Influences of Islamist Radicalization: A Configurational Analysis of Balkan Foreign Fighters in Syria

Figures & data

Table 1. Functions of radical influencers.

Type of function	Empirical manifestation
Ideological influence	Sermons and lectures
Social influence on individual and group socialization	Online and offline discussions with followers, guidance for everyday life concerning marriage, health, family, education, etc.
Logistical and financial support	Securing travel arrangements, providing foreign fighters with “recommendation letters”
Enacting role as spiritual authority	Performing “spiritual healing” sessions

Figure 1. Summary of research process.

Table 2. Data table, as calibrated and analyzed in the mvQCA.

Set label	Abbr.	Set values
Place of origin	ORIGIN	0 - outside Balkans (diaspora)
		1 - Bosnia and Herzegovina
		2 - Serbia
		3 - Montenegro
Role in conflict participation	ROLE	1 - fighter
		2 - wife
		3 - child
		4 - recruiter
Syria-based group affiliation	GROUP	0 - none
		1 - Islamic State (IS)
		2 - al Nusra (AN)
		3 - both IS and AN
Connection to influencers	INF	0 - none/not evidenced
		1 - Nusret I. (I) cluster
		2 - Bilal B. (B) cluster
		3 - diaspora
		4 - el-Furkan mosque
Relationship with Balkan radical milieu	RADMIL	0 - none/not evidenced
		1 - positive active
		2 - positive passive
Travelled to Syrian conflict zone (outcome)	TRAVEL	1 - yes

Table 3. Unabridged solution table for mvQCA.

