Using a reassessment framework to determine critical case management needs: DRAOR improves on LS/RNR’s predictive discrimination of short-term recidivism

Figures & data

Table 1. Sample sizes by outcomes and predictors.

Outcome	Frequencies
	Recidivism events (Base rate)	LS/RNRs	DRAORs	Participants	Sequences
Any recidivism	169 (8.2%)	4511	32,979	2058	2067
General recidivism	134 (6.5%)	4548	33,528	2063	2073
Violent recidivism	54 (2.6%)	4603	33,933	2076	2087

Note: Number of recidivism events, LS/RNRs, and DRAORs are based on sequences. LS/RNR = Level of Service/Risk, Need, Responsivity (Andrews et al., 2008); DRAOR = Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry (Serin, 2007); Sequence = A period of re-entry into the community following prison.

Table 2. Descriptive statistics and Kendall’s Tau correlations for baseline LS/RNR and DRAOR assessments.

Assessments	Descriptive statistics					Correlations with DRAOR subscales
	N	M	SD	Median	Range	Stable	Acute	Protect
LS/RNR domains
Criminal history	2087	4.97	2.51	6.00	0–8	.307***	.220***	−.215***
Education employment	2087	3.94	2.61	4.00	0–9	.220***	.239***	−.183***
Family marital	2087	2.03	1.23	2.00	0–4	.247***	.242***	−.245***
Leisure recreation	2087	1.45	0.76	2.00	0–2	.259***	.253***	−.244***
Companions	2087	2.90	1.30	3.00	0–4	.320***	.241***	−.250***
Alcohol drug problem	2087	2.85	2.43	2.00	0–8	.292***	.236***	−.190***
Procriminal attitude	2087	2.06	1.25	2.00	0–4	.379***	.257***	−.309***
Antisocial pattern	2087	1.63	1.07	2.00	0–4	.362***	.285***	−.289***
Total	2087	21.84	9.37	22.00	1–42	.385***	.316***	−.297***
DRAOR subscales
Stable	2087	4.95	2.78	5.00	0–12	–	.445***	–.436***
Acute	2087	3.50	2.36	3.00	0–13	–	–	–.337***
Protect	2087	5.26	3.27	6.00	0–12	–	–	–
Days between
LS/RNR and prison release	2087	24.76	257.39	−46.00	−1134–2138	–	–	–
DRAOR and prison release	2087	119.67	268.64	0.00	−48–2255	–	–	–

Note: Days were rounded to the nearest whole number; N = person sequences. LS/RNR = Level of Service/Risk, Need, Responsivity (Andrews et al., 2008); DRAOR = Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry (Serin, 2007). Variance inflation factor (VIF) tests revealed no concerns about multicollinearity, with DRAOR Stable VIF = 2.03, DRAOR Acute VIF = 1.56, DRAOR Protect VIF = 1.58, and LS/RNR VIF = 1.45.

*** p < .001.

Table 3. Univariate Cox regression models with baseline LS/RNR, criminal history, or DRAOR subscales as predictors.

Models	B (SE)	Exp(B) [95% CI]	c index	95% CI	R^2	AIC/BIC
Any recidivism^a
1. LS/RNR	.11*** (0.01)	1.11 [1.09, 1.14]	.73	[0.69, 0.77]	.68	2116.691/2119.821
2. LS/RNR Criminal history	.48*** (0.05)	1.62 [1.46, 1.79]	.74	[0.70, 0.77]	.69	2109.343/2112.473
3. DRAOR Stable	.13*** (0.03)	1.14 [1.08, 1.20]	.61	[0.57, 0.66]	.09	2220.751/2223.881
4. DRAOR Acute	.14*** (0.03)	1.15 [1.08, 1.22]	.60	[0.56, 0.65]	.06	2222.056/2225.186
5. DRAOR Protect	−.06* (0.03)	0.95 [0.90, 0.99]	.55	[0.50, 0.60]	.02	2235.668/2238.798
General recidivism^b
6. LS/RNR	.11*** (0.01)	1.11 [1.09, 1.14]	.74	[0.70, 0.78]	.60	1666.292/1669.190
7. LS/RNR Criminal history	.47*** (0.06)	1.60 [1.43, 1.79]	.74	[0.71, 0.78]	.62	1664.177/1667.074
8. DRAOR Stable	.13*** (0.03)	1.14 [1.07, 1.21]	.62	[0.57, 0.66]	.06	1750.333/1753.231
9. DRAOR Acute	.12*** (0.04)	1.12 [1.05, 1.20]	.59	[0.54, 0.64]	.06	1755.963/1758.861
10. DRAOR Protect	−.04 (0.03)	0.96 [0.90, 1.01]	.54	[0.49, 0.59]	.00	1764.033/1766.931
Violent recidivism^c
11. LS/RNR	.11*** (0.02)	1.12 [1.08, 1.16]	.75	[0.68, 0.82]	.55	653.716/655.705
12. LS/RNR Criminal history	.49*** (0.09)	1.63 [1.37, 1.93]	.76	[0.70, 0.81]	.62	651.736/653.725
13. DRAOR Stable	.12* (0.05)	1.13 [1.02, 1.24]	.59	[0.50, 0.68]	.04	692.689/694.678
14. DRAOR Acute	.13* (0.06)	1.14 [1.02, 1.27]	.60	[0.52, 0.68]	.07	693.025/695.013
15. DRAOR Protect	−.05 (0.04)	0.95 [0.87, 1.04]	.53	[0.44, 0.61]	.02	696.987/698.976

