NATO at 70: Pledges, Free Riding, and Benefit-Burden Concordance

Figures & data

Table 1. Military expenditure as a share of gross domestic product: 2010–2018 (in percent).

	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Albania	1.56	1.53	1.49	1.41	1.35	1.16	1.10	1.11	1.18
Belgium	1.08	1.04	1.04	1.01	0.98	0.92	0.92	0.91	0.93
Bulgaria	1.77	1.44	1.50	1.62	1.47	1.32	1.42	1.42	1.69
Canada	1.20	1.20	1.12	1.00	0.99	1.15	1.16	1.29	1.25
Croatia	1.70	1.77	1.69	1.65	1.57	1.52	1.36	1.43	1.47
Czech Rep.	1.20	1.09	1.07	1.03	0.97	0.95	1.00	0.97	1.12
Denmark	1.40	1.31	1.35	1.23	1.15	1.11	1.15	1.15	1.18
Estonia	1.70	1.68	1.90	1.91	1.92	2.02	2.08	2.03	2.06
France	2.34	2.26	2.24	2.22	2.23	2.27	2.33	2.35	2.29
Germany	1.35	1.28	1.31	1.22	1.18	1.18	1.19	1.23	1.23
Greece	2.73	2.48	2.41	2.36	2.33	2.45	2.54	2.52	2.39
Hungary	1.03	1.05	1.03	0.95	0.86	0.92	1.02	1.05	1.08
Italy	1.51	1.49	1.44	1.41	1.29	1.21	1.34	1.37	1.33
Latvia	1.09	1.04	0.91	0.94	0.94	1.05	1.47	1.68	1.98
Lithuania	0.88	0.79	0.77	0.76	0.88	1.14	1.48	1.72	1.96
Luxembourg	0.52	0.43	0.42	0.42	0.42	0.48	0.44	0.58	0.61
Montenegro								1.36	1.55
Netherlands	1.33	1.29	1.24	1.17	1.16	1.13	1.16	1.16	1.24
Norway	1.51	1.45	1.40	1.41	1.47	1.50	1.62	1.62	1.61
Poland	1.83	1.79	1.80	1.77	1.90	2.14	1.94	1.90	1.98
Portugal	1.98	2.00	1.91	2.09	1.79	1.79	1.73	1.67	1.78
Romania	1.26	1.30	1.23	1.28	1.35	1.45	1.40	1.72	1.93
Slovak Rep.	1.27	1.08	1.09	0.98	0.99	1.12	1.12	1.10	1.21
Slovenia	1.61	1.30	1.17	1.05	0.97	0.93	1.01	0.98	0.97
Spain	1.38	1.32	1.41	1.27	1.25	1.27	1.13	1.23	1.27
Turkey	2.32	2.08	2.05	1.96	1.90	1.85	2.07	2.07	2.50
UK	2.37	2.29	2.19	2.07	1.95	1.86	1.81	1.77	1.78
USA	4.66	4.58	4.23	3.81	3.48	3.27	3.21	3.11	3.16

These ME/GDP shares come from Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) (2019).

Table 2. Spearman rank correlations between defense burden (ME/GDP) and GDP.

	${\rho }_{12}^a$	${\rho }_{12.3}^b$	${\rho }_{12.34}^c$
1961	0.516 (0.074)*	0.531 (0.076)*	0.485 (0.014)**
1965	0.484 (0.097)*	0.534 (0.074)*	0.470 (0.018)**
1970	0.204 (0.483)	0.249 (0.411)	0.181 (0.367)
1975	0.178 (0.542)	0.175 (0.568)	0.177 (0.377)
1980	0.358 (0.209)	0.364 (0.221)	0.360 (0.065)*
1985	0.475 (0.076)*	0.522 (0.055)**	0.461 (0.012)**
1990	0.250 (0.368)	0.295 (0.367)	0.244 (0.203)
1995	0.107 (0.705)	0.145 (0.622)	0.116 (0.548)
2000	0.185 (0.462)	0.333 (0.191)	0.217 (0.211)
2005	0.102 (0.628)	0.383 (0.065)*	0.121 (0.408)
2010	0.303 (0.125)	0.410 (0.037)**	0.267 (0.053)**
2011	0.375 (0.054)*	0.491 (0.012)**	0.340 (0.013)**
2012	0.397 (0.041)**	0.522 (0.006)***	0.363 (0.008)***
2013	0.367 (0.061)*	0.494 (0.011)*	0.339 (0.013)**
2014	0.382 (0.051)*	0.502 (0.009)***	0.348 (0.011)**
2015	0.365 (0.062)*	0.496 (0.009)***	0.314 (0.022)**
2016	0.264 (0.183)	0.391 (0.048)**	0.210 (0.132)
2017	0.223 (0.253)	0.404 (0.037)**	0.171 (0.211)

