A quantile-based analysis of risk-return dynamics in the South African equity market

ABSTRACT

This paper employs quantile autoregression to investigate the influence of ‘market size’ and ‘industry’ effects on the South African equity market volatility response to return shocks. It is now well documented that equity market volatility exhibits asymmetric response to positive and negative return shocks. This paper provides empirical evidence which shows that the South African equity market asymmetric volatility response is significantly a large company phenomenon and with the exception of the Resources 10 and Financials 15 Indices, there is generally no volatility asymmetric response heterogeneity at the sector level. These results have important implications for investors and fund managers in relation to portfolio construction, risk management and optimal equity risk premium determination.

KEYWORDS:

• asymmetric volatility
• quantile autoregression
• equity market variance
• return shocks1. Introduction

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.