Note: LS/RNR = Level of Service/Risk, Need, Responsivity (Andrews et al., 2008); Criminal History = Criminal History sub-component score from LS/RNR; DRAOR = Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry (Serin, 2007); CI = Confidence interval; c index = concordance (Heagerty & Zheng, 2005); R²= Xu and O’Quigley’s (1999) R², values should not be interpreted in line with Cohen (1988); AIC = Akaike information criterion; BIC = Bayesian information criterion (calculated using the number of events as the sample size; see Volinsky & Raftery, 2000).

^a First criminal charge (including breaches) following prison release, 2067 person sequences (n = 34,790 person periods, 169 recidivism events).

^b First criminal charge (excluding breaches) following prison release, 2073 person sequences (n = 35,426 person periods, 134 recidivism events).

^c First violent criminal charge (including sexual violence) following prison release, 2087 person sequences (n = 35,973 person periods, 54 recidivism events).

* p < .05. ** p < .01. *** p < .001.

Table 4. Multivariate Cox regression models with baseline and most recent LS/RNR or DRAOR subscales as predictors.

Models	B (SE)	Exp(B) [95% CI]	c index	95% CI	R^2	AIC/BIC
Any recidivism^a
1. LS/RNR Baseline	.07*** (0.02)	1.08 [1.04, 1.12]	.73	[0.70, 0.77]	.66	2114.336/2120.596
LS/RNR Updated	.04* (0.02)	1.04 [1.00, 1.08]
2. DRAOR Stable Baseline	.01 (0.04)	1.01 [0.93, 1.10]	.63	[0.58, 0.67]	.19	2205.600/2211.860
DRAOR Stable Updated	.17*** (0.04)	1.19 [1.09, 1.29]
3. DRAOR Acute Baseline	.02 (0.04)	1.02 [0.95, 1.10]	.66	[0.62, 0.71]	.25	2183.546/2189.806
DRAOR Acute Updated	.23*** (0.03)	1.25 [1.17, 1.34]
4. DRAOR Protect Baseline	.02 (0.04)	1.02 [0.94, 1.10]	.57	[0.52, 0.62]	.04	2231.504/2237.764
DRAOR Protect Updated	−.10* (0.04)	0.91 [0.84, 0.98]
General recidivism^b
5. LS/RNR Baseline	.08*** (0.02)	1.08 [1.04, 1.13]	.75	[0.71, 0.78]	.58	1665.137/1670.933
LS/RNR Updated	.04 (0.02)	1.04 [1.00, 1.08]
6. DRAOR Stable Baseline	.03 (0.05)	1.03 [0.94, 1.13]	.63	[0.58, 0.68]	.23	1742.000/1747.795
DRAOR Stable Updated	.14** (0.05)	1.16 [1.06, 1.26]
7. DRAOR Acute Baseline	.01 (0.04)	1.01 [0.93, 1.10]	.66	[0.61, 0.70]	.29	1729.751/1735.547
DRAOR Acute Updated	.21*** (0.04)	1.24 [1.15, 1.33]
8. DRAOR Protect Baseline	.01 (0.04)	1.01 [0.93, 1.09]	.57	[0.51, 0.62]	.03	1763.488/1769.284
DRAOR Protect Updated	−.07(0.04)	0.93 [0.86, 1.02]
Violent recidivism^c
9. LS/RNR Baseline	.08** (0.03)	1.08 [1.02, 1.15]	.75	[0.69, 0.82]	.60	653.898/657.875
LS/RNR Updated	.04 (0.03)	1.04 [0.98, 1.11]
10. DRAOR Stable Baseline	.01 (0.07)	1.01 [0.88, 1.16]	.61	[0.52, 0.69]	.27	689.181/693.159
DRAOR Stable Updated	.16* (0.07)	1.17 [1.03, 1.34]
11. DRAOR Acute Baseline	.03 (0.06)	1.03 [0.91, 1.17]	.66	[0.57, 0.74]	.31	683.086/687.064
DRAOR Acute Updated	.21*** (0.06)	1.24 [1.11, 1.38]
12. DRAOR Protect Baseline	−.002 (0.06)	1.00 [0.88, 1.13]	.55	[0.46, 0.63]	.04	697.796/701.774
DRAOR Protect Updated	−.07 (0.07)	0.93 [0.82, 1.06]

