The Impact of Peacekeeping on Post-Deployment Earnings for Swedish Veterans

Figures & data

Figure 1. Number of deployments in the sample, by deployment year, and the distribution of deployments across geographical locations. The sample consists of 11,279 former conscripts who underwent enlistment testing (and subsequently initiated their conscription service) in Sweden during 1990–2010 and who were deployed to an international peace mission (for the first time) at some point during 1993–2010.

Figure 2. Observed annual earnings for the veterans and their potential controls from the same birth-cohort. Average annual earnings in 100s of SEK, in 2019 prices, for veterans deployed for the first time 1993–2010, and a comparison group of non-veterans matched by birth-cohort and calendar year of observation only. Year 0 refers to the calendar year when a veteran was deployed for the first time. 100 SEK is approximately $10, £8 or €10.

Table 1. Descriptive averages.

	Veterans	All potential controls	Matched comparisons	Std.Diff.
Cog. ability (1–4)	0.19	0.29	0.20	−0.01
Cog. ability (5)	0.25	0.24	0.25	0.01
Cog. ability (6–7)	0.41	0.35	0.42	0.00
Cog. ability (8–9)	0.14	0.13	0.14	0.01
Psy. ability (1–4)	0.07	0.22	0.08	−0.03
Psy. ability (5)	0.16	0.25	0.16	−0.01
Psy. ability (6–7)	0.56	0.43	0.56	0.01
Psy. ability (8–9)	0.20	0.09	0.19	0.02
Med. test = A	0.81	0.64	0.80	0.02
Female	0.04	0.02	0.03	0.07
Foreign	0.04	0.06	0.04	0.02
Primary-school	0.05	0.08	0.03	0.06
Parent high educ.	0.48	0.43	0.49	0.00
Parents low educ.	0.06	0.08	0.06	0.01
Married	0.00	0.01	0.00	−0.01
Metro. area	0.28	0.31	0.28	0.00
Student (uni.) (t = −1)	0.11	0.20	0.11	−0.01
Student (uni.) (t = −2)	0.10	0.16	0.10	0.00
Student (uni.) (t = −3)	0.08	0.12	0.08	0.01
Student (oth.) (t = −1)	0.17	0.18	0.16	0.04
Student (oth.) (t = −2)	0.35	0.34	0.34	0.02
Student (oth.) (t = −3)	0.51	0.50	0.51	0.00
Unemp. ben. (t = −1)	0.17	0.19	0.17	0.00
Unemp. ben. (t = −2)	0.13	0.16	0.13	0.00
Unemp. ben. (t = −3)	0.09	0.13	0.09	0.00
Social aid. (t = −1)	0.04	0.06	0.04	0.03
Social aid. (t = −2)	0.05	0.06	0.04	0.03
Social aid. (t = −3)	0.04	0.06	0.04	0.03
Sick. ben. (t = −1)	0.03	0.04	0.03	0.01
Sick. ben. (t = −2)	0.03	0.04	0.03	0.01
Sick. ben. (t = −3)	0.04	0.05	0.04	0.00
Parental. (t = −1)	0.02	0.05	0.02	−0.01
Parental. (t = −2)	0.01	0.04	0.01	−0.01
Parental. (t = −3)	0.01	0.03	0.01	0.00
Age at deployment	23.71	23.71	23.71	0.00
Observations	11 279	4 518 789	356 045

Notes: Descriptive averages for veterans deployed for the first time during 1993-2010; a comparison group of non-veterans matched by birth-cohort and calendar year of observation only; and a matched comparison group of non-veterans. Standardised differences refer to the difference in means between the veterans and the non-veterans in the matched comparison group, expressed in units of the pooled standard deviation. Variable definitions are found in Table A1, in the Appendix.

Figure 3. Observed annual earnings for veterans and the matched comparison group of non-veterans. Average annual earnings in 100s of SEK in 2019 prices for veterans deployed for the first time 1993-2010 and the matched comparison group of non-veterans. Year 0 refers to the calendar year when a veteran was deployed for the first time. 100 SEK is approximately $10, £8 or €10.

Figure 4. Impact of deployment on average annual earnings. Matched difference-in-differences estimates of the average treatment effect from first-time deployment 1993–2010 on veterans’ annual earnings (100s of SEK in 2019 prices) for up to nine years after deployment. Error bars represent 95% confidence intervals. Year 0 refers to the calendar year when a veteran was deployed for the first time. Baseline year is year − 2. 100 SEK is approximately $10, £8 or €10.

