External Debts, Re-Election Possibilities and the Infrastructure Development Via Public Private Partnership: Evidence from Low- and Middle-Income Countries

Figures & data

Table 1. Construction of variables.

Category	Name	Measurement	Data source
Dependent variable of interest	Number	Aggregate number of projects implemented through public private partnership in country i in year t	PPI (2023)
Independent variable of interest	Shortdebt	Ratio of short external debt stock to total external debt stock, both in DOD, current USD	World Bank (2021)
Independent variable of interest for robust check	Shortdebt(ln)	Logarithm value of short external debt stock (in DOD, current USD) to gross capital formation (current USD)	World Bank (2021)
Independent variable of interest	Election	Binary variable takes value of ‘unit' if the existing government face no limitation at all, either in the absence of any provision to the contrary or with a specific provision allowing for unlimited re-election', otherwise. Otherwise stands for cases include limitation on consecutive terms (with no maximum number); limitation through fixed number (two) of possible terms'; limitation through fixed number (two) of possible consecutive terms, and absolute ban on re-election.	The Database of Political Institutions of the Inter-American Development Bank (2020)
Independent variable of interest for robust check	Years in office	Years has the chief executive been in office	The Database of Political Institutions of the Inter-American Development Bank (2020)
Control variable	GDP per capita	GDP per capita, PPP (current international USD)	World Bank (2021)
Control variable	Reserve	Total reserves in months of imports	World Bank (2021)
Control variable	Inflation	Consumer price (annual %)	World Bank (2021)
Control variable	Population	Population growth (annual %)	World Bank (2021)
Control variable	Resource	Total natural resources rents (% of GDP)	World Bank (2021)

Table 2. Descriptive statistics.

Variable	Obs	Mean	Std. dev.	Min	Max
Number	267	3.108.614	3.540.236	1	25
Shortdebt	235	.1413383	.078333	0	.4096361
Shortdebt(ln)	230	−1.939.071	2.130.128	−18.002	.2827075
GDP per capita	244	11017.42	7.188.073	1.901.717	29564.01
Reserve	234	5.764.138	3.569.553	.8823208	3.379.144
Inflation	241	5.685.705	4.354.177	−1.403.608	2.950.661
Resource	226	4.694.488	4.700.687	.0689198	2.453.419
Population	244	1.316.835	.8283626	-.802164	3.755.687
Election	267	.329588	.4709463	0	1
Years in office	244	5.536.885	6.190.617	1	34

Table 3. Correlation matrix of independent variables.

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)	(9)
Shortdebt	1.0000
Shortdebt(ln)	0.4994	1.0000
GDP per capita	0.3434	0.2674	1.0000
Reserve	0.0631	−0.1017	0.2223	1.0000
Inflation	−0.0311	−0.1160	−0.1210	−0.1600	1.0000
Resource	−0.2299	−0.3664	0.0447	0.2998	0.1633	1.0000
Population	−0.3151	−0.3509	−0.3948	−0.1321	0.2324	0.1552	1.0000
Election	0.0777	−0.0145	−0.1761	−0.0758	0.0610	−0.0121	−0.0836	1.0000
Years in office	−0.1531	−0.0630	−0.0880	−0.0185	0.0499	0.2963	0.3403	0.2711	1.0000

Table 4. Poisson and negative binomial regression results.

VARIABLES	Annual number of Public Private Partnership Projects
	Poisson	Negative Binomial	Zero-Truncated Negative Binomial
Shortdebt	3.686***	3.925**	6.010**
	(0.970)	(1.540)	(2.402)
Election	−0.564***	−0.568***	−0.947***
	(0.130)	(0.198)	(0.312)
GDP per capita	4.22e05***	4.98e05***	6.97e05***
	(1.16e05)	(1.82e05)	(2.69e05)
Reserve	0.0550**	0.0661**	0.111**
	(0.0221)	(0.0333)	(0.0512)
Inflation	0.0391***	0.0351**	0.0423*
	(0.0104)	(0.0173)	(0.0252)
Resource	−0.0369**	−0.0498*	−0.0881**
	(0.0174)	(0.0264)	(0.0426)
Population	0.439***	0.413***	0.571**
	(0.106)	(0.155)	(0.243)
Constant	−0.0308	0.0634	−0.582
	(0.600)	(0.868)	−1.292
Observations	103	103	103
r2_p	0.221	0.103	0.0964
alpha		0.286	0.715
ll	−260.0	−230.6	−209.4
ll_0	−333.7	−257.0	−231.7
chi2	147.3	52.75	44.69
p	0	8.27e08	2.47e06

Standard errors in parentheses.

