Climate and Creativity: Cold and Heat Trigger Invention and Innovation in Richer Populations

Figures & data

FIGURE 1 The latitudinal variation of creative culture across 155 countries (based on five cross-national measures of invention and innovation detailed in Electronic Supplement 1). Midrange distance from the equator accounts for 40% of the variation in creativity (ΔR² = .381, b = .439, n = 125, p < .001 for the northern hemisphere; ΔR² = .345, b = .486, n = 109, p < .001 for the eastern hemisphere; ΔR² = .293, b = .777, n = 30, p < .001 for the southern hemisphere; ΔR² = .558, b = .542, n = 46, p < .001 for the western hemisphere). The curvilinear tendency toward the equator accounts for an additional 6% of the variation in creativity (ΔR² = .067, b = .296, p < .001 for the northern hemisphere; ΔR² = .057, b = .262, p < .01 for the eastern hemisphere; ΔR² = .076, b = .361, p < .10 for the southern hemisphere; ΔR² = .072, b = .250, p < .01 for the western hemisphere).

FIGURE 2 The ecotheory of creativity. The central hypotheses are that wealth resources strengthen the direct positive influence of stressful thermal demands of cold and heat on creative culture (H1), the direct negative influence of stressful thermal demands on parasitic diseases (H2a), and the parasite-mediated positive influence of stressful thermal demands on creative culture (indirect 2a-2b path of H2).

TABLE 1 Correlations among the predictors, the control variables, and the dependent variable of creative culture.^a

Variables	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
1. Cold demands
2. Heat demands	−.582^b
3. Wealth resources	.406	−.312
4. Non-zoonotic diseases	−.599	.384	−.682
5. Zoonotic diseases	.045^c	.061^c	−.203^d	.495
6. Intellectualization	.600	−.421	.715	−.670	.008^c
7. Industrialization	.475	−.346	.848	−.764	−.248^d	.790
8. Urbanization	.435	−.352	.767	−.583	−.165^d	.660	.828
9. Creative culture	.547	−.430	.801	−.609	−.116^c	.717	.697	.665

^an = 155.

^bp’s < .001 unless a superscript indicates otherwise.

^cp > .15.

^dp < .05.

TABLE 2 Effects of demands of climatic cold and heat on the prevalence of creative culture at five levels of wealth resources, based on the regression equation in the bottom-most section (155 countries). There is simultaneous support for the direct path of H1 in Figure 2 (sections A and B), and for the parasite-mediated 2a-2b path of H2 in Figure 2 (sections C and D)

A. Direct effects of cold demands on creative culture at five percentiles of wealth resources:
	Wealth percentiles	b	S.E.	95%-confidence interval
	10th	−.028	.116	−.257	.201
A	25th	.039	.086	−.130	.209
	50th	.139	.065	.011	.266
	75th	.228	.084	.061	.395
	90th	.290	.111	.070	.510
B. Direct effects of heat demands on creative culture at five percentiles of wealth resources:
	Wealth percentiles	b	S.E.	95%-confidence interval
	10th	−.148	.068	−.283	−.012
B	25th	−.106	.051	−.207	−.005
	50th	−.045	.051	−.146	.055
	75th	.010	.075	−.139	.159
	90th	.048	.098	−.145	.241
C. Indirect effects of cold demands through non-zoonotic diseases on creative culture at five percentiles of wealth resources:
	Wealth percentiles	b	Boot S.E.	95%-confidence interval
	10th	−.156	.057	−.313	−.070
C	25th	−.087	.041	−.182	−.017
	50th	.020	.042	−.053	.109
	75th	.121	.060	.019	.256
	90th	.193	.084	.064	.401
D. Indirect effects of heat demands through non-zoonotic diseases on creative culture at five percentiles of wealth resources:
	Wealth percentiles	b	Boot S.E.	95%-confidence interval
	10th	.039	.033	−.013	.114
D	25th	.003	.013	−.018	.038
	50th	.005	.013	−.012	.040
	75th	.063	.039	.008	.169
	90th	.133	.068	.033	.308
E. Indirect effects of cold demands through zoonotic diseases on creative culture at five percentiles of wealth resources:
	Wealth percentiles	b	Boot S.E.	95%-confidence interval
	10th	−.005	.026	−.081	.027
E	25th	−.002	.027	−.058	.050
	50th	.009	.033	−.052	.077
	75th	.028	.053	−.089	.122
	90th	.045	.078	−.136	.182
F. Indirect effects of heat demands through zoonotic diseases on creative culture at five percentiles of wealth resources:
	Wealth percentiles	b	Boot S.E.	95%-confidence interval
	10th	.003	.014	−.014	.054
F	25th	−.000	.005	−.013	.007
	50th	.004	.012	−.019	.035
	75th	.015	.029	−.033	.086
	90th	.028	.048	−.061	.137
Conditional process analysis
Predictors	b	S.E.	p	95%-confidence interval
Cold demands	.136	.065	.037	.008	.264
Heat demands	−.047	.050	.354	−.146	.053
Wealth resources	.508	.078	< .001	.352	.663
Non-zoonotic diseases	−.044	.098	.653	−.237	.149
Zoonotic diseases	.017	.061	.778	−.104	.139
Cold x Wealth	.113	.067	.091	−.018	.243
Heat x Wealth	.069	.048	.155	−.026	.165
Non-zoonotic x Wealth	−.329	.066	< .001	−.460	−.199
Zoonotic x Wealth	.029	.052	.579	−.073	.131
Intellectualization	.021	.006	< .001	.009	.033
Industrialization	.003	.004	.444	−.004	.010
Urbanization	.000	.003	.909	−.006	.006
Total effect^a	R^2 = .811, F (12, 142) = 5.652, p < .001

^aThere is no problematic multicollinearity (VIFs < 7.176), and there are no outliers (Cook’s Ds < .175).

FIGURE 3 Visualization of the effects of demands of climatic cold and heat on creative culture. Shown are 95%-confidence intervals of the regression coefficients for thermal demands predicting creative culture at five percentiles of wealth resources. Results are broken down for direct effects of cold (A) and heat (B), and parasite-mediated effects of cold (C) and heat (D).

FIGURE 4 Cross-validition of the ecotheory of creativity. The explanatory power of the theory is apparent from the correspondence between predicted and measured creativity in 51 southern hemisphere countries (r = .726, p < .001).