	Conjunction	Cases covered	Cases uniquely covered
1	ORIGIN[0]∗ROLE[1]∗INF[3]∗RADMIL[1]	13(4.9%)	13(4.9%)
2	ORIGIN[1]∗ROLE[1]∗GROUP[0]∗INF[0]	22(8.2%)	1(0.4%)
3	ORIGIN[1]∗ROLE[1]∗GROUP[1]∗INF[0]	47(17.5%)	4(1.5%)
4	ORIGIN[1]∗ROLE[1]∗INF[0]∗RADMIL[0]	17(6.3%)	6(2.2%)
5	ORIGIN[1]∗ROLE[1]∗INF[0]∗RADMIL[1]	61(22.8%)	8(3.0%)
6	ORIGIN[1]∗ROLE[1]∗INF[2]∗RADMIL[1]	37(13.8%)	37(13.8%)
7	ORIGIN[1]∗ROLE[2]∗INF[0]∗RADMIL[2]	20(7.5%)	20(7.5%)
8	ORIGIN[1]∗ROLE[2]∗INF[2]∗RADMIL[2]	10(3.7%)	10(3.7%)
9	ROLE[1]∗GROUP[1]∗INF[0]∗RADMIL[1]	49(18.3%)	14(5.2%)
10	ORIGIN[0]∗ROLE[1]∗GROUP[1]∗INF[0]∗RADMIL[0]	3(1.1%)	3(1.1%)
11	ORIGIN[0]∗ROLE[1]∗GROUP[1]∗INF[1]∗RADMIL[1]	1(0.4%)	1(0.4%)
12	ORIGIN[0]∗ROLE[1]∗GROUP[1]∗INF[2]∗RADMIL[1]	1(0.4%)	1(0.4%)
13	ORIGIN[0]∗ROLE[1]∗GROUP[1]∗INF[3]∗RADMIL[2]	1(0.4%)	1(0.4%)
14	ORIGIN[0]∗ROLE[2]∗GROUP[1]∗INF[3]∗RADMIL[1]	1(0.4%)	1(0.4%)
15	ORIGIN[0]∗ROLE[2]∗GROUP[1]∗INF[3]∗RADMIL[2]	2(0.7%)	2(0.7%)
16	ORIGIN[0]∗ROLE[3]∗GROUP[1]∗INF[3]∗RADMIL[2]	1(0.4%)	1(0.4%)
17	ORIGIN[0]∗ROLE[4]∗GROUP[1]∗INF[2]∗RADMIL[1]	1(0.4%)	1(0.4%)
18	ORIGIN[1]∗ROLE[1]∗GROUP[0]∗INF[1]∗RADMIL[0]	1(0.4%)	1(0.4%)
19	ORIGIN[1]∗ROLE[1]∗GROUP[1]∗INF[1]∗RADMIL[1]	14(5.2%)	14(5.2%)
20	ORIGIN[1]∗ROLE[1]∗GROUP[1]∗INF[2]∗RADMIL[2]	2(0.7%)	2(0.7%)
21	ORIGIN[1]∗ROLE[1]∗GROUP[2]∗INF[1]∗RADMIL[1]	6(2.2%)	6(2.2%)
22	ORIGIN[1]∗ROLE[1]∗GROUP[3]∗INF[1]∗RADMIL[1]	3(1.1%)	3(1.1%)
23	ORIGIN[1]∗ROLE[2]∗GROUP[1]∗INF[0]∗RADMIL[1]	3(1.1%)	3(1.1%)
24	ORIGIN[1]∗ROLE[2]∗GROUP[1]∗INF[1]∗RADMIL[1]	2(0.7%)	2(0.7%)
25	ORIGIN[1]∗ROLE[2]∗GROUP[1]∗INF[1]∗RADMIL[2]	5(1.9%)	5(1.9%)
26	ORIGIN[1]∗ROLE[2]∗GROUP[1]∗INF[2]∗RADMIL[1]	2(0.7%)	2(0.7%)
