Alternative stories and the decision to prosecute: an applied approach against confirmation bias in criminal prosecution

Figures & data

Table 1. Means and Standard Deviations for guilt likelihood (1–7), conviction likelihood (1–7), as well as charging rate and conviction rate in % of Study 1.

	No-defensive Statement	Alternative Story	Total
PCE	M(SD) / %	M(SD) / %	M(SD) / %
perceived guilt
No PCE	5.52 (1.72)	3.43 (1.78)	4.45 (2.03)
PCE	5.89 (1.63)	4.02 (2.00)	4.91 (2.01)
Total	5.71 (1.68)	3.74 (1.92)	4.69 (2.05)
conviction likelihood
No PCE	4.68 (1.80)	3.30 (1.79)	3.97 (1.92)
PCE	5.20 (2.10)	4.03 (2.03)	4.59 (3.14)
Total	4.95 (1.97)	3.69 (1.95)	4.30 (2.05)
Charging rate
No PCE	56.00%	30.20%	42.70%
PCE	85.20%	45.80%	64.60%
Total	71.20%	38.40%	54.20%
Conviction rate
No PCE	36.00%	13.20%	24.80%
PCE	59.30%	20.30%	39.30%
Total	48.50%	17.30%	32.40%

Table 2. Means and Standard Deviations for guilt likelihood (1–9), conviction likelihood (1–9), as well as charging rate and conviction rate in % of Study 2.

	No-defensive Statement	Statement of Innocence	Alternative Story	Total
PCE	M(SD) / %	M(SD) / %	M(SD) / %	M(SD) / %
guilt likelihood
No PCE	6.70 (1.63)	5.96 (1.97)	4.91 (2.08)	5.88 (2.02)
PCE	6.32 (1.41)	5.48 (1.97)	5.08 (1.66)	5.62 (1.78)
Total	6.50 (1.52)	5.68 (1.97)	5.00 (1.85)	5.74 (1.89)
conviction likelihood
No PCE	5.87 (2.20)	4.78 (2.02)	4.00 (1.90)	4.91 (2.18)
PCE	5.91 (2.00)	3.98 (2.14)	4.74 (2.25)	4.83 (2.27)
Total	5.89 (2.09)	4.33 (2.12)	4.41 (2.13)	4.87 (2.22)
charging rate
No PCE	80.90%	58.70%	51.20%	64.00%
PCE	75.90%	55.70%	53.80%	61.00%
Total	78.20%	57.00%	52.60%	62.70%
conviction rate
No PCE	47.80%	28.30%	18.60%	31.90%
PCE	49.90%	29.50%	26.90%	34.80%
Total	48.50%	29.00%	23.20%	33.40%

Data availability statement

The data that support the findings of these studies are available from the corresponding author upon request.