*** p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05, * p < 0.1.

Table 5. Robustness check with alternative main independent variables.

VARIABLES	Annual Number of Public Private Partnership Projects
	Poisson	Negative Binomial	Zero Truncated Negative Binomial	Poisson	Negative Binomial	Zero Truncated Negative Binomial
Shortdebt(ln)	0.255***	0.152*	0.534**
	(0.0967)	(0.0920)	(0.230)
Shortdebt				3.055***	2.955**	4.257*
				(0.985)	(1.475)	(2.267)
Election	−0.335***	−0.350*	−0.496*
	(0.129)	(0.193)	(0.294)
Years in Office				−0.0356***	−0.0423**	−0.0783**
				(0.0132)	(0.0209)	(0.0358)
GDP per capita	4.67e05***	5.76e05***	6.50e05**	3.00e05***	4.52e05**	6.79e05**
	(1.15e05)	(1.80e05)	(2.76e05)	(1.13e05)	(1.88e05)	(2.95e05)
Reserve	0.0756***	0.0906***	0.133***	0.0426*	0.0530	0.0937*
	(0.0210)	(0.0328)	(0.0512)	(0.0228)	(0.0345)	(0.0546)
Inflation	0.0392***	0.0385**	0.0393	0.0444***	0.0382**	0.0478*
	(0.0105)	(0.0175)	(0.0257)	(0.0104)	(0.0176)	(0.0268)
Resource	−0.0361**	−0.0550**	−0.0727	−0.0110	−0.0277	−0.0580
	(0.0176)	(0.0271)	(0.0443)	(0.0182)	(0.0280)	(0.0462)
Population	0.494***	0.462***	0.691***	0.479***	0.514***	0.800***
	(0.108)	(0.160)	(0.252)	(0.104)	(0.159)	(0.262)
Constant	0.501	0.199	0.395	−0.655	−0.637	−1.874
	(0.655)	(0.897)	(1417)	(0.578)	(0.829)	(1274)
Observations	103	103	103	103	103	103
r2_p	0.217	0.0970	0.0975	0.203	0.0951	0.0884
alpha		0.296	0.701		0.315	0.895
ll	−261.2	−232.0	−209.1	−266.0	−232.5	−211.2
ll_c		−261.2	−248.1		−266.0	−259.4
chi2	144.9	49.85	45.20	135.4	48.88	40.95
p	0	2.85e07	2.00e06	0	4.28e07	1.15e05

Standard errors in parentheses.

*** p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05, * p < 0.1.

Table 6. Regressions on different sampled datasets.

VARIABLES	Annual number of Public Private Partnership Projects
	Non SSA Sample			Middle Income Sample
	Poisson	Negative Binomial	Zero Truncated Negative Binomial	Poisson	Negative Binomial	Zero Truncated Negative Binomial
Shortdebt	3.020***	2.980**	4.200**	3.708***	3.909**	5.898**
	(1026)	(1434)	(2010)	(0.973)	(1537)	(2370)
Election	−0.459***	−0.463**	−0.738***	−0.537***	−0.542***	−0.890***
	(0.136)	(0.188)	(0.274)	(0.133)	(0.203)	(0.316)
GDP per capita	5.02e05***	5.60e05***	7.49e05***	4.10e05***	4.86e05***	6.74e05**
	(1.27e05)	(1.78e05)	(2.45e05)	(1.17e05)	(1.84e05)	(2.68e05)
Reserve	0.0722***	0.0804**	0.121***	0.0529**	0.0644*	0.107**
	(0.0231)	(0.0319)	(0.0461)	(0.0222)	(0.0335)	(0.0510)
Inflation	0.0377***	0.0342**	0.0391*	0.0393***	0.0353**	0.0425*
	(0.0106)	(0.0158)	(0.0214)	(0.0104)	(0.0174)	(0.0252)
Resource	−0.0397**	−0.0526*	−0.0851**	−0.0334*	−0.0470*	−0.0818*
	(0.0197)	(0.0270)	(0.0410)	(0.0176)	(0.0269)	(0.0428)
Population	0.504***	0.476***	0.641***	0.461***	0.434***	0.612**
	(0.118)	(0.155)	(0.226)	(0.109)	(0.160)	(0.249)
Constant	0.159	0.214	−0.266	−0.102	−0.00173	−0.714
	(0.622)	(0.824)	(1157)	(0.605)	(0.877)	(1298)
Observations	95	95	95	102	102	102
r2_p	0.239	0.119	0.113	0.219	0.101	0.0942
ll	−220.0	−205.5	−189.1	−258.5	−229.3	−208.9
ll_0	−289.2	−233.2	−213.2	−330.9	−255.0	−230.6
chi2	138.3	55.42	48.22	144.8	51.48	43.45
p	0	2.64e08	5.65e07	0	1.42e07	4.14e06

