Incremental validity of ambulatory assessment of acute dynamic risk in predicting time to recidivism among prisoners on parole

Figures & data

Table 1. Differences in mean values between recidivist (n = 40) and non-recidivist (n = 50) in acute dynamic risk over the assessment period (day 1–30).

Variables	Total (n = 90) M ± SD	Recidivist M ± SD	Non-recidivist M ± SD	Group comparison
Summary score	42.4 ± 32.0	50.1 ± 33.2	35.9 ± 29.7	<.05
AHSS – stress	0.8 ± 0.3	0.8 ± 0.3	0.7 ± 0.3	NS
SCL-8D – Mental health symptoms sum score	17.5 ± 15.6	20.8 ± 15.7	14.7 ± 15.1	NS
Depression subscale	4.7 ± 8.8	6.8 ± 8.7	2.9 ± 8.6	<.05
Anxiety subscale	9.0 ± 8.1	10.6 ± 8.2	7.6 ± 7.9	NS
Alcohol use	1.4 ± 1.7	1.9 ± 1.9	0.9 ± 1.4	<.01
Alcohol urge	1.2 ± 1.7	1.7 ± 1.9	0.8 ± 1.4	<.05
Drug use	1.1 ± 1.8	1.7 ± 2.1	0.6 ± 1.5	<.01
Drug urge	0.4 ± 0.4	0.5 ± 0.4	0.3 ± 0.3	<.001
Rating of most stressful everyday event	2.3 ± 1.9	2.8 ± 2.0	1.8 ± 1.7	<.01

Note: Comparison on ratings on acute risk factors between recidivist and non-recidivist were assessed by Mann-Whitney U tests.

Table 2. Hazard ratios for baseline measures of impulsiveness, pre-release symptoms of anxiety (HSCL-25), problematic drug use (DUDIT), and recidivism in crime (n = 90).

Variable	HR	(CI)
Impulsiveness	1.563**	(1.132–2.158)
HSCL
Anxiety sub-score	1.653	(0.945–2.892)
DUDIT
Total score	1.015*	(1.002–1.028)
≥ 2/6	3.387**	(1.559–7.360)
Multiple regression		Model values
	HR	(CI)
Impulsiveness	1.407*	(1.021–1.938)
DUDIT ≥ 2/6	2.947**	(1.339–6.487)

**P < 0.01; *P < 0.05.

Table 3. Analysis of ten acute dynamic risk factors in the total group of paroled offenders (n = 90).

