The Other Dark Side of Pro-Government Militias: Deterring Nonviolent Action and Spoiling Prospects for Peace During Civil Wars

Figures & data

Table 1. Logit regressions of protest incidence.

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)
	Protest	Protest	Pro-peace protest	Pro-peace protest	Protest (misc.)	Protest (misc.)	Protest ACLED	Protest ACLED
Concessions (t-1)	0.509***	0.266	0.273	0.077	0.737**	0.557***	0.322	−0.083
	(0.171)	(0.224)	(0.352)	(0.348)	(0.298)	(0.215)	(0.332)	(0.345)
PGM (t-1)	0.249*		0.281		0.208		0.248
	(0.151)		(0.243)		(0.241)		(0.296)
Concessions x PGM	−1.371***		−0.800**		−1.843***		−1.757***
	(0.214)		(0.362)		(0.231)		(0.322)
NGM (t-1)		0.027		0.107		−0.090		0.321
		(0.168)		(0.191)		(0.290)		(0.246)
Concessions x NGM		−0.273		0.059		−0.649		0.351
		(0.556)		(0.675)		(0.726)		(0.510)
BRD (t-1) (log)	0.034	0.036	0.009	0.010	0.049	0.052	0.024	0.015
	(0.036)	(0.034)	(0.050)	(0.048)	(0.036)	(0.036)	(0.047)	(0.047)
GDP p.c. (log)	0.244*	0.238*	0.198	0.184	0.177	0.180	0.372*	0.354*
	(0.146)	(0.143)	(0.126)	(0.120)	(0.160)	(0.171)	(0.193)	(0.200)
Polity	−0.024	−0.023	−0.027	−0.028	0.003	0.006	0.093**	0.089**
	(0.034)	(0.034)	(0.033)	(0.034)	(0.045)	(0.044)	(0.047)	(0.045)
Strikes (t-1)	0.462***	0.458***	0.177	0.170	0.633**	0.630**	0.197	0.187
	(0.165)	(0.163)	(0.264)	(0.270)	(0.280)	(0.283)	(0.191)	(0.183)
Spontaneous riots (t-1)	0.746***	0.760***	0.607***	0.609***	0.673***	0.699***	0.782***	0.775***
	(0.160)	(0.156)	(0.186)	(0.187)	(0.174)	(0.168)	(0.121)	(0.125)
Time since last event	−0.051***	−0.052***	−0.028***	−0.029***	−0.010	−0.010	−0.067***	−0.065***
	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.021)	(0.021)
Constant	−3.101***	−3.029***	−3.287***	−3.163***	−3.854***	−3.833***	−3.544**	−3.447**
	(1.068)	(1.024)	(0.955)	(0.904)	(1.127)	(1.172)	(1.498)	(1.529)
N	1,773	1,773	1,773	1,773	1,773	1,773	1,773	1,773

Note: Robust standard errors in parentheses, *** p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05, * p < 0.1.

Figure 1. Predicted probabilities.

Notes: The graph presents predicted probabilities of protest given PGM and Concessions. All other control variables are held at their observed values. The graph is created on the basis of Models 1, 3, 5, and 7. Computed with 95% confidence intervals.

Table 2. Logit regressions of PGMs attacks on civilians.

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
	PGM attacks on civilians	NGM attacks on civilians	PGM attacks on civilians	NGM attacks on civilians
Concessions (t-1)	0.968***	−0.223	1.115***	−0.045
	(0.368)	(0.263)	(0.183)	(0.507)
BRD (t-1) (log)	0.106	0.113**	−0.066	0.087
	(0.070)	(0.052)	(0.150)	(0.063)
GDP p.c. (log)	−0.169	−0.069	−0.434	−0.297***
	(0.363)	(0.106)	(0.436)	(0.110)
Polity	0.054	0.066	0.074	0.081
	(0.075)	(0.049)	(0.064)	(0.058)
Demonstrations (t-1)	0.115	−0.267	−0.148	−0.656**
	(0.167)	(0.179)	(0.185)	(0.293)
Strikes (t-1)	0.115	0.026	1.038***	0.127
	(0.421)	(0.411)	(0.384)	(0.562)
Spontaneous riots (t-1)	0.492*	0.368*	−0.619	0.078
	(0.252)	(0.200)	(0.380)	(0.277)
Time since last attack	−0.105***	−0.090***	−0.074**	−0.088***
on civilians	(0.034)	(0.020)	(0.029)	(0.019)
Constant	0.199	−0.632	3.927	2.358***
	(2.324)	(0.850)	(2.760)	(0.803)
N	1,773	1,773	216	403

Note: Robust standard errors in parentheses; *** p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05, * p < 0.1.

Table 3. Logit regressions of protest incidence.

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
	Protest	Pro-peace protest	Protest (misc.)	Protest ACLED
Concessions (t-1)	0.382**	0.178	0.631**	0.247
	(0.172)	(0.363)	(0.278)	(0.355)
PGM informal (t-1)	0.291*	0.451**	0.015	0.319
	(0.154)	(0.208)	(0.295)	(0.352)
Concessions x PGM	−1.040***	−0.620*	−1.393***	−1.611***
Informal	(0.209)	(0.344)	(0.300)	(0.321)
BRD (t-1) (log)	0.034	0.008	0.052	0.025
	(0.035)	(0.049)	(0.037)	(0.050)
GDP p.c. (log)	0.256*	0.221*	0.173	0.386**
	(0.145)	(0.125)	(0.161)	(0.183)
Polity	−0.024	−0.029	0.004	0.093**
	(0.034)	(0.033)	(0.046)	(0.046)
Strikes (t-1)	0.452***	0.159	0.633**	0.186
	(0.161)	(0.255)	(0.281)	(0.192)
Spontaneous riots (t-1)	0.752***	0.611***	0.683***	0.785***
	(0.161)	(0.189)	(0.172)	(0.124)
Time since last event	−0.051***	−0.028***	−0.010	−0.067***
	(0.014)	(0.008)	(0.007)	(0.021)
Constant	−3.182***	−3.458***	−3.803***	−3.642**
	(1.056)	(0.944)	(1.136)	(1.421)
N	1,773	1,773	1,773	1,773

Note: Robust standard errors in parentheses; *** p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05, * p < 0.1.