*indicates p < 0.1, ** indicates p < 0.05, and *** indicates p < 0.01. P-values are in parentheses.

Variables: 1 = ME/GDP; 2 = GDP; 3 = GDP/POP; 4 = exposed borders.

${ }^a$Simple rank correlation coefficient.

${ }^b$Partial rank correlation coefficient with GDP/POP held constant.

${ }^c$Partial rank correlation coefficient with GDP/POP and Exposed Borders held constant.

Table 3. Defense burdens and average benefit share in NATO using GDP, population, exposed borders, and terrorism against targeted country’s interests (average share 3) as proxies for benefits: 2011–2017.

	2011		2012		2013		2014		2015		2016		2017
	Defense burden	Average benefit share	Defense burden	Average benefit share	Defense burden	Average benefit share	Defense burden	Average benefit share	Defense burden	Average benefit share	Defense burden	Average benefit share	Defense burden	Average benefit share
Albania	0.02	0.15	0.02	0.15	0.02	0.15	0.02	0.41	0.02	0.15	0.02	0.15	0.02	0.13
Belgium	0.46	1.15	0.47	0.93	0.49	0.67	0.51	1.18	0.49	1.42	0.50	1.43	0.49	1.51
Bulgaria	0.07	0.31	0.07	0.30	0.08	0.30	0.08	0.30	0.08	0.29	0.09	0.29	0.09	0.29
Canada	1.66	18.42	1.66	17.58	1.65	18.28	1.76	18.25	2.03	17.63	2.05	17.62	2.35	17.41
Croatia	0.09	0.68	0.08	0.68	0.09	0.68	0.09	0.68	0.09	0.93	0.08	0.67	0.09	0.67
Czech Rep.	0.19	0.48	0.19	0.47	0.20	0.46	0.20	1.23	0.21	0.71	0.23	0.45	0.23	0.75
Denmark	0.36	1.40	0.39	0.92	0.39	0.92	0.39	2.22	0.39	0.90	0.41	0.90	0.41	0.91
Estonia	0.03	0.35	0.04	0.62	0.04	0.35	0.05	0.35	0.05	0.35	0.06	0.35	0.06	0.35
France	5.12	9.41	5.30	6.53	5.68	7.92	6.04	6.69	6.33	7.32	6.53	6.29	6.66	8.54
Germany	3.91	5.13	4.19	4.99	4.25	5.03	4.43	5.04	4.60	4.82	4.76	4.87	5.00	4.89
Greece	0.53	2.00	0.49	1.50	0.49	1.80	0.51	1.99	0.55	1.71	0.57	2.04	0.56	1.44
Hungary	0.11	0.42	0.11	0.68	0.11	0.41	0.12	0.41	0.13	0.40	0.15	0.40	0.16	0.40
Italy	2.71	5.78	2.63	5.36	2.72	5.96	2.63	5.54	2.53	5.14	2.85	5.55	2.91	4.41
Latvia	0.02	0.15	0.02	0.15	0.03	0.15	0.03	0.15	0.03	0.14	0.05	0.14	0.06	0.14
Lithuania	0.03	0.19	0.03	0.19	0.03	0.19	0.04	0.18	0.06	0.18	0.07	0.18	0.09	0.18
Luxembourg	0.02	0.06	0.02	0.05	0.02	0.06	0.03	0.06	0.03	0.06	0.03	0.06	0.04	0.06
Montenegro													0.01	0.08
Netherlands	0.96	2.08	0.94	1.63	0.94	1.41	0.99	1.86	1.00	2.08	1.04	2.23	1.06	1.91
Norway	0.52	2.99	0.56	3.34	0.61	2.84	0.67	2.50	0.67	2.96	0.69	2.82	0.71	2.43
Poland	0.72	1.54	0.77	1.52	0.82	1.83	0.95	2.03	1.14	2.27	1.07	1.86	1.09	2.35
Portugal	1.57	0.60	1.66	0.57	1.56	0.57	1.63	0.57	1.75	0.55	1.61	0.55	1.77	0.84
Romania	0.18	0.84	0.18	0.82	0.21	0.83	0.24	0.82	0.28	1.34	0.30	1.21	0.40	1.39
Slovak Rep.	0.09	0.23	0.09	0.22	0.09	0.54	0.09	0.22	0.11	0.21	0.11	0.21	0.12	0.22
Slovenia	0.05	0.12	0.05	0.11	0.05	0.11	0.05	0.11	0.05	0.11	0.05	0.11	0.05	0.11
Spain	1.57	4.13	1.66	2.61	1.56	3.53	1.63	3.33	1.75	3.51	1.61	3.47	1.77	3.93
Turkey	1.24	4.25	1.33	4.71	1.46	6.58	1.54	5.23	1.60	6.30	1.85	6.82	1.96	6.02
UK	5.01	7.86	5.05	8.09	5.21	8.70	5.31	8.36	5.23	6.56	5.21	6.53	5.12	7.35
USA	72.77	29.29	71.99	35.27	71.21	29.73	69.99	30.27	68.82	31.97	68.03	32.79	66.74	31.30
NATO-Europe	25.57	52.29	26.35	47.15	27.14	51.99	28.26	51.47	29.15	50.40	29.92	49.59	30.91	51.29
NATO- North America	74.43	47.71	73.65	52.85	72.86	48.01	71.74	48.53	70.85	49.60	70.08	50.41	69.09	48.71

