NFL Y2K PCA

Figures & data

Table 1. First Two Principal Components Using the American Football Conference (AFC) Data.

Variable	First PC	Second PC
hometop (htop)	0.289154	−0.268395
hometouch (htd)	0.393211	0.103344
opptouch (otd)	−0.099851	0.417011
homeyards (hyd)	0.395883	0.054983
oppyards (oyd)	−0.056191	0.410637
homeratetd (hrtd)	0.362950	0.177276
oppratetd (ortd)	−0.002532	0.409282
homerateyds (hryds)	0.302423	0.233419
opprateyds (oryds)	0.190472	0.320558
oppdrives20 (odriv20)	−0.239607	0.231254
oppdrives50 (odriv50)	−0.321779	0.138639
home1sts (h1sts)	0.397584	0.070433
opp1sts (o1sts)	−0.115843	0.371349

Table 2. Team Rankings Based on the Difference in the First Two Principal Components fromTable 1 for All Teams in the National Football League. Asterisks (*) denote teams that made the NFL 2000 playoffs.

Overall Rank	Team	Conf.	Wins	Overall Score	Offensive Score	Off. Rank	Defensive Score	Def. Rank
1	TEN *	AFC	13	5.38075	1.26479	8	−4.11596	2
2	BAL *	AFC	12	4.66794	0.31373	12	−4.35421	1
3	WAS	NFC	8	2.14909	0.25058	15	−1.89851	5
4	OAK *	AFC	12	1.86825	2.92732	3	1.05907	21
5	MIA *	AFC	11	1.84852	−0.67641	21	−2.52493	3
6	NYG *	NFC	12	1.75330	0.67552	11	−1.07779	7
7	DEN *	AFC	11	1.55059	4.16786	2	2.61728	28
8	PIT	AFC	9	1.51409	−0.42227	19	−1.93636	4
9	NO *	NFC	10	1.23657	1.05029	10	−0.18628	12
10	PHI *	NFC	11	1.19001	0.02921	17	−1.16080	6
11	IND *	AFC	10	1.18673	2.72832	4	1.54159	23
12	BUF	AFC	8	1.02534	0.32804	13	−0.69730	10
13	JAX	AFC	7	0.89662	1.07693	9	0.18031	13
14	NYJ	AFC	9	0.86557	0.23653	16	−0.62903	11
15	TB *	NFC	10	0.60569	−0.29121	18	−0.89690	9
16	STL *	NFC	10	0.27546	4.78642	1	4.51096	31
17	GB	NFC	9	−0.03321	0.31085	14	0.34406	15
18	DET	NFC	9	−0.22774	−1.15149	23	−0.92375	8
19	KC	AFC	7	−0.37763	1.31450	7	1.69212	25
20	MIN *	NFC	11	−0.54273	1.94430	6	2.48703	27
21	SF	NFC	6	−0.88587	2.33624	5	3.22212	30
22	CAR	NFC	7	−1.15463	−0.59112	20	0.56351	17
23	NE	AFC	5	−1.78054	−1.29337	24	0.48717	16
24	DAL	NFC	5	−2.11107	−1.46166	25	0.64941	18
25	CHI	NFC	5	−2.59514	−2.26068	27	0.33447	14
26	ATL	NFC	4	−2.98308	−2.10208	26	0.88099	20
27	SEA	AFC	6	−3.74492	−0.68732	22	3.05760	29
28	CIN	AFC	4	−4.15162	−3.33577	30	0.81585	19
29	SD	AFC	1	−4.65210	−3.03908	29	1.61302	24
30	ARI	NFC	3	−4.84552	−2.47209	28	2.37343	26
31	CLE	AFC	3	−6.09758	−4.90381	31	1.19377	22

Figure 1. Biplot of PC Values inTable 1.

Figure 2a. Plot of Offensive Scores Against Wins.

Figure 2b. Plot of Overall Scores Against Wins.

Figure 2c. Plot of Overall Scores Against Wins.

Table 3. First Principal Components for the AFC Data Using All Variables.

