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Original Articles

Pedigrees, Prizes, and Prisoners: The Misuse of Conditional Probability

Figures & data

Figure 1: An incomplete genetic pedigree.

Figure 1: An incomplete genetic pedigree.

Figure 2: A tree diagram for our pedigree.

Figure 2: A tree diagram for our pedigree.

Figure 3: The sample space of outcomes for our pedigree, with associated probabilities.

Figure 3: The sample space of outcomes for our pedigree, with associated probabilities.

Figure 4: Incorrect application of conditional probability.

Figure 4: Incorrect application of conditional probability.

Figure 5: Tree diagram for the Monty Hall Problem.

Figure 5: Tree diagram for the Monty Hall Problem.

Figure 6: Sample space diagram for the Monty Hall Problem.

Figure 6: Sample space diagram for the Monty Hall Problem.

Figure 7: Incorrect revision of the conditional probabilities.

Figure 7: Incorrect revision of the conditional probabilities.

Figure 8. A tree diagram for The Prisoner's Paradox.

Figure 8. A tree diagram for The Prisoner's Paradox.

Figure 9: Correct sample space for The Prisoner's Paradox.

Figure 9: Correct sample space for The Prisoner's Paradox.

Figure 10: Tree diagram for the revised Monty Hall Problem.

Figure 10: Tree diagram for the revised Monty Hall Problem.

Figure 11: Sample space diagram for the revised Monty Hall Problem.

Figure 11: Sample space diagram for the revised Monty Hall Problem.

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