Figure 5. Impact of deployment on average annual earnings, by military mission. Matched difference-in-differences estimates of the average treatment effect from first-time deployment to various missions on veterans’ annual earnings (100s of SEK in 2019 prices) for up to nine years after deployment. Estimates for veterans from Bosnia (1992–1999), Kosovo (1999–2010) and Afghanistan (2002–2010). Error bars represent 95% confidence intervals. Year 0 refers to the calendar year when a veteran was deployed for the first time. The baseline year is year − 2. 100 SEK is approximately $10, £8 or €10.

Figure 6. Impact of deployment on average annual earnings, by groupings of deployment years. Matched difference-in-differences estimates of the average treatment effect from first-time deployment on veterans’ annual earnings (100s of SEK in 2019 prices) for up to nine years after deployment. Error bars represent 95% confidence intervals. Year 0 refers to the calendar year when a veteran was deployed for the first time. The baseline year is year − 2. 100 SEK is approximately $10, £8 or €10.

Figure 7. Impact of deployment on average annual earnings, by cognitive ability. Matched difference-in-differences estimates of the average treatment effect from first-time deployment on veterans’ annual earnings (100s of SEK in 2019 prices) for up to nine years after deployment. Average cognitive ability represents a stanine score of 5. Error bars represent 95% confidence intervals. Year 0 refers to the calendar year when a veteran was deployed for the first time. The baseline year is year − 2. 100 SEK is approximately $10, £8 or €10.

Figure 8. Impact of deployment on average annual earnings, by parents’ education level. Matched difference-in-differences estimates of the average treatment effect from first-time deployment on veterans’ annual earnings (100s of SEK in 2019 prices) for up to nine years after deployment. Individuals with at least one parent with postsecondary education (three years or longer) vs. individuals whose parents had no postsecondary education (three years or longer). Error bars represent 95% confidence intervals. Year 0 refers to the calendar year when a veteran was deployed for the first time. The baseline year is year − 2. 100 SEK is approximately $10, £8 or €10.

Table A1. Definitions of variables.

Variable	Description
Cog. ability (several categories)	General cognitive ability measured on the military enlistment test day. Discrete Stanine units (1–9), where 9 is the highest score. Weighted overall test score (g-factor) from four subtests of verbal, spatial, logic inductive and technical ability. Dummies for whether the individual scored 1–4; 5; 6–7; or 8–9.
Psych. ability (several categories)	Psychological assessment of the individual’s ability to fulfill the psychological requirements of military service and armed combat, based on a personal interview conducted by a psychologist on the military enlistment test day. Discrete Stanine units (1–9), where 9 is the highest score. Dummies for whether the individual scored 1–4; 5; 6–7; or 8–9.
Med. test = A	Dummy for whether the individual fulfilled the military medical requirements for military training in a combat position with the highest demands on physical mobility. Measured on enlistment test day.
Female	Dummy for whether the individual is female.
Foreign	Dummy for whether the individual was born outside Sweden and/or has two parents born outside Sweden.
Primary-school	Dummy for whether the individual’s highest completed education is primary-school. Measured 1 year before deployment.
Parent high educ.	Dummy for whether the individual has at least one parent with postsecondary education, three years or longer. Measured 1 year before deployment.
Parents low educ.	Dummy for whether both parent’s highest education is primary school or below. Measured 1 year before deployment.
Married	Dummy for whether the individual is married. Measured 1 year before deployment.
Metro. area	Dummy for whether the individual resid in a metropolitan area, as defined by the Swedish Association of Local Authorities and Regions (SKR). Measured 1 year before deployment.
Parental leave	Dummy for whether the individual received any parental leave benefits. Measured 1, 2 and 3 years before deployment.
Student (uni.)	Dummy for whether the individual was registered at a university and received student aid. Measured 1, 2 and 3 years before deployment.
Student (oth.)	Dummy for whether the individual received student aid but was not registered at a university. Measured 1, 2 and 3 years before deployment.
Unemp. ben.	Dummy for whether the individual received any unemployment benefits or payments from active labour market training programmes. Measured 1, 2 and 3 years before deployment.
Social aid	Dummy for whether the individual’s household received any social aid payments. Measured 1, 2 and 3 years before deployment.
Sick. ben.	Dummy for whether the individual received any benefits associated with sickness absence, occupational injury or rehabilitation. Measured 1, 2 and 3 years before deployment.

Table A2. Logit model estimation of the probability of deployment to a peacekeeping mission 1993–2010, conditional on observed baseline characteristics.

