A dynamic vulnerability approach for tourism destinations

Figures & data

Table 1. Dynamic vulnerability approach insights- matrix of the five principles of dynamic assessments with methods.

		Methods
		Desktop research	Interviews	Simulation development	Simulation sessions	Computational modelling
Principles	Human Agency	- Inventorise potential actors and actions	- Note stated perceptions	- Integrate actions with environmental context	- Apply perceptions in a dynamic group setting - State perceptions of actions of different participants - Observe actions and responses	- Apply and test of behaviour rules in scenarios
	Heterogeneity	- Identify key potential human and environmental differences	- Identify key stated and perceived differences	- Explore different roles and scenarios - Include human, environmental, spatial and temporal differences	- Experience changing heterogeneities - Explore participants’ responses - Test the implications of different heterogeneities	- Apply human and environmental heterogeneities to virtual version of coastal setting - Experiment with different types and levels of heterogeneities
	Feedbacks	- Identify existing observations	- Note perceived feedbacks	- Check implications of individual feedbacks on wider system	- Experience change - Observe participants’ responses	- Test implications of feedback mechanisms on virtual world
	Uncertainty	- Identify future potential scenarios and knowledge gaps	- Identify perceived uncertainties	- Incorporate uncertainties	- Stakeholders reactions to uncertainties	- Introduce uncertainties (e.g. added randomness) - Explore and experiment with different levels of uncertainties
	Iteration	- Initial process set-up	- Combine interviews with system information (simulation-guided interviews)	- Companion modelling process - Revisit islands - Improve process - Adapt approach to new context	- Show stakeholders - Improve process - Update simulation to include insights from previous sessions	- Specify human and ecological mechanisms

Figure 1. Simulation-guided interview with parts of the simulation represented.

Figure 2. Map of the Caribbean case studies (QGis- Natural earth pkg).

Table 2. Example interview questions for understanding emerging vulnerabilities using ARDI.

Focus	Questions
ARDI
Actors	What is your role in tourism services? What do you need (information, other resources) in order to enable decision-making?
Resources	What resources do you need and how often do you use them?
Dynamics	What environmental conditions do you need to provide your tourism services? What changes to environmental resources/tourism have you observed?
Interactions	What types of tourists do you depend on? What type of (other) tourism operators do you rely on? How do you use environmental resources?
Tourism operators’ perceptions
Vulnerabilities	What vulnerabilities do you perceive? What changes or challenges do you anticipate for environment and tourism? In what ways can changes affect you?
Uncertainties	What are the most important uncertainties for you related to tourism? What are the most important uncertainties for you related to tourism? In what ways can uncertainties affect you?
Adaptation	What actions can be taken to lower vulnerability? By whom?

Figure 3. Coasting simulation.

Table 3. Dynamic vulnerability approach insights for SLR.

		Methods
		Desktop research	Interviews	Simulation development	Simulation sessions	Computational modelling
Principles	Human agency	- Hotel and beachfront infrastructure affected (inundated)	- Unsure how they would be affected by 1m SLR - Not a clear plan on how to deal with SLR, unsure whether anything should be done - Concern about losing beach - Use beach nourishment to deal with erosion - SLR considered for height sea wall	- Initial set-up, choosing of location near to beach important although they are more exposed - Some mentioned the payment for more sand (beach nourishment); added as a potential action	- Option to use resources to increase beach size (input costs) - Some individuals consider beach nourishment - Recognise that beach loss is not good for tourism - People tend to build too close to the water even though it’s not allowed and/or risky	- Tendency to place hotel or beach infrastructure as close as possible to the beach
	Heterogeneity	- SLR affects land-based coastal tourism amenities more (directly)	- Some beach areas are currently growing while others are disappearing - Local researchers recognise more studies on SLR than other environmental threats	- Mangroves in some areas protect the coast to some extent from erosion (Curaçao)	- Coastal erosion used as a proxy for SLR; some areas of beach are gained, others are lost - Some individuals specifically chose not to be close to the beach - Some operators not directly affected - Location of lost and gained beach was different within and among simulations	- Use of different time scales and rates of SLR - Opportunity to act alone or collaborate - Some operators not directly affected (e.g. water-based operators)
	Feedbacks	- Global climate change effects on Caribbean islands	- Need to preserve beach area to keep tourists	- Closer to the beach is easier to get more tourists, thus many motivated to be close to the beach - Sand covers coral/ causes damage - Less resources available for other inputs or actions	- Adding sand causes “pollution”, in water area to mimic sand covering the reef - Lack of funds, unable to deal with coastal erosion - Beachfront properties most affected (e.g. revenues)	- Test how SLR relates to other internal island changes
	Uncertainty	- Degree of SLR - How it will combine with coastal erosion	- Unsure if/how 1m SLR would affect them	- Beach erosion is one of the events that can occur in the simulation, the timing uncertain - Uncertainty whether beach will naturally change back or persist - Tiles that change the coastline are randomly selected	- How much beach loss will affect their incomes - Will it go away - Location of lost and gained beach - Consequences of actions to the system - How much resources are needed for future challenges	- Multiple scenarios of rate to proxy explore uncertainty in rate of SLR on system
	Iteration	- SLR is one of the known key challenges for SIDS	- Interviews indicate that not much is known - Building plans do not significantly indicate a concern for SLR - Ongoing erosion problems, losing of beaches - Erosion which has some similar consequences is a concern	- Verifying how components are brought together with different stakeholders (e.g. location selection and reasoning therefore) - Applying different means to get participation in developing simulation (e.g. simulation-guided interviews instead of focus group sessions)	- May have less resources to deal with erosion due to previous challenges; thus unwilling or unable to pay themselves - May or may not be willing to collaborate based on previous events that participants faced, may be affected by other events that worsen effects	- Simplified behaviour choices of beach nourishment based on personal interest (i.e. owning a hotel) combined with limitations of personal resources and scenarios of SLR (timing and scale) to explore SLR vulnerability patterns