Past and future land-use/land-cover change trends and its potential drivers in Koore’s agricultural landscape, Southern Ethiopia

Figures & data

Figure 1. Map of study landscape.

Table 1. Contextual description of the LULC classes.

LULC Class	Description
Forest land	A land dominated by trees with greater than 80% canopy cover. It is a multi-strata community, with interlocking canopies.
Agroforestry	Multi-strata agro-forest area in which annual/perennial crops and/or animals are deliberately used on the same land-management units.
Woodland	Areas dominated by woody plants with a height range of 5–20 m. Tree canopy cover between 40-70 %. A closed-to-open canopy community consists of a single tree canopy layer, shrub, bushes and herb layers.
Grazing land	All areas of grassland with less than 10% tree and/or shrub canopy cover, are dominated by grass-like, non-woody, rooted herbaceous plants that are used for livestock grazing.
Shrub/bush land	Communities are dominated by low, woody, self-supporting, multistemmed plants branching at or near the ground, between 0.2-2 m in height. Total tree cover <1%.
Wetland/Marshes	It includes papyrus and phragmites swamps along with the river banks and the lakeshore areas. Swampy areas, meadows, either seasonal or permanent waterlogged areas are considered wetlands.
Water body	Refers to lakes and ponds.
Cultivation land	Land that plowed and/or prepared for annual cropping. The category includes areas under crop, fallow, and land prepared for planting.
Built-up/settlement	A land dominated by houses and huts.
Bare land	Area dominated by rock outcrops, roads, and degraded lands.

Table 2. Kappa index CA-Markov model validation result.

Parameter	Value
Kstandard	0.96
Kno	0.97
Klocaton	0.98

Figure 2. Methodological flow chart of LULC change detection and modeling.

Table 3. Accuracy assessment results of classified images.

LULC classes	Accuracy (%)
	1990		2005		2020
	Producer’s	User’s	Producer’s	User’s	Producer’s	User’s
Agroforestry	88.3	86.7	90.1	90.1	88.7	90.2
Bare land	92.6	92.6	94.4	87.9	96	92.3
Built-up/settlement	94.8	96.5	95.4	94.0	98.5	95.6
Bush/shrub land	83.3	84.9	86.8	88.5	91.1	86.4
Cultivation land	89.6	90.5	88.6	91.8	92.9	89.7
Forest land	76.6	83.6	76.4	84	81.4	87.3
Grazing land	87.9	82.3	87.1	87.1	80.6	88.5
Water body	100	100	100	100	100	100
Wetland	87.5	87.5	90	90	86.1	86.1
Woodland	88.9	85.1	95.5	86	89.8	88.0
Overall accuracy	88.47		89.84		90.15
Kappa coefficient	0.85		0.87		0.88

Table 4. LULC classes and their changed shares in 1990, 2005 and 2020.

	1990		2005		2020
LULC class	Area (ha)	Area (%)	Area (ha)	Area (%)	Area (ha)	Area (%)
Agroforestry	6838.1	4.84	9874.8	7.00	19932.7	14.12
Bare land	172.9	0.12	173.4	0.12	435.6	0.31
Built-up/settlement	422.9	0.30	649.4	0.46	2135.9	1.51
Bush/shrub land	11366.9	8.05	9222.8	6.53	7969.4	5.64
Cultivation land	69948.2	49.54	75476	53.45	82126.4	58.17
Forest land	16563.7	11.73	14686.4	10.4	13210.3	9.36
Grazing land	21716.3	15.38	18330.1	13.00	5963.9	4.22
Water body	6372.2	4.51	6003	4.25	6205.6	4.40
Wetland	1036.8	0.73	1003.2	0.71	171.2	0.12
Woodland	6752.7	4.80	5771.6	4.08	3039.7	2.15
Total area	141190.7	100%	141190.7	100%	141190.7	100%

Figure 3. LULC Maps of 1990 (a), 2005 (B), and 2020 (C).

Figure 4. Suitability maps of spatial drivers.

Table 5. LULC change statistics (in hectares).