Note: LS/RNR = Level of Service/Risk, Need, Responsivity (Andrews et al., 2008); DRAOR = Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry (Serin, 2007); CI = Confidence interval; c index = concordance (Heagerty & Zheng, 2005); R²= Xu and O’Quigley’s (1999) R², values should not be interpreted in line with Cohen (1988); AIC = Akaike information criterion; BIC = Bayesian information criterion (calculated using the number of events as the sample size; see Volinsky & Raftery, 2000).

^a First criminal charge (including breaches) following prison release, 2067 person sequences (n = 34,790 person periods, 169 recidivism events).

^b First criminal charge (excluding breaches) following prison release, 2073 person sequences (n = 35,426 person periods, 134 recidivism events).

^c First violent criminal charge (including sexual violence) following prison release, 2087 person sequences (n = 35,973 person periods, 54 recidivism events).

* p < .05. ** p < .01. *** p < .001.

Table 5. Multivariate Cox regression models with baseline LS/RNR and most recent DRAOR subscales as predictors.

Models	B (SE)	Exp(B) [95% CI]	c index	95% CI	R^2	AIC/BIC
Any recidivism^a
1. LS/RNR Baseline	.10*** (0.01)	1.12 [1.08, 1.13]	.73	[0.70, 0.77]	.69	2113.242/2119.501
DRAOR Stable Updated	.07* (0.03)	1.08 [1.01, 1.14]
2. LS/RNR Baseline	.10*** (0.01)	1.10 [1.08, 1.12]	.75	[0.72, 0.79]	.69	2095.224/2101.483
DRAOR Acute Updated	.15*** (0.03)	1.17 [1.10, 1.24]
3. LS/RNR Baseline	.11*** (0.01)	1.11 [1.09, 1.14]	.73	[0.69, 0.77]	.68	2118.681/2124.941
DRAOR Protect Updated	−0.001 (0.03)	1.00 [0.95, 1.06]
General recidivism^b
4. LS/RNR Baseline	.10*** (0.01)	1.12 [1.08, 1.14]	.74	[0.70, 0.78]	.61	1665.070/1671.303
DRAOR Stable Updated	.06 (0.03)	1.06 [0.99, 1.14]
5. LS/RNR Baseline	.10*** (0.01)	1.10 [1.08, 1.13]	.76	[0.72, 0.80]	.62	1655.342/1661.138
DRAOR Acute Updated	.13*** (0.03)	1.14 [1.07, 1.22]
6. LS/RNR Baseline	.11*** (0.01)	1.12 [1.09, 1.14]	.74	[0.70, 0.78]	.61	1667.615/1673.411
DRAOR Protect Updated	.02 (0.03)	1.03 [0.96, 1.09]
Violent recidivism^c
7. LS/RNR Baseline	.11*** (0.02)	1.11 [1.07, 1.16]	.75	[0.68, 0.82]	.57	654.687/658.665
DRAOR Stable Updated	.06 (0.05)	1.06 [0.95, 1.18]
8. LS/RNR Baseline	.10*** (0.02)	1.11 [1.07, 1.14]	.77	[0.70, 0.83]	.61	649.873/653.851
DRAOR Acute Updated	.14* (0.05)	1.15 [1.03, 1.28]
9. LS/RNR Baseline	.11*** (0.02)	1.12 [1.08, 1.16]	.75	[0.68, 0.82]	.55	655.525/659.503
DRAOR Protect Updated	.02 (0.5)	1.02 [0.93, 1.13]

Note: LS/RNR = Level of Service/Risk, Need, Responsivity (Andrews et al., 2008); DRAOR = Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry (Serin, 2007); CI = Confidence interval; c index = concordance (Heagerty & Zheng, 2005); R²= Xu and O’Quigley’s (1999) R², values should not be interpreted in line with Cohen (1988); AIC = Akaike information criterion; BIC = Bayesian information criterion (calculated using the number of events as the sample size; see Volinsky & Raftery, 2000).

