Is prospective memory related to depression and anxiety? A hierarchical MPT modelling approach

Figures & data

Figure 1. The MPT model of event-based PM proposed by Smith and Bayen (2004). C₁ = probability of detecting a colour match; C₂ = probability of detecting that a colour does not match; P = prospective component of PM. M₁ = probability of recognising a PM target; M₂ = probability of recognising that a word is not a PM target; g = probability of guessing that a word is a PM target; c = probability of guessing that a colour matches. Adapted from “A multinomial model of event-based prospective memory” by R. E. Smith and U. J. Bayen, 2004, Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 30, 756–777. Copyright 2004 by the American Psychological Association.

TABLE 1 Parameters of the hierarchical beta distributions

	Mean [95% BCI]	SD [95% BCI]	α	β
C1	.71 [.67–.74]	.20 [.18–.23]	2.82	1.17
C2	.89 [.88–.91]	.07 [.06–.08]	16.55	1.96
P	.76 [.73–.79]	.18 [.16–.20]	3.58	1.10
M	.89 [.86–.91]	.10 [.08–.12]	8.24	1.10

C₁ = probability of detecting a colour match; C₂ = probability of detecting a colour nonmatch; P = prospective component of PM; M = retrospective component of PM; BCI = Bayesian confidence interval; α and β are the parameters that describe the beta distribution.

TABLE 2 Scores on the BDI-II, HADS-D and STAI

				Range
Test	N	Mean	SD	Actual	Potential
BDI-II	128	9.64	7.07	0–33	0–63
STAI state	129	38.82	9.54	21–69	20–80
STAI trait	129	41.52	10.45	22–72	20–80
HADS-D anxiety	129	6.42	3.55	0–17	0–21
HADS-D depression	129	3.43	2.76	0–13	0–21

TABLE 3 Correlations between parameters M and P of the beta-MPT model, PM performance and depression and anxiety scores

Test	N		C1	C2	P	M	PM hits
BDI-II	128	r	−.06	.04	−.08	.10	−.03
		p	.23	.32	.183	.143	.358
HADS-D depression	129	r	−.07	.04	−.04	.03	−.03
		p	.23	.32	.336	.37	.367
HADS-D anxiety	129	r	−.15*	−.05	−.01	−.01	−.01
		p	.05	.27	.469	.48	.458
STAI state	129	r	−.09	−.06	−.18*	−.07	−.19*
		p	.17	.25	.024	.213	.018
STAI trait	129	r	−.03	−.08	−.08	.05	−.06
		p	.36	.18	.177	.306	.265

* p < .05.

C₁ = probability of detecting a colour-match; C₂ = probability of detecting a colour-nonmatch; P = prospective component of PM; M = retrospective component of PM.

Smith, R. E., & Bayen, U. J. (2004). A multinomial model of event-based prospective memory. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 30, 756–777.

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