The politics and impact of party leader visits in Australia

Figures & data

Table 1. Variables, definitions, means.

		Means
Variables	Coding	2013	2022
Vote swing	Percent two party preferred vote swing to Coalition	3.69	−3.56
Total party leader visits	Number	0.81	1.86
Liberal leader visits	Number	0.41	1.00
Labor leader visits	Number	0.41	0.87
Marginality	Percent two party preferred	2.47	2.53
Media consumption	Zero to 10 scale
Urbanization
Outer metropolitan	1 = yes, 0 = no	0.32	0.28
Provincial	1 = yes, 0 = no	0.14	0.17
Rural	1 = yes, 0 = no	0.27	0.25
Gender	Percent females	50.61	49.74
Educational qualifications	Certificate III or higher	46.42	46.46
Language other than English	Percent	20.08	19.95
Home owner	Percent	69.08	68.06
(N)		(150)	(151)

See text for definitions of variables.

Table 2. Leader visits, 2013 and 2022.

	2013		2022
Electorates	Rudd	Abbott	Morrison	Albanese
Not visited	107	102	85	92
Visited, of which:
One	30	38	28	24
Two	10	8	14	17
Three	2	1	11	6
Four	0	1	7	8
Five	1	0	2	1
Six	0	0	4	3
(At least one visit)	(43)	(48)	(66)	(59)

Number of visits by each party leader for each of the House of Representatives electorates (150 in 2013, 151 in 2022).

Table 3. Explaining leader visits, 2013 and 2022.

	2013	2022
	Est	Est
Marginality	-.058**	-.144**
	(.014)	(.034)
Media consumption	.718	.216
	(.560)	(1.105)
Urbanization (inner metro)
Outer metro	-.513**	−1.597**
	(.260)	(.621)
Provincial	.139	-.732
	(.387)	(.883)
Rural	-.702*	−1.333
	(.413)	(.945)
Gender (female)	-.030	-.043
	(.138)	(.038)
Language other than English	-.007	-.006
	(.008)	(.018)
Education qualifications	-.002	.002
	(.017)	(.039)
Home owner	-.036**	.025
	(.015)	(.024)
Constant	4.138	4.067
	(6.129)	(3.902)
Adj R-sq	.213	.135
(N)	(150)	(151)

** p<.05, * p<.10. Figures are partial regression coefficients (Est) and standard errors (in parentheses) predicting the number of leader visits in an electorate.

Table 4. Incumbency and leader visits, 2013 and 2022.

	Percent of seats visited
	Coalition	Labor	(Significance)
2013
Rudd	21	36	(p = .045)
Abbott	25	39	(p = .069)
2022
Morrison	43	47	(p = .623)
Albanese	42	36	(p = .463)

Percent of leader visits to each electorate by party holding the electorate (150 in 2013, 151 in 2022).

Table 5. Leader visits and the vote swing.

	2013		2022
	Est (SE)	Est (SE)	Est (SE)	Est (SE)
Visits by Liberal leader	1.000**	–	-.043	–
	(.451)		(.226)
Visits by Labor leader	–	.788**	–	-.309
		(.389)		(.219)
Marginality	.007	.002	.074	.063
	(.046)	(.046)	(.056)	(.052)
Media	−2.215	−2.479	2.968*	2.903*
	(1.749)	(1.765)	(1.677)	(1.663)
Urbanization (inner metro)
Outer metro	.788	.631	1.176	1.056
	(.823)	(.816)	(.970)	(.941)
Provincial	.592	.212	4.025**	3.910**
	(1.209)	(1.215)	(1.339)	(1.331)
Rural	1.452	.862	3.162**	3.021**
	(1.320)	(1.292)	(1.443)	(1.428)
Gender	.668	.702	.091	.095
	(.431)	(.433)	(.059)	(.058)
Language other than English	.071	.004	.089**	.087**
	(.056)	(.024)	(.027)	(.027)
Educational qualifications	.037	.035	-.213**	-.208**
	(.052)	(.052)	(.059)	(.058)
Home owner	-.006	-.003	-.037	-.030
	(.048)	(.048)	(.037)	(.037)
Constant	−27.383	−28.046	−7.416	−7.704
	(19.119)	(19.190)	(5.996)	(5.893)
Adj R-sq	.073	.067	.284	.294
(N)	(150)	(150)	(151)	(151)

** p<.05, * p<.10. Figures are partial regression coefficients (Est) and standard errors (in parentheses) predicting the percent swing to the Coalition in an electorate.