19,860	0.56	0.50	0	1
Satisfactory	19,860	0.12	0.33	0	1
Sufficient	19,860	0.06	0.25	0	1
Study length	19,860	11.43	3.29	0	20
Field of Study
Agricultural sciences	19,860	0.04	0.18	0	1
Humanities	19,860	0.16	0.37	0	1
Geography/Meteorology	19,860	0.04	0.19	0	1
Mathematics/Computer science	19,860	0.09	0.29	0	1
Pharmacy	19,860	0.03	0.17	0	1
Natural sciences	19,860	0.13	0.33	0	1
Psychology	19,860	0.06	0.24	0	1
Social sciences	19,860	0.05	0.22	0	1
Business administration & Economics	19,860	0.40	0.49	0	1
Others	19,860	0.00	0.07	0	1
Type of degree
Diploma/Master degree	19,860	0.85	0.35	0	1
Other degrees	19,860	0.15	0.35	0	1

Source: university panel linked to the IEB of IAB, own calculations.

Table A3. Summary statistics – work experience.

	Obs.	Mean	Std.	Min.	Max.
Vocational training
total	19,860	0.20	0.40	0	1
sector-specific (3-digit)	19,860	0.03	0.18	0	1
non-specific (3-digit)	19,860	0.16	0.37	0	1
sector-specific (2-digit)	19,860	0.04	0.19	0	1
non-specific (2-digit)	19,860	0.16	0.36	0	1
sector-specific (1-digit)	19,860	0.07	0.26	0	1
non-specific (1-digit)	19,860	0.13	0.33	0	1
Work experience (in 100 days)
Total experience: before studies	19,860	1.96	4.01	0	44.28
ME experience: before studies	19,860	1.17	3.10	0	34.61
RE experience: before studies	19,860	0.78	2.58	0	44.28
Total experience: during studies	19,860	4.83	5.84	0	34.26
ME experience: during studies	19,860	4.22	5.58	0	33.62
RE experience: during studies	19,860	0.60	1.71	0	25.19
ME experience: before studies, sector-specific (3-digit)	19,860	0.08	0.88	0	34.61
RE experience: before studies, sector-specific (3-digit)	19,860	0.11	0.96	0	44.28
ME experience: during studies, sector-specific (3-digit)	19,860	0.62	2.47	0	31.73
RE experience: during studies, sector-specific (3-digit)	19,860	0.13	0.92	0	25.19
ME experience: before studies, non-specific (3-digit)	19,860	1.09	2.96	0	33.33
RE experience: before studies, non-specific (3-digit)	19,860	0.68	2.39	0	40.96
ME experience: during studies, non-specific (3-digit)	19,860	3.60	5.16	0	33.62
RE experience: during studies, non-specific (3-digit)	19,860	0.47	1.44	0	22.73
ME experience: before studies, sector-specific (2-digit)	19,860	0.12	1.03	0	34.61
RE experience: before studies, sector-specific (2-digit)	19,860	0.13	1.10	0	44.28
ME experience: during studies, sector-specific (2-digit)	19,860	0.76	2.72	0	31.73
RE experience: during studies, sector-specific (2-digit)	19,860	0.15	0.96	0	25.19
ME experience: before studies, non-specific (2-digit)	19,860	1.06	2.90	0	33.33
RE experience: before studies, non-specific (2-digit)	19,860	0.65	2.32	0	40.96
ME experience: during studies, non-specific (2-digit)	19,860	3.46	5.07	0	33.62
RE experience: during studies, non-specific (2-digit)	19,860	0.46	1.42	0	22.73
ME experience: before studies, sector-specific (1-digit)	19,860	0.22	1.34	0	34.61
RE experience: before studies, sector-specific (1-digit)	19,860	0.26	1.53	0	44.28
ME experience: during studies, sector-specific (1-digit)	19,860	1.28	3.32	0	31.97
RE experience: during studies, sector-specific (1-digit)	19,860	0.24	1.16	0	25.19
ME experience: before studies, non-specific (1-digit)	19,860	0.95	2.75	0	33.33
RE experience: before studies, non-specific (1-digit)	19,860	0.52	2.06	0	40.96
ME experience: during studies, non-specific (1-digit)	19,860	2.94	4.74	0	33.29
RE experience: during studies, non-specific (1-digit)	19,860	0.37	1.26	0	22.73
ME experience: during studies, without last 3 months	19,860	4.01	5.38	0	32.72
RE experience: during studies, without last 3 months	19,860	0.59	1.68	0	24.60
Total experience: 3-month period before graduation	19,860	0.23	0.37	0	0.90
ME experience: 3-month period before graduation	19,860	0.21	0.36	0	0.90
RE experience: 3-month period before graduation	19,860	0.02	0.10	0	0.90
ME experience: during studies, without last 6 months	19,860	3.78	5.18	0	31.97
RE experience: during studies, without last 6 months	19,860	0.57	1.63	0	24.60
Total experience: 6-month period before graduation	19,860	0.49	0.72	0	1.80
ME experience: 6-month period before graduation	19,860	0.45	0.70	0	1.80
RE experience: 6-month period before graduation	19,860	0.04	0.21	0	1.80
ME experience: during studies, without last 12 months	19,860	3.29	4.76	0	30.92
RE experience: during studies, without last 12 months	19,860	0.51	1.52	0	24.60
Total experience: 12-month period before graduation	19,860	1.02	1.36	0	3.60
ME experience: 12-month period before graduation	19,860	0.93	1.34	0	3.60
RE experience: 12-month period before graduation	19,860	0.09	0.42	0	3.59
Previous employer	19,860	0.14	0.35	0	1

Notes: ME: marginal employment, RE: regular (part-time or full-time) employment.

Source: university panel linked to the IEB of IAB, own calculations.

Faggian, A., P. McCann, and S. Sheppard. 2007. “Some Evidence that Women are More Mobile Than Men: Gender Differences in U.K. Graduate Migration Behavior.” Journal of Regional Science 47 (3): 517–539. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9787.2007.00518.x.

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