A review of the IPCC Fifth Assessment and implications for tourism sector climate resilience and decarbonization

Abstract

The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2013–2014 was the most comprehensive analysis of anthropogenic climate change, its impacts, and potential responses. It concluded that climate change is “unequivocal” and human activities are the dominant cause. Avoidance of “dangerous” climate change will require sustained substantial reductions of emissions by mid-century and that net emissions decrease to zero before 2100. This paper describes, reviews and explains the place of tourism in AR5 and AR5's relevance for tourism's future, including impacts, adaptation, vulnerabilities, and mitigation. Tourism's position in AR5 has strengthened, particularly with respect to the recognition of transboundary impacts, the sector's contribution to climate change and its mitigation requirements. Major regional knowledge gaps persist. A lack of understanding of the integrated impacts of climate change and the effectiveness of adaptation strategies potentially hinders the development of resilient tourism operations and destinations. Uncertainties regarding tourist response to climate change impacts and mitigation policy impede predictions of tourism demand. The implications of different decarbonization pathways for the future of international tourism represent a key knowledge gap. The limited response of key tourism organizations to AR5 contributes to the risks climate change poses to the sector.

回顾政府间气候变化专门委员会第五次评估以及旅游部门的气候适应力和脱碳的影响

回顾政府间气候变化专门委员会第五次评估以及旅游部门的气候适应力和脱碳的影响摘要：政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）在2013 - 14年的第五次评估报告（AR5）是人为气候变化、其影响和潜在反应的最全面分析。它的结论是，气候变化是``明确"的，人类活动是最主要的原因。避免``危险的"气候变化要求本世纪中叶持续大幅度削减排放量和在2100年前净排放量降低到零。本文介绍、评论和解释了旅游业在AR5的位置和旅游业未来的AR5相关性，包括影响、适应、脆弱性和缓解。旅游业在AR5的地位加强，特别是关于承认跨界影响、部门对气候变化的贡献及其缓解需求。但主要区域知识差距仍然存在。缺乏气候变化和战略适应有效性的综合影响的认识可能会阻碍弹性旅游经营和旅游景点的发展。关于游客应对气候变化的影响的不确定性和政策减缓阻碍了旅游需求的预测。

Keywords:

• climate change
• mitigation
• adaptation
• emissions
• impacts
• development

关键词:

• 气候变化
• 减缓
• 适应
• 排放
• 影响
• 发展

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Daniel Scott

Daniel Scott is a university research chair in Global Change and Tourism at the University of Waterloo in Canada and a Research Fellow at the Western Norway Research Institute. He has worked on the human dimensions of climate change for over 15 years and been a contributing author and expert reviewer for the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Third, Fourth and Fifth Assessment Reports.

C. Michael Hall

C. Michael Hall is a professor at the University of Canterbury, New Zealand and docent, University of Oulu, Finland. He also holds positions at Linneaus University, Sweden; the University of Eastern Finland; the University of Johannesburg, South Africa; and the University of Mauritius.

Stefan Gössling

Stefan Gössling is a professor at the School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University, Sweden and the research co-ordinator at the Western Norway Research Institute's Research Centre for Sustainable Tourism. He has worked on many aspects of sustainable tourism, including emissions of greenhouse gases and tourism.