Variable	First PC	Variable	First PC
hometop	0.218719
hometouch	0.134745	opptouch	−0.185692
homeyards	0.136346	oppyards	−0.149335
homeratetd	0.095218	oppratetd	−0.141504
homerateyds	0.029558	opprateyds	−0.006153
home1sts	0.139670	opp1sts	−0.163813
homesacks	0.093923	oppsacks	−0.092164
homeint	0.133793	oppint	−0.084340
homerecover	0.057836	opprecover	0.014744
homekos	−0.227016	oppkos	0.193279
homekoyds	−0.176723	oppkoyds	0.154004
homekoave	0.137286	oppkoave	−0.110405
homekotds	−0.014834	oppkotds	−0.017435
homedrives20	0.148039	oppdrives20	−0.175901
homedrives50	0.168546	oppdrives50	−0.197861
homefga	0.199397	oppfga	−0.203328
homefgm	0.203278	oppfgm	−0.197710
homepuntno	−0.135343	opppuntno	0.110739
homepuntrate	−0.190366	opppuntrate	0.173589
homepuntave	−0.077663	opppuntave	0.101796
homepuntnet	0.021132	opppuntnet	−0.051215
homepunt20	0.113390	opppunt20	−0.020490
homerettds	0.115540	opprettds	−0.031943
homeretyds	0.165704	oppretyds	−0.158089
homefc	−0.024124	oppfc	0.084470
homerets	0.127991	opprets	−0.162967
homepunttb	0.025041	opppunttb	0.054527
homeretave	0.124335	oppretave	−0.082901
homepuntlong	0.003435	opppuntlong	−0.051890
homepuntblock	0.024799	opppuntblock	0.051452

Table 4. Team Rankings Based on the First Principal Component from Table 3 for All Teams in the NFL. Asterisks (*) Denote Teams that Made the NFL 2000 Playoffs.

Rank	Team	Conference	First PC score	Wins
1	BAL *	AFC	6.92874	12
2	TEN *	AFC	6.62203	13
3	OAK *	AFC	3.19638	12
4	DEN *	AFC	3.05194	11
5	MIA *	AFC	2.44269	11
6	GB	NFC	1.56921	9
7	STL *	NFC	1.50917	10
8	PIT	AFC	1.38003	9
9	JAX	AFC	1.30208	7
10	NYG *	NFC	1.26682	12
11	TB *	NFC	1.14953	10
12	IND *	AFC	0.96163	10
13	PHI *	NFC	0.49389	11
14	NO *	NFC	0.40795	10
15	WAS	NFC	0.22149	8
16	DET	NFC	−0.05276	9
17	CAR	NFC	−0.36193	7
18	NE	AFC	−0.47124	5
19	BUF	AFC	−1.19575	8
20	KC	AFC	−1.35185	7
21	NYJ	AFC	−1.48123	9
22	SF	NFC	−1.48244	6
23	DAL	NFC	−1.65470	5
24	MIN *	NFC	−1.69589	11
25	CHI	NFC	−2.40573	5
26	ATL	NFC	−2.58762	4
27	SEA	AFC	−2.78394	6
28	CIN	AFC	−5.20318	4
29	SD	AFC	−5.26384	1
30	ARI	NFC	−5.41074	3
31	CLE	AFC	−8.13448	3

Figure 3. Principal Component Scores Against Wins.

Table 5. First Principal Components Using All Variables and All NFL Teams.