27	ORIGIN[1]∗ROLE[2]∗GROUP[2]∗INF[0]∗RADMIL[1]	1(0.4%)	1(0.4%)
28	ORIGIN[1]∗ROLE[2]∗GROUP[2]∗INF[2]∗RADMIL[1]	1(0.4%)	1(0.4%)
29	ORIGIN[1]∗ROLE[2]∗GROUP[3]∗INF[1]∗RADMIL[2]	2(0.7%)	2(0.7%)
30	ORIGIN[1]∗ROLE[3]∗GROUP[0]∗INF[1]∗RADMIL[2]	1(0.4%)	1(0.4%)
31	ORIGIN[1]∗ROLE[3]∗GROUP[1]∗INF[0]∗RADMIL[1]	1(0.4%)	1(0.4%)
32	ORIGIN[1]∗ROLE[3]∗GROUP[1]∗INF[0]∗RADMIL[2]	3(1.1%)	3(1.1%)
33	ORIGIN[1]∗ROLE[3]∗GROUP[1]∗INF[2]∗RADMIL[1]	1(0.4%)	1(0.4%)
34	ORIGIN[1]∗ROLE[3]∗GROUP[1]∗INF[2]∗RADMIL[2]	4(1.5%)	4(1.5%)
35	ORIGIN[1]∗ROLE[3]∗GROUP[2]∗INF[2]∗RADMIL[1]	2(0.7%)	2(0.7%)
36	ORIGIN[1]∗ROLE[3]∗GROUP[2]∗INF[2]∗RADMIL[2]	3(1.1%)	3(1.1%)
37	ORIGIN[1]∗ROLE[3]∗GROUP[3]∗INF[1]∗RADMIL[2]	3(1.1%)	3(1.1%)
38	ORIGIN[1]∗ROLE[4]∗GROUP[0]∗INF[0]∗RADMIL[1]	1(0.4%)	1(0.4%)
39	ORIGIN[1]∗ROLE[4]∗GROUP[1]∗INF[2]∗RADMIL[1]	2(0.7%)	2(0.7%)
40	ORIGIN[1]∗ROLE[4]∗GROUP[2]∗INF[1]∗RADMIL[1]	2(0.7%)	2(0.7%)
41	ORIGIN[2]∗ROLE[1]∗GROUP[0]∗INF[0]∗RADMIL[1]	2(0.7%)	2(0.7%)
42	ORIGIN[2]∗ROLE[1]∗GROUP[1]∗INF[4]∗RADMIL[1]	1(0.4%)	1(0.4%)
43	ORIGIN[2]∗ROLE[1]∗GROUP[2]∗INF[0]∗RADMIL[1]	1(0.4%)	1(0.4%)
44	ORIGIN[2]∗ROLE[2]∗GROUP[1]∗INF[0]∗RADMIL[2]	1(0.4%)	1(0.4%)
45	ORIGIN[2]∗ROLE[2]∗GROUP[1]∗INF[4]∗RADMIL[2]	2(0.7%)	2(0.7%)
46	ORIGIN[2]∗ROLE[4]∗GROUP[1]∗INF[1]∗RADMIL[1]	1(0.4%)	1(0.4%)
47	ORIGIN[2]∗ROLE[4]∗GROUP[1]∗INF[4]∗RADMIL[1]	1(0.4%)	1(0.4%)
48	ORIGIN[3]∗ROLE[1]∗GROUP[1]∗INF[0]∗RADMIL[2]	1(0.4%)	1(0.4%)
49	ORIGIN[3]∗ROLE[1]∗GROUP[1]∗INF[1]∗RADMIL[1]	1(0.4%)	1(0.4%)
50	ORIGIN[3]∗ROLE[1]∗GROUP[1]∗INF[3]∗RADMIL[1]	1(0.4%)	1(0.4%)
51	ORIGIN[3]∗ROLE[2]∗GROUP[1]∗INF[0]∗RADMIL[2]	3(1.1%)	3(1.1%)

