‘It's the Economy, Comrade!’ Parties and Voters in the 2007 Russian Duma Election

Figures & data

Figure 1. Source: Adapted from www.levada.ru, last accessed 8 April 2008. Figures show the distribution of voting preferences among those who said they intended to vote, in rounded percentages (the November figures are for 23–27 November, beyond which survey forecasts could not be reported), and the vote itself on 2 December. CPRF = Communist Party of the Russian Federation; LDPR = Liberal-Democratic Party of Russia; URF = Union of Right Forces.

FIGURE 1. Party Preferences among Intending Voters, January–November 2007

TABLE 1 
Russian Duma Elections, 1993–2007

Date	PL seats ^a	SMC seats	% PL threshold	PL contenders	PL winners	Turnout (%) ^b
						‘Voted’	‘Took part’
12 Dec 1993	225	225	5	13	8	n.d.	54.81^c
17 Dec 1995	225	225	5	43	4	64.38	64.73
19 Dec 1999	225	225	5	26	6	61.69	61.85
7 Dec 2003	225	225	5	23	3	55.67	55.75
2 Dec 2007	450	[none]	7	11	4	63.71	[63.78]
Notes: ^aAlthough conventionally described as ‘parties’, successive election laws in fact defined those eligible to nominate national lists of candidates as ‘electoral associations’ (including but not limited to parties) and ‘electoral blocs’ (1993), ‘associations’ and ‘blocs’ but without any explicit reference to parties (1995), ‘electoral associations’ including but not limited to parties (1999), and ‘electoral blocs’ as well as ‘political parties’ (2003). The election law that applied in 2007 was the first that gave the exclusive right to nominate a national list of candidates to ‘parties’ and was accordingly the first strictly defined ‘party-list’ election.
^bTurnout shows respectively those who ‘took part in the voting’ as a percentage of the registered electorate, and the percentage who ‘took part in the election’ by receiving ballot papers (which was the formal criterion for establishing the validity of an election until the law was amended in April 2007 and the turnout requirement was removed; thereafter official returns reported only the number who had actually cast ballots). In both cases, until 2007, slightly different numbers took part in the single-member constituency and party-list elections (in 2003, for instance, 55.3% of the registered electorate cast ballots in the single-member constituencies, but 55.7% in the party-list contest); the totals reported are for the party-list contest in every case. In 2007 voting was only by party list so there was no divergence.
^cSee Vybory (1996, p. 52).
PL = party list; SMC = single-member constituency.
Source: Official communiqués of the Central Electoral Commission, including subsequent revisions.

TABLE 2 
The Duma Election Result, 2 December 2007

	Share of vote (%)	Change 2003–2007	Number of seats	Change 2003–2007
United Russia	64.30	(+26.74)	315	(+92)
Communist Party of the  Russian Federation	11.57	(−1.04)	57	(+5)
Liberal-Democratic  Party of Russia	8.14	(−3.31)	40	(+4)
Just Russia: Rodina/ Pensioners/Life	7.74	–	38
[7% threshold]
Agrarian Party of Russia	2.30
Yabloko	1.59	(−2.71)		(−4)
Civic Force	1.05
Union of Right Forces	0.96	(−3.01)		(−3)
Patriots of Russia	0.89
Party of Social Justice	0.22
Democratic Party  of Russia	0.13
Invalid votes	1.09	(−0.47)
Total	100		450
Notes: The registered electorate was 109,145,517, of whom 69,537,065 cast a valid or invalid ballot (63.71%). The share of the vote in 2007 is compared with the 2003 party-list (but not single-member constituency) vote, and the number of seats with the seats won in both the party-list and single-member constituency contests in the earlier election.
Sources: Adapted from the Central Electoral Commission communiqué published in Vestnik Tsentral'noi izbiratel'noi komissii Rossiiskoi Federatsii, 19, 222, 2007, pp. 5–22, and the corrected results of the 2003 election that appeared in Vestnik Tsentral'noi izbiratel'noi komissii Rossiiskoi Federatsii, 8, 2005, pp. 215–19.

TABLE 3 
The Turnover of the Duma Vote, 2003–2007

	2003 Vote
	United Russia	CPRF	Lib Dem	Rodina	Other party	Against all	Non-voter
2007 Vote
United Russia	89	14	14	30	37	40	33
CPRF	<1	64	4	7	9	5	3
Lib Dem	1	3	67	2	2	10	4
Just Russia	3	3	1	37	7	10	3
Other party	1	2	1	17	37	2	2
Non-voter	5	14	13	8	8	33	55
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
(N)	(511)	(202)	(94)	(60)	(98)	(40)	(433)
Notes: Figures are for all respondents; those too young to vote in 2003 are included under non-voters. The questions were: ‘Tell me, please, for which party you voted in the elections to the State Duma’ (showing a card); similarly for ‘the elections to the State Duma in December 2003’.
Source: authors' post-election survey (N = 2,000), fielded between 30 January and 27 February 2008.

Figure 2. Figures show the percentage saying the economy is ‘very good’ or good’ minus the percentage saying ‘bad’ or ‘very bad’.

Sources: The figures for January 1995–January 2007 are derived from Vestnik obshchestvennogo mneniya, 1, 87, January–February 2007, and for January–November 2007 from Vestnik obshchestvennogo mneniya, 6, 92, November–December 2007.