Variable	First PC	Variable	First PC
hometop	0.255711
hometouch	0.135058	opptouch	−0.201184
homeyards	0.131536	oppyards	−0.196629
homeratetd	0.095602	oppratetd	−0.153265
homerateyds	0.024881	opprateyds	−0.043073
home1sts	0.146149	opp1sts	−0.205652
homesacks	0.136492	oppsacks	−0.073768
homeint	0.169915	oppint	−0.106793
homerecover	0.072983	opprecover	0.003678
homekos	−0.237560	oppkos	0.215731
homekoyds	−0.192624	oppkoyds	0.189581
homekoave	0.058840	oppkoave	−0.009941
homekotds	−0.043506	oppkotds	−0.014173
homedrives20	0.151142	oppdrives20	−0.176760
homedrives50	0.188694	oppdrives50	−0.176526
homeFGa	0.135393	oppfga	−0.201820
homeFGM	0.194181	oppfgm	−0.181222
homepuntno	−0.051007	opppuntno	0.153017
homepuntrate	−0.130411	opppuntrate	0.212593
homepuntave	−0.058642	opppuntave	0.104526
homepuntnet	−0.015789	opppuntnet	−0.021425
homepunt20	0.120944	opppunt20	0.029792
homerettds	0.082453	opprettds	−0.018587
homeretyds	0.178650	oppretyds	−0.165508
homefc	0.013974	oppfc	0.016949
homerets	0.142097	opprets	−0.094260
homepunttb	0.054588	opppunttb	0.051486
homeretave	0.114561	oppretave	−0.015596
homepuntlong	0.043231	opppuntlong	−0.007458
homepuntblock	0.011052	opppuntblock	0.065411

Table 6. Team Rankings Based on the First Principal Component from Table 5 for All Teams in the NFL. Asterisks (*) Denote Teams that Made the NFL 2000 Playoffs.

Rank	Team	Conference	First PC score	Wins
1	BAL *	AFC	8.04573	12
2	TEN *	AFC	7.50834	13
3	DEN *	AFC	3.54837	11
4	OAK *	AFC	3.43575	12
5	MIA *	AFC	2.91691	11
6	NYG *	NFC	2.34373	12
7	PIT	AFC	2.31205	9
8	JAX	AFC	2.28250	7
9	TB *	NFC	1.87205	10
10	GB	NFC	1.66451	9
11	NO *	NFC	1.38613	10
12	IND *	AFC	1.26829	10
13	STL *	NFC	1.05026	10
14	PHI *	NFC	0.86671	11
15	WAS	NFC	0.72484	8
16	DET	NFC	0.70963	9
17	BUF	AFC	0.02548	8
18	NE	AFC	−0.33104	5
19	NYJ	AFC	−0.64109	9
20	KC	AFC	−0.79622	7
21	CAR	NFC	−1.31142	7
22	SF	NFC	−1.73040	6
23	MIN *	NFC	−1.80792	11
24	DAL	NFC	−2.08162	5
25	CHI	NFC	−2.39768	5
26	ATL	NFC	−3.04457	4
27	SEA	AFC	−3.81363	6
28	SD	AFC	−4.52281	1
29	CIN	AFC	−5.08288	4
30	ARI	NFC	−6.86933	3
31	CLE	AFC	−7.53067	3

Figure 4. Principal Component Scores Against Wins.

Table 7. First Principal Component Summarizing Offensive Variables for Data from All NFL Teams.

Variable	First PC
hometouch	0.343352
homeyards	0.348787
hometop	0.232946
homeratetd	0.323398
oppsacks	−0.132067
homerateyds	0.288800
homedrives20	0.053379
homedrives50	0.085324
homeFGa	0.119071
homeFGM	0.118911
home1sts	0.355936
home1rate	0.351317
homepuntno	−0.291337
oppint	−0.096390
opprecover	−0.100766
homepuntrate	−0.328446

Table 8. First Principal Component Summarizing Defensive Variables for Data from All NFL Teams.

Variable	First PC
hometop	−.294770
oppyards	0.326010
opptouch	0.303064
homesacks	−.179711
opprateyds	0.179022
oppratetd	0.259483
oppdrives20	0.181012
oppdrives50	0.148804
oppfga	0.221289
oppfgm	0.202965
opp1sts	0.324007
opp1rate	0.332077
opppuntno	−.265742
homeint	−.195805
homerecover	−.111704
opppuntrate	−.318653

Table 9. First Three Principal Components Summarizing Punting Variables for Data from All NFL Teams.