Standard errors in parentheses: *** p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05, * p < 0.1;

Note: SSA = Sub-Saharan African countries.

Figure A1. Histogram of number of projects variable.

Table A1. List of sampled countries.

No.	Country Name	ISO	Low-income	Lower middle income	Upper middle income
1	Albania	ALB	0	0	1
2	Algeria	DZA	0	1	0
3	Armenia	ARM	0	0	1
4	Bangladesh	BGD	0	1	0
5	Bulgaria	BGR	0	0	1
6	Cambodia	KHM	0	1	0
7	Colombia	COL	0	0	1
8	Costa Rica	CRI	0	0	1
9	Côte d'Ivoire	CIV	0	1	0
10	Dominican Republic	DOM	0	0	1
11	Ecuador	ECU	0	0	1
12	Egypt, Arab Rep.	EGY	0	1	0
13	El Salvador	SLV	0	1	0
14	Georgia	GEO	0	0	1
15	Ghana	GHA	0	1	0
16	Guatemala	GTM	0	0	1
17	Honduras	HND	0	1	0
18	Indonesia	IDN	0	1	0
19	Jordan	JOR	0	0	1
20	Kazakhstan	KAZ	0	0	1
21	Kenya	KEN	0	1	0
22	Lao PDR	LAO	0	1	0
23	Malaysia	MYS	0	0	1
24	Mexico	MEX	0	0	1
25	Morocco	MAR	0	1	0
26	Nepal	NPL	0	1	0
27	Nigeria	NGA	0	1	0
28	Pakistan	PAK	0	1	0
29	Peru	PER	0	0	1
30	Philippines	PHL	0	1	0
31	Russian Federation	RUS	0	0	1
32	Senegal	SEN	0	1	0
33	South Africa	ZAF	0	0	1
34	Sri Lanka	LKA	0	1	0
35	Tanzania	TZA	0	1	0
36	Thailand	THA	0	0	1
37	Turkey	TUR	0	0	1
38	Uganda	UGA	1	0	0
39	Ukraine	UKR	0	1	0
40	Vietnam	VNM	0	1	0
	Total		1	21	18

Table A2. Classification of reelection limitation.

Code	Type of Limitations for the chief executive to have their ability of being reelected?
1	No limitation at all, either in the absence of any provision to the contrary or with a specific provision allowing for unlimited re-election
2	Limitation on consecutive terms (with no maximum number)
3	Limitation through fixed number (two) of possible terms
4	Limitation through fixed number (two) of possible consecutive terms
5	Absolute ban on re-election
6*	Limitation through fixed number (three) of possible consecutive terms
7*	Re-election possible after sitting out two consecutive terms
8*	Limitation on consecutive terms (with fixed number = 2)

Note: * there is only one country under this category.

Source: The Inter-American Development Bank (2020).

PPI. (2023). https://ppi.worldbank.org/en/resources/additional-resources.

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World Bank. (2021). https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators.

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The Database of Political Institutions of the Inter-American Development Bank. (2020). https://publications.iadb.org/en/database-political-institutions-2020-dpi2020.

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