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Research Article

An analysis of close approaches and probability of collisions between LEO resident space objects and mega constellations

, ORCID Icon, &
Pages 104-120 | Received 27 Apr 2021, Accepted 15 Jan 2022, Published online: 02 Mar 2022

Figures & data

Table 1. The number and orbit of several mega constellations

Figure 1. The encounter plane of two objects(Zaidi and Hejduk Citation2016).

Figure 1. The encounter plane of two objects(Zaidi and Hejduk Citation2016).

Figure 2. The CA and collision probability distributions of the current space in the May 2019 week.

Figure 2. The CA and collision probability distributions of the current space in the May 2019 week.

Table 2. Grouping CAs in the 800 km – 900 km altitude region in terms of RSO size

Figure 3. Collision probability map before (left) and after (right) adjusting only one of two RSO sizes in the original SS CAs from small to large.

Figure 3. Collision probability map before (left) and after (right) adjusting only one of two RSO sizes in the original SS CAs from small to large.

Figure 4. CAs in four weeks over a year.

Figure 4. CAs in four weeks over a year.

Table 3. Numbers of RSOs and CAs in the chosen representative 4 weeks

Figure 5. Distributions of CAs according to RSO type and size. The left one is the CA distribution with respect to the RSO type, and the right one to the RSO size. Sat stands for satellites, R/B for rocket body, and Deb for debris.

Figure 5. Distributions of CAs according to RSO type and size. The left one is the CA distribution with respect to the RSO type, and the right one to the RSO size. Sat stands for satellites, R/B for rocket body, and Deb for debris.

Table 4. Design of simulated constellations

Figure 6. RSO partitions of CAs with Starlink-like constellation in the May 2019 week.

Figure 6. RSO partitions of CAs with Starlink-like constellation in the May 2019 week.

Figure 7. CAs and collision probability map in sub-constellation shells without and with the Starlink-like constellation.

Figure 7. CAs and collision probability map in sub-constellation shells without and with the Starlink-like constellation.

Table 5. Changes on the number of CAs at corresponding shells

Figure 8. Red and yellow warning increases due to the Starlink-like constellation.

Figure 8. Red and yellow warning increases due to the Starlink-like constellation.

Table 6. The number of red and yellow warnings CAs due to the Starlink constellation

Table 7. The changes of overall collision probability in the May week due to the Starlink-like constellation

Figure 9. Partition of the CAs involving Starlink-like satellites in terms of RSO type.

Figure 9. Partition of the CAs involving Starlink-like satellites in terms of RSO type.

Table 8. Orbital information and effects of two Chinese constellations

Table 9. Orbits of hypothetical constellations

Figure 10. Effects of three hypothetical LEO constellations and CON.2 on corresponding regions.

Figure 10. Effects of three hypothetical LEO constellations and CON.2 on corresponding regions.

Table 10. Changes on numbers of CA at corresponding shells

Figure 11. Red and yellow warning increases due to the hypothetical constellations.

Figure 11. Red and yellow warning increases due to the hypothetical constellations.

Table 11. The overall collision probability changes due to the hypothetical constellations

Figure 12. Increased warnings involving RSO satellites. The upper one is the increased red warnings and the lower one on the yellow warnings. The bar charts in the green box are for warnings due to the three hypothetical constellations, and the rest of the charts to the Starlink-like sub-constellations.

Figure 12. Increased warnings involving RSO satellites. The upper one is the increased red warnings and the lower one on the yellow warnings. The bar charts in the green box are for warnings due to the three hypothetical constellations, and the rest of the charts to the Starlink-like sub-constellations.

Table 12. The increased warnings involving RSO satellites

Table 13. The comparison of the effect of ICON.2 and ICON.4 on RSOs

Figure 13. Latitudinal distribution of CA numbers within 790–810 km.

Figure 13. Latitudinal distribution of CA numbers within 790–810 km.

Table 14. The CAs and overall collision probability between E-Hongyan and CON.2 over a week