	Est.	S.E
Cog. ability (1–4)	−0.269	(0.0290)
Cog. ability (6–7)	0.0955	(0.0242)
Cog. ability (8–9)	0.0126	(0.0328)
Psy. ability (1–4)	−0.544	(0.0423)
Psy. ability (6–7)	0.626	(0.0266)
Psy. ability (8–9)	1.108	(0.0324)
Med. test = A	0.657	(0.0244)
Female	0.893	(0.0476)
Foreign	−0.0425	(0.0489)
Primary-school	−1.289	(0.0472)
Parent high educ.	0.106	(0.0205)
Parents low educ.	−0.164	(0.0408)
Married	−1.592	(0.278)
Metro. area	−0.266	(0.0216)
Stud. (uni.) (t = −1)	−1.022	(0.0390)
Stud. (uni.) (t = −2)	−0.173	(0.0471)
Stud. (uni.) (t = −3)	−0.420	(0.0459)
Stud. (oth.) (t = −1)	−0.955	(0.0322)
Stud. (oth.) (t = −2)	−0.282	(0.0307)
Stud. (oth.) (t = −3)	0.0380	(0.0297)
Unemp. ben. (t = −1)	0.0402	(0.0309)
Unemp. ben. (t = −2)	−0.103	(0.0369)
Unemp. ben. (t = −3)	−0.294	(0.0384)
Social aid. (t = −1)	0.0365	(0.0547)
Social aid. (t = −2)	0.123	(0.0560)
Social aid. (t = −3)	0.0232	(0.0538)
Sick. ben. (t = −1)	−0.333	(0.0594)
Sick. ben. (t = −2)	−0.110	(0.0563)
Sick. ben. (t = −3)	0.167	(0.0519)
Parental. (t = −1)	−1.342	(0.0963)
Parental. (t = −2)	−0.543	(0.118)
Parental. (t = −3)	0.149	(0.115)
Age at deployment	−0.202	(0.00426)
Constant	−1.239	(0.121)
Observations	4747880

Notes: Output from a logit regression on pooled cross-sections of annual data for the full sample of treated and untreated individuals. The dependent variable is 1 if an individual was deployed for the first time, and 0 otherwise. Subsequent observations on first-time veterans are censored. The coefficients represent the contribution of each listed covariate to the log odds that an individual is deployed (year dummies are included, but not shown). The predictions from this model are used to construct the propensity-score used for matching. Standard errors in parentheses. Variable definitions are found in Table 2.

Table A3. The impact of deployment on annual earnings five and nine years after deployment using different matching algorithms and baseline year.

Outcome	Nearest neighbour (1)	Nearest neighbour (4)	Nearest neighbour (10)	Nearest neighbour (4) w/alt. baseline
Annual earnings (t = 5)	11.6	8.8	7.2	13.3
	(18.5)	(16.8)	(16.2)	(16.4)
	[19.9]	[18.1]	[17.2]	[17.7]
Annual earnings (t = 9)	36.1	31.8	20.8	36.4
	(21.7)	(19.5)	(18.6)	(19.0)
	[21.7]	[20.3]	[19.2]	[19.7]

Notes: Matched difference-in-differences estimates of the ATT on annual earnings (100s of Swedish SEK) five and nine years after deployment using alternative matching algorithms and baseline year for calculating matched Diff-in-Diff outcomes. Alternative matching algorithms include the following: nearest neighbour matching using 1 nearest neighbour; nearest neighbour matching using 4 nearest neighbours (the preferred matching algorithm); and nearest neighbour matching using 10 nearest neighbours. The alternative baseline is the average earnings over the second and third years that came before deployment (the preferred baseline is the earnings in the second year before deployment). Standard errors in parentheses. Bootstrapped standard errors based on 500 replications are reported in brackets. 100 SEK is approximately $10, £8 or €10.

Figure A1. Distributions of the propensity-scores before and after matching. Kernel density estimates of the distribution of the propensity-score before and after matching. Treated individuals are veterans deployed for the first time 1993–2010.

Figure A2. Impact of deployment on average annual earnings, by number of deployments. Matched difference-in-differences estimates of the average treatment effect from first-time deployment on veterans’ annual earnings (100s of SEK in 2019 prices) for up to nine years after deployment. Error bars represent 95% confidence intervals. Year 0 refers to the calendar year when a veteran was deployed for the first time. The baseline year is year − 2. 100 SEK is approximately $10, £8 or €10.