The rows shaded in dark grey are radical recruiters. The rows shaded in light grey are fighters unconnected to any influencer but with a positive actively relationship to the radical milieu.

Figure 2. Set relations from different origins of fighters, Islamic State (is) affiliation, connections to Nusret I. and Bilal B., and positive active (POSACT) relationship to the radical milieu.

Figure 3. A Heatmap showing the clustering of cases based on their connection (if any) to radical influencers and their relationship with the radical milieu. Bars within the cells show the proportions of fighters, women, children, and recruiters.

Figure 4. Set relations of foreign fighters, individuals with a positive active relationship to the radical milieu, individuals connected to imamovíc, and individuals connected to Bilal B. (i.e. in mvQCA denotation: ROLE[1]*INF[1]*INF[2]*RADMIL[1]).

Figure 5. Set relations of foreign fighters, individuals connected to Bilal B., individuals affiliated with Al-Nusra Front, and individuals affiliated with Islamic State (i.e. in mvQCA denotation: INF[2]*ROLE[1]*GROUP[2]*GROUP[1]).

Figure 6. Set relations of foreign fighters, individuals connected to Nusret I., individuals affiliated with JN, and individuals affiliated with is (i.e. in mvQCA denotation: INF[1]*ROLE[1]*GROUP[2]*GROUP[1]).

Table

	ORIGIN	ROLE	GROUP	INF	RADMIL	OUT	n
377	1	1	1	0	1	1	35
383	1	1	1	2	1	1	29
362	1	1	0	0	1	1	18
438	1	2	1	0	2	1	15
380	1	1	1	1	1	1	14
86	0	1	1	3	1	1	9
376	1	1	1	0	0	1	8
977	3	1	1	0	1	1	8
392	1	1	2	0	1	1	7
395	1	1	2	1	1	1	6
444	1	2	1	2	2	1	6
413	1	1	3	2	1	1	5
441	1	2	1	1	2	1	5
77	0	1	1	0	1	1	4
378	1	1	1	0	2	1	4
504	1	3	1	2	2	1	4
76	0	1	1	0	0	1	3
361	1	1	0	0	0	1	3
391	1	1	2	0	0	1	3
406	1	1	3	0	0	1	3
410	1	1	3	1	1	1	3
437	1	2	1	0	1	1	3
498	1	3	1	0	2	1	3
519	1	3	2	2	2	1	3
531	1	3	3	1	2	1	3
1038	3	2	1	0	2	1	3
71	0	1	0	3	1	1	2
147	0	2	1	3	2	1	2
384	1	1	1	2	2	1	2
398	1	1	2	2	1	1	2
423	1	2	0	0	2	1	2
429	1	2	0	2	2	1	2
440	1	2	1	1	1	1	2
443	1	2	1	2	1	1	2
453	1	2	2	0	2	1	2
471	1	2	3	1	2	1	2
518	1	3	2	2	1	1	2
563	1	4	1	2	1	1	2
575	1	4	2	1	1	1	2
662	2	1	0	0	1	1	2
677	2	1	1	0	1	1	2
750	2	2	1	4	2	1	2
80	0	1	1	1	1	1	1
83	0	1	1	2	1	1	1
87	0	1	1	3	2	1	1
101	0	1	2	3	1	1	1
116	0	1	3	3	1	1	1
146	0	2	1	3	1	1	1
207	0	3	1	3	2	1	1
263	0	4	1	2	1	1	1
363	1	1	0	0	2	1	1
364	1	1	0	1	0	1	1
368	1	1	0	2	1	1	1
407	1	1	3	0	1	1	1
452	1	2	2	0	1	1	1
458	1	2	2	2	1	1	1
1129 further truth table rows with no empirical manifestations