Variables	Analysis of change	Analysis of recidivism
	Estimates (SE)	Hazard ratio (95% CI)
Summary score			χ^2 (3) = 8.61, p = 0.04
Baseline	.40 (.11)***
Intercept	18.86 (6.27)**	1.636 (1.155–2.138)**
Slope	−.05 (.14)	1.478 (1.021–2.141)*
Intervention		1.446 (0.714–2.738)
DUDIT ≥ 2/6		2.713 (1.227–5.997)*
Impulsiveness		1.290 (0.936–1.778)
Variance component
Intercept	911.71 (148.09)***
Slope	1.46 (.29)***
AHSS – Stress			χ^2 (3) = 6.79, p = 0.08
Baseline	.41 (.10)***
Intercept	7.17 (2.59)**	1.495 (1.051–2.126)*
Slope	−.03 (.06)	1.462 (0.995–2.147)
Intervention		1.420 (0.752–2.680)
DUDIT ≥ 2/6		2.784 (1.262–6.141)**
Impulsiveness		1.314 (0.956–1.806)
Variance component
Intercept	125.71 (20.21)***
Slope	.21 (.04)***
SCL-8D – Mental health symptoms sum score			χ^2 (3) = 7.00, p = 0.07
Baseline	.33 (.08)***
Intercept	9.25 (2.57)***	1.559 (1.083–2.245)*
Slope	.003 (.07)	1.513 (1.000–2.288)*
Intervention		1.434 (0.758–2.713)
DUDIT ≥ 2/6		2.935 (1.332–6.468)**
Impulsiveness		1.314 (0.955–1.809)
Variance component
Intercept	207.90 (33.68)***
Slope	.36 (.07)***
Depression subscale			χ^2 (3) = 5.76, p = 0.12
Baseline	.30 (.09)**
Intercept	4.99 (1.27)***	1.569 (1.052–2.339)*
Slope	.007 (0.04)	1.436 (0.955–2.158)
Intervention		1.393 (0.736–2.636)
DUDIT ≥ 2/6		2.952 (1.339–6.508)**
Impulsiveness		1.315 (0.955–1.810)
Variance component
Intercept	52.14 (8.56)***
Slope	.10 (.02)***
Anxiety subscale			χ^2 (3) = 7.39, p = 0.06
Baseline	.32 (.08)***
Intercept	4.81 (1.26)***	1.531 (1.077–2.177)*
Slope	−.004 (0.03)	1.551 (1.013–2.374)*
Intervention		1.449 (0.767–2.733)
DUDIT ≥ 2/6		2.901 (1.317–6.389)**
Impulsiveness		1.322 (0.959–1.822)
Variance component
Intercept	54.42 (8.93)***
Slope	.08 (.02)***
Alcohol use			χ^2 (3) = 8.25, p = 0.04
Baseline	.03 (.08)
Intercept	1.64 (0.21)***	1.780 (1.204–2.631)**
Slope	−.014 (.007)	1.365 (0.917–2.030)
Intervention		1.699 (0.859–3.361)
DUDIT ≥ 2/6		2.357 (1.034–5.377)*
Impulsiveness		1.307 (0.943–1.810)
Variance component
Intercept	3.02 (.54)***
Slope	.002 (.0007)***
Alcohol urge			χ^2 (3) = 5.31, p = 0.15
Baseline	.02 (.07)
Intercept	1.23 (0.23)***	1.501 (1.012–2.226)*
Slope	−.007 (0.008)	1.148 (0.793–1.661)
Intervention		1.297 (0.661–2.692)
DUDIT ≥ 2/6		2.478 (1.094–5.606)*
Impulsiveness		1.389 (0.994–1.940)
Variance component
Intercept	3.15 (0.55)***
Slope	.004 (0.0009)***
Drug use			χ^2 (3) = 8.79, p = 0.03
Baseline	−.008 (0.10)
Intercept	1.08 (0.21)***	1.595 (1.164–2.186)**
Slope	.004 (.008)	1.522 (1.050–2.206)*
Intervention		1.588 (0.822–3.066)
DUDIT ≥ 2/6		2.472 (1.089–5.613)*
Impulsiveness		1.327 (0.965–1.826)
Variance component
Intercept	3.69 (0.63)***
Slope	.004 (.0009)***
Drug urge			χ^2 (3) = 6.38, p = 0.09
Baseline	.29 (.08)***
Intercept	.90 (.26)***	1.425 (1.068–1.899)*
Slope	.0001 (0.008)	1.016 (0.772–1.338)
Intervention		1.181 (0.621–2.247)
DUDIT ≥ 2/6		2.378 (1.040–5.426)*
Impulsiveness		1.333 (0.947–1.877)
Variance component
Intercept	3.86 (0.64)***
Slope	.003 (.0008)***
Rating of most stressful everyday event			χ^2 (3) = 6.38, p = 0.09
Baseline	.03 (.066)
Intercept	2.45 (.31)***	1.560 (1.029–2.366)*
Slope	−.03 (.011)*	1.581 (1.028–2.432)*
Intervention		1.482 (0.770–2.852)
DUDIT ≥ 2/6		2.789 (1.251–6.217)*
Impulsiveness		1.344 (0.988–1.828)
Variance component
Intercept	3.66 (.65)***
Slope	.008 (.002)***

Note: The first section presents analysis of linear change, here presented as linear growth model estimates, i.e. baseline score, intercepts and slopes. The second section presents survival analysis of recidivism in crime, here presented as hazard ratios, and likelihood ratio test.

*P ≤ .05; **P ≤ .01; ***P ≤ .001.