^a First criminal charge (including breaches) following prison release, 2067 person sequences (n = 34,790 person periods, 169 recidivism events).

^b First criminal charge (excluding breaches) following prison release, 2073 person sequences (n = 35,426 person periods, 134 recidivism events).

^c First violent criminal charge (including sexual violence) following prison release, 2087 person sequences (n = 35,973 person periods, 54 recidivism events).

* p < .05. ** p < .01. *** p < .001.

Table 6. Multivariate Cox regression models with baseline criminal history and most recent DRAOR subscales as predictors.

Models	B (SE)	Exp(B) [95% CI]	c index	95% CI	R^2	AIC/BIC
Any recidivism^a
1. LS/RNR Criminal History	.45*** (0.05)	1.56 [1.41, 1.73]	.75	[0.71, 0.78]	.69	2102.938/2109.186
DRAOR Stable Updated	.09** (0.03)	1.09 [1.03, 1.16]
2. LS/RNR Criminal History	.43*** (0.05)	1.54 [1.40, 1.71]	.77	[0.73, 0.80]	.71	2079.978/2086.232
DRAOR Acute Updated	.18*** (0.03)	1.19 [1.13, 1.27]
3. LS/RNR Criminal History	.47*** (0.05)	1.60 [1.45, 1.77]	.74	[0.70, 0.77]	.69	2110.404/2116.652
DRAOR Protect Updated	−.03 (0.03)	0.97 [0.92, 1.03]
General recidivism^b
4. LS/RNR Criminal History	.44*** (0.06)	1.55 [1.39, 1.74]	.75	[0.72, 0.79]	.62	1661.254/1667.040
DRAOR Stable Updated	.08* (0.03)	1.08 [1.01, 1.16]
5. LS/RNR Criminal History	.43*** (0.06)	1.53 [1.37, 1.71]	.77	[0.73, 0.80]	.65	1647.785/1653.575
DRAOR Acute Updated	.16*** (0.03)	1.17 [1.09, 1.25]
6. LS/RNR Criminal History	.47*** (0.06)	1.60 [1.43, 1.79]	.74	[0.71, 0.78]	.64	1666.173/1671.968
DRAOR Protect Updated	−.002 (0.03)	1.00 [0.94, 1.06]
Violent recidivism^c
7. LS/RNR Criminal History	.46*** (0.09)	1.59 [1.33, 1.89]	.76	[0.70, 0.81]	.62	651.916/655.832
DRAOR Stable Updated	.07 (0.05)	1.08 [0.97, 1.20]
8. LS/RNR Criminal History	.45*** (0.09)	1.56 [1.32, 1.85]	.79	[0.73, 0.84]	.67	645.761/649.737
DRAOR Acute Updated	.16** (0.05)	1.17 [1.06, 1.30]
9. LS/RNR Criminal History	.49*** (0.09)	1.62 [1.37, 1.93]	.75	[0.69, 0.81]	.62	653.723/657.701
DRAOR Protect Updated	−.006 (0.05)	0.99 [0.90, 1.10]

Note: Criminal History = Criminal History sub-component score from Level of Service/Risk, Need, Responsivity (Andrews et al., 2008); DRAOR = Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry (Serin, 2007); CI = Confidence interval; c index = concordance (Heagerty & Zheng, 2005); R²= Xu and O’Quigley’s (1999) R², values should not be interpreted in line with Cohen (1988); AIC = Akaike information criterion; BIC = Bayesian information criterion (calculated using the number of events as the sample size; see Volinsky & Raftery, 2000).

^a First criminal charge (including breaches) following prison release, 2067 person sequences (n = 34,790 person periods, 169 recidivism events).

^b First criminal charge (excluding breaches) following prison release, 2073 person sequences (n = 35,426 person periods, 134 recidivism events).

^c First violent criminal charge (including sexual violence) following prison release, 2087 person sequences (n = 35,973 person periods, 54 recidivism events).

* p < .05. ** p < .01. *** p < .001.

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Data availability statement

Corrections Victoria and Victoria Police own the data described in this article; we used these data with their permission and can share the data only with written permission from Corrections Victoria and Victoria Police. Analysis code for this study is available by emailing the corresponding author.