LULC classes	Net change in 1990 − 2005			Net change in 2005 − 2020			Net change in 1990 − 2020
	ha	%	ACR	ha	%	ACR	ha	%	ACR
Agroforestry	3036.7	44.41	2.96	10057.9	101.85	6.79	13094.6	191.49	12.77
Bare land	0.5	0.29	0.02	262.2	151.21	10.08	262.7	151.94	10.13
Built-up	226.5	54.56	3.64	1486.5	228.90	15.26	1713	405.06	27.00
Bush land	−2144.1	−18.86	−1.26	−1253.4	−13.59	−0.91	−3397.5	−29.89	−1.99
Cultivation	5527.8	7.90	0.53	6650.4	8.81	0.59	12178.2	17.49	1.17
Forest	−1877.3	−11.33	−0.76	−1476.1	−10.05	−0.67	−3353.4	−20.25	−1.35
Grazing land	−3386.2	−15.59	−1.04	−12366.2	−67.46	−4.5	−15752.4	−72.54	−4.84
Water body	−369.2	−5.79	−0.39	202.6	3.37	0.22	−166.6	−2.61	−0.17
Wetland	−33.6	−3.24	−0.22	−832	−82.93	−5.53	−865.6	−83.49	−5.57
Woodland	−981.1	−14.53	−0.97	−2731.9	−47.33	−3.16	−3713	−54.98	−3.66

Table 6. LULC change transition matrix of 1990–2005 in hectares.

LULC	Ag	Ba	Bui	Bu	Cu	Fo	Gr	Wb	We	Wo	Total 1990
Ag	2830.4	0.3	119.1	487	1359.8	1150.1	668.4	–	–	223	6838.1
Ba	0.5	160.2	–	0.2	1.7	1.3	9	–	–	–	172.9
Bui	–	–	421.4	–	1.5	–	–	–	–	–	422.9
Bu	520	0.7	1.2	3941.1	2831.4	2882.6	687.1	–	0.5	502.3	11366.9
Cu	2940.4	6.2	96.8	886.7	56868.3	4855.7	7511.4	–	21.8	996.6	69948.2
Fo	2146.6	3.5	0.4	1275.5	2833.6	3424.7	1838	0.1	20	785.6	16563.7
Gr	1329.2	2.3	10	751	10055	1729.5	7437.7	–	81.6	320	21716.3
Wb	3.7		–	5.5	233	36.4	72.5	6002.5	13.5	5.1	6372.2
We	11.3	0.2	–	2.5	39.1	38	80.6	0.4	864.3	0.4	1036.8
Wo	92.7		0.5	1873.3	1252.6	568.1	25.4	–	1.5	2938.6	6752.7
T05	9874.8	173.4	649.4	9222.8	75476	14686.4	18330.1	6003	1003.2	5771.6	141190.7
Gn	7044.4	13.2	228	5281.7	18607.7	11261.7	10892.4	0.5	138.9	2833
Ls	4007.7	12.7	1.5	7425.8	13079.9	13139	14278.6	369.7	172.5	3814.1
NC	3036.7	0.5	226.5	−2144.1	5527.8	−1877.3	−3386.2	−369.2	−33.6	−981.1
AC	202.45	0.03	15.1	−142.94	368.52	−125.15	−225.75	−24.61	−2.24	−65.41
NP	1.10	–	0.54	−0.54	0.10	−0.55	−0.46	−0.06	−0.04	−0.33

Where: Ag = Agroforestry, Ba = Bare land, Bui = Built-up, Bu = Bush land, Cu = Cultivation land, Fo = Forest, Gr = Grassland, Wb = Water body, We = Wetland, Wo = Woodland, T05 = Total 2005 Gn = Gain, Ls = Loss, NC = Net Change, AC = Annual Change, NP = Net Persistent.

Table 7. LULC change transition matrix of 2005–2020 in hectares.