Variable	First PC	Second PC	Third PC
opppuntave	0.021507	0.006500	0.591860
opppuntnet	0.381688	−0.177946	0.290832
opppunttb	−0.003666	−0.038939	0.162348
opppunt20	0.102521	−0.140235	−0.266048
opppuntblock	0.087499	0.222528	0.024679
homepuntave	0.216575	0.523767	−0.017731
homepuntnet	−0.072828	0.519856	−0.101296
homepunttb	0.139907	0.355150	−0.181628
homepunt20	−0.173346	0.180112	0.240860
homepuntblock	−0.229419	−0.116809	0.179845
homefc	−0.046043	−0.054086	−0.522971
oppfc	−0.209811	−0.313148	−0.110353
homeretave	−0.441252	0.182222	0.149668
oppretave	0.431589	0.108961	0.122223
homerettds	−0.377793	0.122072	−0.017254
opprettds	0.333716	−0.140810	−0.100679

Table 10. Team rankings based on a summary of the offensive, defensive, and punting special teams play of each NFL team. The offensive and defensive principal components come from Tables 7 and 8. The punting summary measure consists of the difference of the second and third principal components from Table 9. The total score upon which the ranking is based consists of the offensive score minus the defensive score minus one-half the punting special teams score. Asterisks (*) denote teams that made the NFL 2000 playoffs.

Rank	Team	League	Wins	Total score	Off. score	Def. score	Punting score
1	TEN *	AFC	13	8.1776	1.05733	−6.83163	0.57723
2	OAK *	AFC	12	5.6500	3.64252	−0.80435	2.40616
3	BAL *	AFC	12	5.4724	0.50198	−6.34898	−2.75720
4	DEN *	AFC	11	4.5540	5.32779	−0.54343	−2.63447
5	STL *	NFC	10	3.8212	6.30485	2.39239	−0.18245
6	NYG *	NFC	12	3.3699	1.01238	−2.74760	−0.78009
7	IND *	AFC	10	3.0062	3.26709	0.42423	0.32670
8	JAX	AFC	7	2.9492	1.52267	−1.93469	−1.01628
9	NYJ	AFC	9	2.8705	0.40729	−1.03838	2.84974
10	MIA *	AFC	11	2.8688	−1.70385	−2.72417	3.69706
11	NO *	NFC	10	3.0257	1.24803	−1.90010	−0.24487
12	PHI *	NFC	11	2.1248	−0.30602	−1.01290	2.83591
13	TB *	NFC	10	2.2483	−0.26549	−1.66600	1.69555
14	MIN *	NFC	11	1.7890	2.29798	2.73073	4.44349
15	PIT	AFC	9	1.5447	−0.48368	−1.87234	0.31219
16	GB	NFC	9	1.4350	1.02025	−1.21816	−1.60686
17	WAS	NFC	8	0.5425	0.31602	−1.80931	−3.16574
18	BUF	AFC	8	−0.1661	−0.06044	−1.70203	−3.61544
19	DET	NFC	9	−0.4335	−1.80718	−0.80075	1.14591
20	KC	AFC	7	−0.8891	0.77321	1.13140	−1.06190
21	NE	AFC	5	−2.1315	−1.65604	1.15651	1.36214
22	DAL	NFC	5	−2.0687	−0.96984	1.92338	1.64898
23	SF	NFC	6	−2.5398	2.53445	3.06935	−4.00972
24	CAR	NFC	7	−3.4113	−0.25456	1.59191	−3.12961
25	CHI	NFC	5	−3.6990	−3.40067	0.23609	−0.12443
26	SD	AFC	1	−4.5464	−3.27735	2.14002	1.74198
27	ATL	NFC	4	−4.8164	−2.61938	2.18382	−0.02650
28	SEA	AFC	6	−6.0889	−1.15941	4.24062	−1.37769
29	CIN	AFC	4	−6.6120	−4.14713	2.73793	0.54603
30	ARI	NFC	3	−7.1163	−2.28034	4.88523	0.09852
31	CLE	AFC	3	−10.9308	−6.84243	4.11121	0.04566

Figure 5a. Offensive PC Scores Against Wins.

Figure 5b. Defensive PC Scores Against Wins.

Figure 5c. Punting PC Scores Against Wins.

Figure 5d. Punting PC Scores Against Wins.