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ABSTRACT
Extreme heat is the leading weather-related cause of mortality in the United States, but there is little evidence about how this climate hazard affects residents of different housing types. In this study, we examine whether Californians living in subsidized housing are more vulnerable to extreme heat than those living in unsubsidized housing. We create a tract-level data set combining housing characteristics, downscaled climate projections, and an index of adaptive capacity and sensitivity to heat. We analyze exposure and vulnerability to heat by housing type and location. We find that subsidized housing is disproportionately located in the hottest tracts that simultaneously also have the most sensitive populations and barriers to adaptation (high-high tracts). Whereas 8% of California’s housing units are in high-high tracts, these tracts contain 16% of public housing units, 14% of Low-Income Housing Tax Credit units, and 10% of Section 8 Housing Choice Vouchers. Our findings indicate the need for targeted housing and land-use policy interventions to reduce heat vulnerability.
Disclosure Statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.
Notes
1. RCP refers to Representative Concentration Pathways, which are scenarios about the future emissions, concentrations, and land-use change, that serve as inputs to climate models (Van Vuuren et al., Citation2011). The four RCPs are based on radiative forcing in 2100, referring to 2.6, 4.5, 6, and 8.5 W/m2 (Van Vuuren et al., Citation2011). We can broadly think of RCP 2.6 as a low emissions scenario, RCPs 4.5 and 6 as intermediate emissions scenarios, and RCP 8.5 as a high or business-as-usual scenario (IPCC, Citation2014; Van Vuuren et al., Citation2011).
2. Additionally, the neighborhood characteristics of two adjacent census tract edges may be more similar than are distant locations within the same tract.
3. Other project-based programs are Section 8 moderate rehabilitation, Section 8 project-based rental assistance, rent supplement, rental assistance payment, Section 236, Section 202 for the elderly, and Section 811 for persons with disabilities.
4. Although these extreme heat days are calculated based on 98th percentile temperatures for the specific location, they are highly correlated with extreme heat days calculated based on a temperature threshold (e.g., 90°F).
5. More broadly, across the United States, differences across housing types are noticeable in terms of central AC and insulation, but not for general prevalence of AC. The national RECS estimates on AC are similar to those from the national American Housing Survey, which give us confidence about using the American Housing Survey estimates for more detailed housing types in California.
6. The community climate resiliency points include a climate adaptation assessment matrix with risks including heat waves, wildfires, and sea level rise. The matrix for extreme heat asks the proposers to characterize the degree to which they are planting trees, providing shade, enhancing insultation, installing cool roofs, reducing electricity demand and cooling costs, and adding permeable land cover. Proposers must also assess the degree to which they replace natural land cover with impervious surfaces (California Strategic Growth Council, Citation2019).
7. Given Goetz and Chapple’s (Citation2010) observation that mobility decisions are often less a result of preferences than of problem-solving in an environment with time constraints and limited housing availability, it seems likely that extreme heat may be a minor consideration for voucher households.
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Notes on contributors
C. J. Gabbe
C. J. Gabbe is an assistant professor in the Department of Environmental Studies and Sciences at Santa Clara University. His research focuses on land use planning, housing policy, and environmental justice.
Gregory Pierce
Gregory Pierce is Associate Director of the UCLA Luskin Center for Innovation and a faculty member in the Urban Planning Department at UCLA. His research examines how environmental policy design affects social justice inequities, and how communities strategize and build resilience to overcome these inequities.