PIRA Lessons Learned: A Model of Terrorist Leadership Succession

Abstract

In the global war against terrorism key questions need to be asked concerning how Al Qaeda is reorganizing and who will be leading it. In the absence of, at the very least adequate open source data, how can we answer these vital questions and predict the next evolution of this deadly menace? One possible solution is to study the emergence and evolution of leadership within another terrorist organization. Based on an analysis of the Provisional Irish Republican Army, it is assessed that there have been at least two and possibly three distinct generations of leadership in that group. It is important to note, however, that although these three generations have emerged sequentially, they may well all be in positions of power at the same time. These generations are designated as; early or founding leaders; follow-on and continuity leaders; and embryonic leaders. Such analysis will not tell us whom the new and emerging leaders of Al Qaeda actually are but it might help us to frame the right questions to ask our intelligence collectors.