FIGURE 2. Trends in Perceptions of Economic Performance

TABLE 4 
The Economy and the Vote

			2007 Vote
	2003	2007	United Russia	CPRF	Lib Dem	Just Russia
Country economy past 12 months
Better	40	47	60	23	36	37
Same	44	34	30	37	41	43
Worse	16	19	10	40	23	20
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100
(N)	(1,921)	(1,335)	(898)	(161)	(104)	(84)
Satisfaction with things in country
Satisfied	21	34	45	13	19	21
Neither	33	32	34	24	27	27
Unsatisfied	46	34	21	63	44	52
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100
(N)	(1,926)	(1,335)	(898)	(161)	(104)	(84)
Family economy past 12 months
Better	24	31	39	12	22	25
Same	52	42	42	40	43	44
Worse	24	27	19	48	35	41
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100
(N)	(1,985)	(1,389)	(939)	(167)	(106)	(87)
Notes: Question wordings were: ‘What do you think of the state of the economy in Russia today? Would you say that the condition of the economy is very good, good, neither good nor bad, bad or very bad?’; ‘Would you say that the state of the economy in Russia in the past 12 months has improved, stayed the same or deteriorated?’; ‘Tell me please, in the last 12 months has the material position of your family worsened, stayed the same or improved?’
Source: As Table 3.

Figure 3. Annual figures from January each year. Source: Adapted from http://www.russiavotes.org/president/putin_performance_trends.php, accessed 19 April 2008.

FIGURE 3. Evaluations of Putin's Performance as President

TABLE 5 
The‘Putin Effect’and the Vote

			2007 Vote
	2003	2007	United Russia	CPRF	Lib Dem	Just Russia
Strong leader better than laws
Agree	40	37	40	50	43	38
Neither	33	35	35	22	31	35
Disagree	27	28	25	18	26	27
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100
(N)	(1,857)	(1,882)	(895)	(158)	(102)	(86)
View of Putin
Approve	90	86	96	63	69	87
Disapprove	10	14	4	37	31	13
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100
(N)	(1,953)	(1,948)	(932)	(161)	(106)	(87)
Notes: Question wordings were: ‘Tell me please, to what extent do you agree with the view that a strong, powerful leader can do more for our country than any laws? [Completely disagree, somewhat disagree, neither agree nor disagree, somewhat agree, entirely agree]’; ‘Tell me please, on the whole do you approve or disapprove of the activity of V. V. Putin as President of Russia? [Completely approve, partially approve, partially disapprove, complete disapprove]’.
Source: As Table 3.

TABLE 6 
Political System Preferences and the Vote

			2007 Vote
	2003	2007	United Russia	CPRF	Lib Dem	Just Russia
Best political system
Soviet system	35	20	13	47	26	20
Soviet, more democracy	7	31	28	44	33	44
Political system today	40	36	48	7	18	17
Democracy as in West	18	13	11	2	23	19
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100
(N)	(1,577)	(1,711)	(932)	(161)	(106)	(87)
Democracy better than alternatives
Agree	71	76	82	50	33	81
Disagree	29	24	18	50	67	19
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100
(N)	(1,664)	(1,681)	(819)	(134)	(95)	(79)
Notes: Question wordings were: ‘Which of the following political systems would be the most appropriate for Russia? The Soviet system that we had in our country before perestroika; the Soviet system but in a different, more democratic form; the political system that presently exists; democracy of the Western kind’; ‘Tell me please, do you agree or disagree with the following statement: “Democracy may have its faults, but it is better than any other form of government”. Do you agree completely, agree, disagree or completely disagree with this statement?’ The estimates for the latter question in 2003 come from a 2005 survey.
Source: as Table 3.

TABLE 7 
Predicting the 2007 Party Vote (MNL Estimates)

	(Parameter estimates and standard errors)
	United vs CPRF	United vs Lib Dem	United vs Fair	CPRF vs Lib Dem	CPRF vs Fair	Lib Dem vs Fair
Economic performance
Economy better  past 12 months	0.36* (0.17)	0.05 (0.18)	0.41* (0.19)	−0.31 (0.21)	0.06 (0.22)	0.36 (0.23)
Family economy better  past 12 months	0.21 (0.16)	0.11 (0.17)	0.14 (0.19)	−0.09 (0.20)	−0.07 (0.22)	0.02 (0.23)
Satisfied with things  in country	0.42** (0.13)	0.56** (0.14)	0.50* (0.16)	0.14 (0.17)	0.08 (0.19)	−0.06 (0.19)
The Putin effect
Strong leader  better than laws	−0.06 (0.10)	−0.04 (0.10)	−0.04 (0.11)	0.02 (0.12)	0.02 (0.13)	0.01 (0.14)
Approve of Putin	1.12** (0.15)	1.03** (0.16)	0.63* (0.18)	−0.09 (0.18)	−0.48** (0.20)	−0.40** (0.21)
Political system
Democracy better  than Soviet	0.93** (0.16)	0.04 (0.15)	0.07 (0.16)	−0.88** (0.20)	−0.85** (0.21)	0.03 (0.20)
Democracy better  than others	−0.07 (0.17)	−1.03 (0.18)	−0.22 (0.21)	0.04 (0.20)	−0.15 (0.23)	−0.19 (0.25)
Constant	−6.31	−3.34	−2.49	2.97	3.82	0.85
Nagelkerke R-Sq	0.35
(N)	(1,306)
Notes: *Statistically significant at p < 0.01, two-tailed. Multinominal logistic regression showing parameter estimates and standard errors predicting six sets of contrasts between party voters.
Source: As Table 3.

Vybory . 1996 . Vybory deputatov Gosudarstvennoi Dumy. 1995. Elektoral'naya statistika , Moscow : Ves' mir .

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