Table B1. Unabridged solution Table for mvQCA version 1.

	inclS	PRI	covS	covU
ORIGIN[0]*ROLE[1]*INF[3]*RADMIL[1]	1.000	1.000	0.049	0.049
ORIGIN[1]*ROLE[1]*GROUP[0]*INF[0]	1.000	1.000	0.082	0.004
ORIGIN[1]*ROLE[1]*GROUP[1]*INF[0]	1.000	1.000	0.175	0.015
ORIGIN[1]*ROLE[1]*INF[0]*RADMIL[0]	1.000	1.000	0.063	0.022
ORIGIN[1]*ROLE[1]*INF[0]*RADMIL[1]	1.000	1.000	0.228	0.030
ORIGIN[1]*ROLE[1]*INF[2]*RADMIL[1]	1.000	1.000	0.138	0.138
ORIGIN[1]*ROLE[2]*INF[0]*RADMIL[2]	1.000	1.000	0.075	0.075
ORIGIN[1]*ROLE[2]*INF[2]*RADMIL[2]	1.000	1.000	0.037	0.037
ROLE[1]*GROUP[1]*INF[0]*RADMIL[1]	1.000	1.000	0.183	0.052
ORIGIN[0]*ROLE[1]*GROUP[1]*INF[0]*RADMIL[0]	1.000	1.000	0.011	0.011
ORIGIN[0]*ROLE[1]*GROUP[1]*INF[1]*RADMIL[1]	1.000	1.000	0.004	0.004
ORIGIN[0]*ROLE[1]*GROUP[1]*INF[2]*RADMIL[1]	1.000	1.000	0.004	0.004
ORIGIN[0]*ROLE[1]*GROUP[1]*INF[3]*RADMIL[2]	1.000	1.000	0.004	0.004
ORIGIN[0]*ROLE[2]*GROUP[1]*INF[3]*RADMIL[1]	1.000	1.000	0.004	0.004
ORIGIN[0]*ROLE[2]*GROUP[1]*INF[3]*RADMIL[2]	1.000	1.000	0.007	0.007
ORIGIN[0]*ROLE[3]*GROUP[1]*INF[3]*RADMIL[2]	1.000	1.000	0.004	0.004
ORIGIN[0]*ROLE[4]*GROUP[1]*INF[2]*RADMIL[1]	1.000	1.000	0.004	0.004
ORIGIN[1]*ROLE[1]*GROUP[0]*INF[1]*RADMIL[0]	1.000	1.000	0.004	0.004
ORIGIN[1]*ROLE[1]*GROUP[1]*INF[1]*RADMIL[1]	1.000	1.000	0.052	0.052
ORIGIN[1]*ROLE[1]*GROUP[1]*INF[2]*RADMIL[2]	1.000	1.000	0.007	0.007
ORIGIN[1]*ROLE[1]*GROUP[2]*INF[1]*RADMIL[1]	1.000	1.000	0.022	0.022
ORIGIN[1]*ROLE[1]*GROUP[3]*INF[1]*RADMIL[1]	1.000	1.000	0.011	0.011
ORIGIN[1]*ROLE[2]*GROUP[1]*INF[0]*RADMIL[1]	1.000	1.000	0.011	0.011
ORIGIN[1]*ROLE[2]*GROUP[1]*INF[1]*RADMIL[1]	1.000	1.000	0.007	0.007
ORIGIN[1]*ROLE[2]*GROUP[1]*INF[1]*RADMIL[2]	1.000	1.000	0.019	0.019
ORIGIN[1]*ROLE[2]*GROUP[1]*INF[2]*RADMIL[1]	1.000	1.000	0.007	0.007
ORIGIN[1]*ROLE[2]*GROUP[2]*INF[0]*RADMIL[1]	1.000	1.000	0.004	0.004
ORIGIN[1]*ROLE[2]*GROUP[2]*INF[2]*RADMIL[1]	1.000	1.000	0.004	0.004
ORIGIN[1]*ROLE[2]*GROUP[3]*INF[1]*RADMIL[2]	1.000	1.000	0.007	0.007
ORIGIN[1]*ROLE[3]*GROUP[0]*INF[1]*RADMIL[2]	1.000	1.000	0.004	0.004
ORIGIN[1]*ROLE[3]*GROUP[1]*INF[0]*RADMIL[1]	1.000	1.000	0.004	0.004
ORIGIN[1]*ROLE[3]*GROUP[1]*INF[0]*RADMIL[2]	1.000	1.000	0.011	0.011
ORIGIN[1]*ROLE[3]*GROUP[1]*INF[2]*RADMIL[1]	1.000	1.000	0.004	0.004
ORIGIN[1]*ROLE[3]*GROUP[1]*INF[2]*RADMIL[2]	1.000	1.000	0.015	0.015
ORIGIN[1]*ROLE[3]*GROUP[2]*INF[2]*RADMIL[1]	1.000	1.000	0.007	0.007
ORIGIN[1]*ROLE[3]*GROUP[2]*INF[2]*RADMIL[2]	1.000	1.000	0.011	0.011
ORIGIN[1]*ROLE[3]*GROUP[3]*INF[1]*RADMIL[2]	1.000	1.000	0.011	0.011
ORIGIN[1]*ROLE[4]*GROUP[0]*INF[0]*RADMIL[1]	1.000	1.000	0.004	0.004
ORIGIN[1]*ROLE[4]*GROUP[1]*INF[2]*RADMIL[1]	1.000	1.000	0.007	0.007
ORIGIN[1]*ROLE[4]*GROUP[2]*INF[1]*RADMIL[1]	1.000	1.000	0.007	0.007
ORIGIN[2]*ROLE[1]*GROUP[0]*INF[0]*RADMIL[1]	1.000	1.000	0.007	0.007
ORIGIN[2]*ROLE[1]*GROUP[1]*INF[4]*RADMIL[1]	1.000	1.000	0.004	0.004
ORIGIN[2]*ROLE[1]*GROUP[2]*INF[0]*RADMIL[1]	1.000	1.000	0.004	0.004
ORIGIN[2]*ROLE[2]*GROUP[1]*INF[0]*RADMIL[2]	1.000	1.000	0.004	0.004
ORIGIN[2]*ROLE[2]*GROUP[1]*INF[4]*RADMIL[2]	1.000	1.000	0.007	0.007
ORIGIN[2]*ROLE[4]*GROUP[1]*INF[1]*RADMIL[1]	1.000	1.000	0.004	0.004
ORIGIN[2]*ROLE[4]*GROUP[1]*INF[4]*RADMIL[1]	1.000	1.000	0.004	0.004
ORIGIN[3]*ROLE[1]*GROUP[1]*INF[0]*RADMIL[2]	1.000	1.000	0.004	0.004
ORIGIN[3]*ROLE[1]*GROUP[1]*INF[1]*RADMIL[1]	1.000	1.000	0.004	0.004
ORIGIN[3]*ROLE[1]*GROUP[1]*INF[3]*RADMIL[1]	1.000	1.000	0.004	0.004
ORIGIN[3]*ROLE[2]*GROUP[1]*INF[0]*RADMIL[2]	1.000	1.000	0.011	0.011

Table C1. Calibration summary for csQCA (all cases from the origin of Bosnia.).