LULC	Ag	Ba	Bui	Bu	Cu	Fo	Gr	Wb	We	Wo	Total 2005
Ag	4906.8	1.2	421	375.5	2630.6	1228.4	191.7	0.4	7.8	111.4	9874.8
Ba	12.6	79.7	–	5.2	10.7	4.8	60.3	–	–	0.1	173.4
Bui	1.3	–	643.1	–	5	–	–	–	–	–	649.4
Bu	1535	11.6	1019.5	2555.3	1915.6	1405	35.8	4.6	1.7	738.7	9222.8
Cu	6596	66.5	42.7	1836	62805.4	2361.6	658.6	122.8	9.7	976.7	75476
Fo	3056.8	73.5	2.7	1415.1	2504.9	5932	933.6	52.8	79.4	635.6	14686.4
Gr	2899.1	175.4	4.6	794	9721.4	629.6	4020.9	8.4	10	66.7	18330.1
Wb	–	–	–	–	2	–	–	6001	–	–	6003
We	122.7	27.2	–	22.8	652.1	45.2	59.5	10.6	61.3	1.8	1003.2
Wo	802.4	0.5	2.3	965.5	1878.7	1603.7	3.5	5	1.3	508.7	5771.6
T20	19932.7	435.6	2135.9	7969.4	82126.4	13210.3	5963.9	6205.6	171.2	3039.7	141190.7
Gn	15025.9	355.9	1492.8	5414.1	19321	7278.3	1943	204.6	109.9	2531
Ls	4968	93.7	6.3	6667.5	12670.6	8754.4	14309.2	2.0	941.9	5262.9
NC	10057.9	262.2	1486.5	−1253.4	6650.4	−1476.1	−12366.2	−202.6	−832	−2731.9
AC	670.5	17.5	99.1	−83.6	443.4	−98.4	−824.4	−13.5	−55.5	−182.1
NP	2.1	3.3	2.3	−0.5	0.1	−0.3	−0.2	−0.03	−13.6	−5.4

Where: T20 = Total 2020.

Table 8. LULC change transition matrix of 1990–2020 in hectares.

LULC	Ag	Ba	Bui	Bu	Cu	Fo	Gr	Wb	We	Wo	Total 1990
Ag	4835.1	9.2	65.6	552.4	540.6	629.4	74.6	0.2	64.7	66.3	6838.1
Ba	12.5	80		4	11.4	4.5	59.3	–	–	1.2	172.9
Bui	1.5	–	421.4	–	–	–	–	–	–		422.9
Bu	1002.5	24.4	1391	2321.6	4142.2	1797.6	171.1		0.2	516.3	11366.9
Cu	7821	129.5	240.1	508.6	59899.2	3574.5	211.5	16.1	6.2	141.5	69948.2
Fo	4227.2	96.8	0.5	1726.4	3819.6	5197.4	171.7	–	3.8	660.3	16563.7
Gr	1194.6	72.8	16.6	1436.2	17702.6	375.3	5132.7	–	5.5	80	21716.3
Wb	–	–	–	–	166	–	–	6187.64	18.56	–	6372.2
We	40.7	22.7		7.1	721.4	29	141	1.66	71.74	1.5	1036.8
Wo	797.6	0.2	0.7	1513.1	1363.4	1502.6	2	–	0.5	1572.6	6752.7
T20	19932.7	435.6	2135.9	7969.4	82126.4	13210.3	5963.9	6205.6	171.2	3039.7	141190.7
Gain	15097.6	355.6	1714.4	5647.8	22227.2	8012.9	831.2	17.96	99.46	1467.1
Loss	2003.0	92.90	1.50	9045.3	10049	11366.3	16583.6	184.56	965.1	5180.1
NC	13094.6	262.7	1712.9	−3397.5	12178.2	−3353.4	−15752.4	−166.6	−865.6	−3713
AC	873.0	17.51	114.2	−226.5	811.88	−223.56	−1050.2	−11.11	−57.7	247.5
NP	2.71	3.28	4.10	−1.46	0.20	−0.65	−3.10	−0.03	−8.70	−2.53

Table 9. Identified potential LULC change drivers of the landscape.

No	Proximity drivers	RII	Rank	Underlying drivers	RII	Rank
1	Agriculture expansion	0.80	2	Population growth	0.83	1
2	Wood extraction	0.74	4	Land degradation	0.79	3
3	Timber production	0.68	9	Lack of law enforcement	0.71	6
4	Mono cropping culture	0.70	7	Political instability	0.69	8
5	Over grazing	0.64	13	Drought	0.68	9
6	Settlements	0.66	12	Lack of livelihood options	0.72	5
7	Bush fires	0.62	14	Landscape features	0.67	11
8				Land tenure	0.60	15

Table 10. Driver factors and their weight.

