The art of partial commitment: the politics of military assistance to Ukraine

Figures & data

Table 1. Western military assistance to Ukraine, February 2014–January 2022.

Country (year of first delivery)	Anti-armor weapons	Armored vehicles	Artillery	Drones	Medical equipment	Small arms/ammunition/mortar	Surface vessels	Training	Other
Canada (2014)		E				E		E	E
Czech Republic (2014)		S	S			E
Denmark (2017)							BP/E
Estonia (2020)	US					S
France (2018)							E
Germany (2014)					E
Latvia (2021)	US				E
Lithuania (2016)	US					S
Poland 2014)	S, UP	S		UC
Portugal (2017)									E
Spain (2017)						UP
Turkey (2020)				UC			UC
United Kingdom (2014)	E	E					UC	E	E
United States (2014	US			US			UC	US	US

Notes: US = US-origin; S = Soviet-origin; E = European/Canadian-origin; NE = non-European-origin; BP = blueprints; UC = under contract or construction; UP = under production in Ukraine. Missing are Albania, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Luxembourg, Montenegro, the Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia given their official abstention during this timeframe.

Table 2. Congressional authorization for military assistance to Ukraine per the USAI.

NDAA (Congress, section)	Additionally approved military assistance
2016 (114th Congress 2015, §1250)	Real time or near real time actionable intelligence Lethal assistance such anti-armor weapon systems, mortars, crew-served weapons and ammunition, grenade launchers and ammunition, and small arms and ammunition Counter-artillery radars Unmanned aerial tactical surveillance systems Cyber capabilities Counter-electronic warfare capabilities Other electronic warfare capabilities Training required to maintain systems and capabilities Training for critical combat operations
2017 (114th Congress 2016, §1237)	Equipment and technical assistance to the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine Training for staff officers and senior leadership of the military
2018 (115th Congress 2017, §1234)	Treatment of wounded Ukrainian soldiers in the United States Air defense and coastal defense radars Naval mine and counter-mine capabilities Littoral-zone and coastal defense vessels
2019 (115th Congress 2018, §1246)	None
2020 (116th Congress 2019, §1244)	Air defense and coastal defense radars, and systems to support effective command and control and integration of air defense and coastal defense capabilities Coastal defense and anti-ship missile systems
2021 (116th Congress 2020, §1235)	None
2020 (117^th Congress 2021, §1232)	None

Table 3. Western military assistance to Ukraine, 2022.

Country	Anti-armor weapons	Armored vehicles	Artillery	Drones	Rotary-wing aircraft	Small arms/ammunition/mortar	Anti-ship or anti-air systems	Training	Surface-ship
Belgium	US
Canada	US	E	US			E		E
Czech Republic	S	S	E		S	S	E
Denmark	US	US	US	US		NE	US	E
Estonia	US	NE	S	?
France			E
Germany	E		E				US, E
Greece	S	S	E				US
Italy		E	E			US	US
Latvia					?		US	E
Lithuania		US				?	US
Luxembourg	E
Netherlands		E	US, E				US	E
Norway	US	E	US				E	E
Poland	US	S/E	E				E
Portugal		E	US
Slovakia			S, E		S		S
Slovenia		S
Spain	S	E
Turkey				UC
United Kingdom	E	E	US	US/?			E	E	E
United States	US	US	US	US	S	US	US	US

Notes: US = US-origin; S = Soviet-origin; E = European/Canadian-origin; NE = non-European-made; UC = under contract or construction; UP = under production in Ukraine. Missing are Albania, Bulgaria, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Romania, none of which officially provided anything to Ukraine directly.

Table 4. Correlates of aid to Ukraine, post–24 January 2022.

	Dependent Variables: Total and Military Aid to Ukraine
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
	2019 O&M	2019 O&M	2019 O&M	2019 Infrastructure	2019 Infrastructure	2019 Infrastructure
INDEPENDENT VARIABLES	Total Aid/GDP	Military Aid/GDP	Pre-SMO Aid (qualitative)	Total Aid/GDP	Military Aid/GDP	Pre-SMO Aid (qualitative)
O&M Spending (% GDP, 2019)	0.582***	0.602***	4.545***
	(0.196)	(0.179)	(1.526)
Infrastructure Spending (% GDP, 2019)				3.645***	3.689***	9.360
				(0.863)	(0.776)	(6.233)
UNGA Agreement w/RUS (%, 2018)	0.563	0.605	0.615	0.310	0.301	−6.665
	(1.154)	(1.058)	(8.008)	(0.895)	(0.804)	(6.869)
Russian Fossil Fuel Dependency (%, 2020)	0.016	−0.023	0.161	0.100	0.056	−0.826
	(0.239)	(0.219)	(1.520)	(0.208)	(0.187)	(1.506)
Frontline Dummy (EST, LAT, LTU, POL)	−0.000	−0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)
GDP/capita (2019)	−0.000	−0.000	−0.000*	−0.000	−0.000	−0.000
	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)
Constant	−0.137	−0.321		−0.075	−0.220
	(0.874)	(0.801)		(0.685)	(0.615)
Observations	23	23	23	23	23	23
Estimate	OLS	OLS	Ordered Probit	OLS	OLS	Ordered Probit
R-squared	0.518	0.545	.	0.643	0.676	.

Standard errors in parentheses*** p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05, * p < 0.1

Table 5. Pre–February 2022 qualitative aid score versus post–February 2022 aid/GDP.

Country	Pre–24 February 2022		Post–24 February 2022
	Qualitative group	Qualitative score	Total UKR aid (%GDP)
United States	First-tier	5	0.21637
United Kingdom	First-tier	5	0.18646
Canada	Second-tier	4	0.1417
Poland	Second-tier	4	0.60542
Czech Republic	Second-tier	4	0.24969
Lithuania	Second-tier	4	0.39611
Estonia	Third-tier	3	0.96532
Latvia	Third-tier	3	0.82033
Turkey	Third-tier	3	0.00003
France	Fourth-tier	2	0.19221
Spain	Fourth-tier	2	0.15292
Denmark	Fourth-tier	2	0.18284
Portugal	Fifth-tier	1	0.22051
Germany	Fifth-tier	1	0.17949
Netherlands	Absent	0	0.1522
Belgium	Absent	0	0.1564
Luxembourg	Absent	0	0.14516
Hungary	Absent	0	0.14923
Slovakia	Absent	0	0.24753
Italy	Absent	0	0.1421
Croatia	Absent	0	0.16236
Slovenia	Absent	0	0.11132
Greece	Absent	0	0.26157
Bulgaria	Absent	0	0.13602
Romania	Absent	0	0.10488
Norway	Absent	0	0.15398

Figure 1. 2019 O&M spending and 2022 aid to Ukraine.

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