Table 4. Wilcoxon signed rank correlations of ME/NATO ME and alternative average benefit shares.

	Sample size	Positive rank sum average share 1	Positive rank sum average share 2	Positive rank sum average share 3
2011	27	41 (0.00)***	54 (0.00)***	42 (0.00)***
2012	27	43 (0.00)***	57 (0.00)***	47 (0.00)***
2013	27	45 (0.00)***	45 (0.00)***	44 (0.00)***
2014	27	57 (0.00)***	76 (0.00)***	44 (0.00)***
2015	27	63 (0.00)***	46 (0.00)***	47 (0.00)***
2016	27	63 (0.00)***	61 (0.00)***	55 (0.00)***
2017	28	68 (0.00)***	56 (0.00)***	52 (0.00)***

*indicates p < 0.1, ** indicates p < 0.05, and *** indicates p < 0.01. P-values are in parentheses.

Average Share 1: GDP share, POP share, and exposed border share.

Average Share 2: GDP share, POP share, exposed border share, and transnational attacks share by venue.

Average Share 3: GDP share, POP share, exposed border share, and transnational attacks against targeted country’s interest share.

Table 5. Spearman rank correlation between security burden (SE/GDP) and GDP.

	${\rho }_{12}^a$	${\rho }_{12.3}^b$	${\rho }_{12.34}^c$
2011	0.514 (0.007)***	0.450 (0.018)**	0.461 (0.001)***
2012	0.498 (0.009)***	0.452 (0.020)**	0.447 (0.001)***
2013	0.480 (0.012)**	0.452 (0.020)**	0.427 (0.001)***
2014	0.480 (0.012)**	0.461 (0.018)**	0.430 (0.001)***
2015	0.510 (0.007)***	0.464 (0.017)**	0.438 (0.001)***
2016	0.455 (0.018)**	0.426 (0.030)**	0.388 (0.004)***
2017	0.424 (0.025)**	0.424 (0.027)**	0.356 (0.008)***

*indicates p < 0.1, ** indicates p < 0.05, and *** indicates p < 0.01. P-values are in parentheses.

Variables: 1 = SE/GDP; 2 = GDP; 3 = GDP/POP; 4 = exposed borders.

${ }^a$Simple rank correlation coefficient.

${ }^b$Partial rank correlation coefficient with GDP/POP held constant.

${ }^c$Partial rank correlation coefficient with GDP/POP and Exposed Borders held constant.

Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). 2019. “SIPRI Extended Military Expenditure Database.” Accessed 20 May 2019. http://www.sipri.org/databases/milex

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