Factors (Spatial drivers)	Weight
Distance to roads	0.25%
Distance to rivers	0.25%
Distance to settlement	0.20%
Elevation	0.15%
Slope	0.15%

Figure 5. A = Actual LULC map of 2020, B = simulated LULC map of 2020, and C = predicted LULC map of 2035.

Table 11. Kappa index result of the model validation.

Parameter	Value
Kstandard	0.96
Kno	0.97
Klocaton	0.98

Table 12. Actual and simulated LULC changes in 2020.

LULC types	Actual area		Simulated area		Net area difference (%)
	(ha)	%	(ha)	%
Agroforestry	19932.7	14.12	20238.2	14.33	0.21
Bare land	435.6	0.31	444.3	0.32	0.01
Built-up	2135.9	1.51	2193.1	1.55	0.04
Bush land	7969.4	5.64	7995.0	5.66	0.02
Cultivation	82126.4	58.17	82524.2	58.45	0.28
Forest	13210.3	9.36	12774.6	9.05	0.31
Grazingland	5963.9	4.22	5914.6	4.19	0.03
Water body	6205.6	4.40	6207.3	4.40	0.00
Wetland	171.2	0.12	168.5	0.12	0.00
Woodland	3039.7	2.15	2730.9	1.93	0.22
Total	141190.7	100	141190.7	100

Table 13. LULC area coverage, its Percent, and rate of changes between 2020 and 2035.

LULC class	Area of 2020		Area of 2035		Gain/Loss of 2020 − 2035
	Ha	%	Ha	%	Area (ha)	%	Annual change (%)
Agroforestry	19932.7	14.12	23703.2	16.79	3770.49	18.92	1.26
Bare land	435.6	0.31	606.8	0.43	171.20	39.30	2.62
Built-up	2135.9	1.51	2716.3	1.92	580.41	27.17	1.81
Bush land	7969.4	5.64	6284	4.45	−1685.30	−21.15	−1.41
Farmland	82126.4	58.17	86167.3	61.03	4040.90	4.92	0.33
Forest	13210.3	9.36	9760.5	6.91	−3449.80	−26.11	−1.74
Grazingland	5963.9	4.22	3822.3	2.71	−2141.60	−35.91	−2.40
Water body	6205.6	4.40	6197.3	4.39	−8.30	−0.13	−0.01
Wetland	171.2	0.12	127.9	0.09	−43.30	−25.29	−1.70
Woodland	3039.7	2.15	1805.1	1.28	−1234.60	−40.62	−2.71
Total	141190.7	100%	141190.7	100%

Figure 6. A = 1990, 2005, 2020, and 2035 coverage of LULC classes; B = Net change of past three decades; C = net change of LULC classes over prediction period.

Table 14. LULC change transition matrix of 2020–2035 in hectares.

LULC	Ag	Ba	Bui	Bu	Fa	Fo	Gr	Wb	We	Wo	Total 2020
Ag	17691.5	29.8	263	423	837.1	440.2	131	–	2	115.1	19932.7
Ba	68	217.3	0.1	30	48.4	8.2	62	–	0.2	1.4	435.6
Bui	19	0.2	2076.8	1.1	37	0.7	1.1	–	–	–	2135.9
Bu	1353.2	7.5	33	4304	1727	377.5	15	–	0.6	151.6	7969.4
Fa	3094.6	228	270.7	421.6	77110.3	529.7	457.1	3.6	0.3	10.5	82126.4
Fo	1556.4	21.2	50	871.6	2266.1	8179	46.5	–		219.5	13210.3
Gr	5.8	100.7	19.1	67.1	2603.5	63	3092.4	–	10.5	1.8	5963.9
Wb	0.3	–	–	–	27.1	–	–	6178.2	–	–	6205.6
We	23.6	–	–	0.6	2.6	2.1	14.1	15.5	112.7	–	171.2
Wo	390.8	2.1	3.6	165	1508.2	160.1	3.1	–	1.6	1305.2	3039.7
T35	23703.2	606.8	2716.3	6284	86167.3	9760.5	3822.3	6197.3	127.9	1805.1	141190.7
Gain	6011.7	389.5	639.5	1980	9057	1581.5	729.9	19.1	15.2	499.9
Loss	2241.2	218.3	59.1	3665.4	5016.1	5031.3	2871.5	27.4	58.5	1734.5
NC	3770.5	171.2	580.4	−1685.4	4040.9	−3449.8	−2141.6	−8.3	−43.3	−1234.6
NP	0.21	0.79	0.28	−0.39	0.10	−0.41	−0.69	−0.00	−0.38	−0.95

Where: T35 = Total 2035, NC = Net change, and NP = Net Persistent.

