Childhood predictors of successful self-reported delinquents

Figures & data

Table 1. Prevalence and frequency of offending.

	Ages 10–14, 15–18			Ages 27–32, 42–47
	SR (387)	Con (408)	Ratio	SR (390)	Con (393)	Ratio
Prevalence
Burglary	19.9	11.0	1.8	2.3	2.8	0.8
Theft of vehicle	20.2	12.0	1.7	2.8	1.8	1.6
Theft from vehicle	19.6	5.1	3.8	2.6	1.0	2.6
Shoplifting	46.8	4.9	9.6	6.2	2.5	2.5
Vandalism	28.9	2.5	11.6	1.8	2.5	0.7
Serious SR crime	28.2	17.2	1.6	4.1	3.8	1.1
Minor SR crime	59.4	11.5	5.2	8.5	5.1	1.7
All 5 crimes	63.6	22.8	2.8	11.3	7.6	1.5
Frequency
Burglary	677	77	9.3	18	11	1.6
Theft of vehicle	533	64	8.8	118	8	14.9
Theft from vehicle	601	31	20.4	132	4	33.3
Shoplifting	2130	26	86.4	422	11	38.7
Vandalism	795	11	76.2	7	11	0.6
Serious SR crime	1210	141	9.0	136	19	7.2
Minor SR crime	326	68	54.7	561	26	21.7
All 5 crimes	4736	209	23.9	697	45	15.6

Notes: SR = self-report; con = conviction; Ratios of frequencies takes account of Ns.

Table 2. Juvenile self-reported offending versus convictions.

	5 crimes			Con 10–18			Con 10–26
	NC	C	% C	NC	C	% C	NC	C	% C
SR crime
No	133	8	5.7	127	14	9.9	116	25	17.7
Yes	167	79	32.1	147	99	40.2	126	120	48.8
	(OR = 7.86)			(OR = 6.11)			(OR = 4.42)
SR serious crime
No	256	22	7.9	238	40	14.4	212	66	23.7
Yes	44	65	59.6	36	73	67.0	30	79	72.5
	(OR = 17.19)			(OR = 12.07)			(OR = 8.46)
SR minor crime
No	140	17	10.8	133	24	15.3	122	35	22.3
Yes	160	70	30.4	141	89	38.7	120	110	47.8
	(OR = 3.60)			(OR = 3.50)			(OR = 3.20)
No. SR crimes
0	133	8	5.7	127	14	9.9	116	25	17.7
1–3	65	10	13.3	64	11	14.7	56	19	25.3
4–9	51	15	22.7	43	23	34.8	40	26	39.4
10–29	38	18	32.1	31	25	44.6	24	32	57.1
30+	13	36	73.5	9	40	81.6	6	43	87.8
	(x^2= 102.56)			(x^2= 105.63)			(x^2= 90.40)

Note: C, con = conviction, NC = Not convicted, SR = Self-reported, all significance tests p < .0001.

Table 3. Predicting successful self-reported delinquents.

	% Successful (51.2%)			p values
	Prot	Med	Risk	Succ	Minor	No. SR
Attainment
Nonverbal IQ	60.4	55.9	34.8	.003	.0003	.044
Verbal IQ	73.1	49.2	38.6	.0004	.003	.031
School attainment	67.9	53.6	27.9	.0001	.0005	NS
Self-control
Daring	73.1	50.5	39.1	.0003	.0003	.003
Hyperactivity	59.4	48.8	39.7	.023	.002	.046
Impulsiveness	61.1	54.8	36.8	.008	NS	NS
Socioeconomic
Family income	61.9	54.2	35.4	.004	NS	NS
Housing	57.2	–	41.5	.008	.007	NS
Family size	59.4	58.9	31.4	.0003	.007	NS
School delinquency	67.6	45.2	32.7	.0002	.0003	NS
Parental
Convicted parent	60.8	–	29.3	.0001	.0001	.001
Age of mother	60.7	52.4	39.3	.029	.007	NS
Family
Supervision	65.3	53.5	35.3	.005	.021	NS
Separations	60.0	45.7	35.0	.002	NS	NS
Behaviour
Dishonesty	68.8	54.1	35.8	.001	.0001	.029
Troublesomeness	75.7	50.9	26.5	.0001	.0001	.0001
Minor/serious SR	70.1	–	27.5	.0001	–	.0001
1-5/6+ SR	76.1	–	30.1	.0001	.0001	–

Notes: SR = Self-Report; Prot = Direct protective category; Mid = Middle category; Risk = Risk category, Succ = p values for predictors of successful versus convicted SR delinquents; Minor = p values for predictors of minor versus serious SR delinquents. No. SR = p values for predictors of 1–5 versus 6+ SR crimes, NS = Not Significant.

Table 4. Results of logistic regression analysis.

	LRCS	p	B	SE	p
1-5/6+ SR	45.29	.0001	1.57	0.36	.0001
Minor/serious SR	22.57	.0001	1.22	0.36	.0004
School attainment	11.39	.0004	0.65	0.26	.005
Convicted parent	6.42	.006	0.78	0.41	.030
Daring	4.56	.016	0.47	0.24	.023
Separations	3.21	.037	0.39	0.22	.038

Notes: LRCS = Likelihood Ratio Chi-Squared change; SE = Standard Error; SR = Self-Report.

Did not enter the equation: Troublesomeness, school delinquency.

Data availability statement

The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request and with appropriate safeguards.