Set label	Abbr.	Set values
Travelled to Syrian conflict zone (outcome)	TRAVEL	1 - yes
Role in conflict participation as fighter	FIGHTER	0 - non-fighter 1 - fighter
Syria-based group affiliation with Islamic State	IS	0 - not affiliated
		1 - affiliated
Syria-based group affiliation with al-Nusra Front	AN	0 - not affiliated
		1 - affiliated
Connection to Nusret I.	IGM	0 - none/not evidenced
		1 - connected
Connection to Bilal B.	BO	0 - none/not evidenced
		1 - connected
Positive active relationship with Balkan radical milieu	RADMIL	0 - none or positive passive
		1 - positive active

Table C2. Unabridged solution table for csQCA. A tilde (∼) in front of a condition refers to the condition’s absence.

	conjunction	cases covered	cases uniquely covered	(M1)	(M2)
1	∼FIGHTER*∼IS*∼IGM	34(15.6%)	4(1.8%)	4(1.8%)	4(1.8%)
2	∼FIGHTER*∼AN*∼IGM	53(24.3%)	8(3.7%)	8(3.7%)	8(3.7%)
3	∼FIGHTER*∼POSACT*∼BO	50(22.9%)	8(3.7%)	9(4.1%)	8(3.7%)
4	FIGHTER*POSACT*∼IGM	98(45%)	25(11.5%)	25(11.5%)	52(23.9%)
5	∼FIGHTER*∼IS*∼AN*∼BO	28(12.8%)	2(0.9%)	2(0.9%)	2(0.9%)
6	FIGHTER*IS*POSACT*∼BO	55(25.2%)	11(5%)	11(5%)		11(5%)
7	FIGHTER*AN*POSACT*∼BO	20(9.2%)	7(3.2%)	7(3.2%)		7(3.2%)
8	∼IS*∼AN*∼POSACT*∼BO	29(13.3%)	1(0.5%)	1(0.5%)		1(0.5%)
9	FIGHTER*∼IGM*∼BO	98(45%)	0(0%)	19(8.7%)
10	∼POSACT*∼IGM*∼BO	0.294	0(0%)			19(8.7%)

For example, ∼FIGHTER denotes “not a member of the FIGHTER set.” (normally, a QCA solution table includes measures of consistency (“inclS”) and fit (“PRI”). However, since there is no variation in outcome in the data, the solution terms are all perfectly consistent and fit (“1.000”).).

Table C3. Necessity analysis.

		inclN	RoN	covN
1	FIGHTER+∼AN	0.954	1.000	1.000
2	FIGHTER+∼POSACT	0.922	1.000	1.000
3	FIGHTER+∼IGM	0.940	1.000	1.000
4	FIGHTER+∼BO	0.945	1.000	1.000
5	∼IS+∼AN	0.931	1.000	1.000
6	∼IS+∼IGM	0.904	1.000	1.000
7	IS+∼IGM	0.936	1.000	1.000
8	IS+∼BO	0.950	1.000	1.000
9	∼AN + POSACT	0.940	1.000	1.000
10	∼AN+∼IGM	0.940	1.000	1.000
11	∼AN+∼BO	0.972	1.000	1.000
12	POSACT+∼IGM	0.945	1.000	1.000
13	POSACT±∼BO	0.972	1.000	1.000

Table

	FIGHTER	IS	AN	POSACT	IGM	BO	OUT	n
53	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	36
37	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	27
54	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	21
1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	19
17	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	17
49	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	13
55	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	11
47	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	7
33	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	6
19	0	1	0	0	1	0	1	5
45	1	0	1	1	0	0	1	5
61	1	1	1	1	0	0	1	5
5	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	4
21	0	1	0	1	0	0	1	4
2	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	3
3	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	3
41	1	0	1	0	0	0	1	3
57	1	1	1	0	0	0	1	3
63	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	3
6	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	2
7	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	2
9	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	2
14	0	0	1	1	0	1	1	2
18	0	1	0	0	0	1	1	2
22	0	1	0	1	0	1	1	2
27	0	1	1	0	1	0	1	2
46	1	0	1	1	0	1	1	2
10	0	0	1	0	0	1	1	1
11	0	0	1	0	1	0	1	1
13	0	0	1	1	0	0	1	1
25	0	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
35	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1
38	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	1
62	1	1	1	1	0	1	1	1
30 further truth table rows with no empiricavl manifestations