Figure A1. A = Map of 1990, B = map of 2005, C = map of 2020.

Figure B1. A = Actual LULC map of 2020, B = simulated LULC map of 2020, and C = predicted LULC map of 2035.

Table C1. LULC accuracy assessment in 1990.

LULC	Ag	Ba	Bui	Bus	Fa	Fo	Gr	Wa	We	Wo	Total	U.A^b
Ag	98	0	0	4	1	7	0	0	0	3	113	86.7
Ba	0	50	1	0	2	0	1	0	0	0	54	92.6
Bui	0	0	55	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	57	96.5
Bus	2	0	0	45	2	4	0	0	0	0	53	84.9
Fa	3	1	1	2	95	0	2	0	1	0	105	90.5
Fo	4	0	0	3	0	46	0	0	0	2	55	83.6
Gr	0	2	1	0	4	0	51	0	4	0	62	82.3
Wa	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	30	0	0	30	100
We	0	1	0	0	1	0	3	0	35	0	40	87.5
Wo	4	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	40	47	85.1
Total	111	54	58	54	106	60	58	30	40	45	616	Correctly classified = 545
P.A^a	88.3	92.6	94.8	83.3	89.6	76.6	87.9	100	87.5	88.9
Overall accuracy = 88.47%; Kappa coefficient = 0.85

Table C2. LULC accuracy assessment in 2005.

LULC	Ag	Ba	Bui	Bus	Fa	Fo	Gr	Wa	We	Wo	Total	U.A^b
Ag	100	0	0	3	2	6	0	0	0	0	111	90.1
Ba	0	51	2	0	3	0	2	0	0	0	58	87.9
Bui	0	1	63	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	67	94
Bus	2	0	0	46	1	3	0	0	0	0	52	88.5
Fa	3	1	1	1	101	0	2	0	1	0	110	91.8
Fo	3	0	0	3	0	42	0	0	0	2	50	84
Gr	0	1	0	0	4	0	54	0	3	0	62	87.1
Wa	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	30	0	0	30	100
We	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	36	0	40	90
Wo	3	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	43	50	86
Total	111	54	66	53	114	55	62	30	40	45	630	Correctly classified = 566
P.A^a	90.1	94.4	95.4	86.8	88.6	76.4	87.1	100	90	95.5
Overall accuracy = 89.84%; Kappa coefficient = 0.87

Where: Ag (Agroforestry), Ba (Bareland), Bui (Built up), Bus (Bushland), Fa (Farmland), Fo (Forest), Gr (Grassland), Wa (Waterbody), We (Wetland), Wo (Woodland).

P.A^a : Producer’s Accuracy.

U.A^b : User’s Accuracy.

Table C3. LULC accuracy assessment in 2020.

LULC	Ag	Ba	Bui	Bus	Fa	Fo	Gr	Wa	We	Wo	Total	U.A^b
Ag	110	0	0	3	2	5	0	0	0	2	122	90.2
Ba	0	48	1	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	52	92.3
Bui	0	0	65	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	68	95.6
Bus	3	0	0	51	0	3	0	0	0	2	59	86.4
Fa	3	1	0	1	105	0	5	0	2	0	117	89.7
Fo	5	0	0	1	0	48	0	0	0	1	55	87.3
Gr	0	1	0	0	3	0	54	0	3	0	61	88.5
Wa	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	30	0	0	30	100
We	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	0	31	0	36	86.1
Wo	3	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	44	50	88
Total	124	50	66	56	113	59	67	30	36	49	650	Correctly classified = 586
P.A^a	88.7	96	98.5	91.1	92.9	81.4	80.6	100	86.1	89.8
Overall accuracy = 90.15%; Kappa coefficient = 0.88

Data availability statement

The data that has been used is confidential. All landsat images were acquired from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) website available at (https://earthexplorer.usgs.gov).