Effect of source-varying input data on erosion potential model performance

Abstract

This paper examines the performance of the Erosion Potential Method (EPM or Gavrilović) and the model response to input data variations caused by choosing different sources of information for the same parameter. The research presented addresses the input data uncertainty via an analysis of the two model input parameters (the soil protection coefficient and the soil erodibility coefficient). The parameter uncertainty analysis is performed following two different approaches: uncertainty analyses of both the selected sample size and the entire population are conducted for an erosion assessment case study of the Dubračina River catchment, Croatia. The analysis indicated that, when changing the data source, significant changes in the model outcome values can occur (up to 47% for this case study). Future method modifications should consider the mitigation of these two parameters by potentially making structural changes in the model and therefore moderating the effect.

Keywords:

• Sediment production
• uncertainty analysis
• source-varying data
• Erosion Potential Method
• Gavrilović method

Acknowledgements

The authors thank the University of Rijeka for financially supporting the publication of this paper (research project: 13.05.1.3.08 - Development of New Methodologies in Water and Soil Management in Karstic, Sensitive and Protected Areas) and ‘Hydrology of Sensitive Water Resources in Karst’ (114-0982709-2549) financed by the Ministry of Science, Education and Sports of the Republic of Croatia and Hydrology of water resources and risk identification of flooding and mudflows in the karst areas (13.05.1.1.03.). This research was based on the work conducted within the mentioned projects as well as within the Croatian-Japanese project ‘Risk identification and Land-Use Planning for Disaster Mitigation of Landslides and Floods in Croatia’.