Investigating College Students' Reasoning With Messages of Risk and Causation

Figures & data

Table 1. A Toulmin breakdown of a student's response.

Claim	Data	Warrant	Backing
The author did not present sufficient evidence to support his claim.	The author did not present statistics or links to studies.	Studies are what qualify as sufficient evidence in discussing cancer.	Studies and statistics are trustworthy.

Table 2. A Toulmin breakdown of an “expert” response.

Claim	Data	Warrant	Backing
The author did not present sufficient evidence to support his claim.	The author did not acknowledge the complexity of the issue.	Recognition of complexity is important for argumentation.	All-or-nothing thinking is inappropriate for sound arguments.
	The author's comparison of various risks is flawed.	Different substances or activities pose different types of risk.	Comparing distinct things merits a discussion of their differences.

Table 3. Prominent claims, data, warrants, and backings from the sample responses.

Claims	Data	Warrants	Backings
(A) The author provided sufficient evidence to support his claim	(1) The author discusses how various things are cancer-causing	(A) A discussion of “facts” qualifies as evidence	(1) Published news articles contain trustworthy information
(B) The author provided some evidence, not enough to support his claim	(2) Common sense indicates that nearly everything can kill you; the author discusses what most Americans already know	(B) Harkening to common sense provides for evidence in an argument	(2) Commonly known things are true
(C) The author did not provide sufficient evidence to support his claim	(3) The author argues his opinion persuasively^1	(C) Persuasive writing qualifies as evidence	(3) Numbers and scientific research are trustworthy
	(4) The author did not present enough statistics or links	(D) Links and references to research studies are necessary for making a valid argument

Table 4. Common argument structures (five responses or more).

Argument variation	Meaning of variation	Percentage of the 152 with that variation
A1A1	By discussing the various things that are linked with cancer, the author supports his argument that we should live without concern for studies that discuss carcinogens. We should live life to the fullest.	42% (64)
A12AB12	By discussing the various things that are linked with cancer—most of which we already know—the author supports his argument that we should live without concern for studies that discuss carcinogens. As most people already know, we should live life to the fullest.	6% (9)
A1A13	By discussing the various things that are linked with cancer—and notably including links to various studies—the author supports his argument that we should live without concern for studies that discuss carcinogens. We should live to the fullest.	6% (9)
A13AD13	Though he would have benefited from including more statistics and references, this is an opinion piece, and accordingly, the author successfully used a number of examples to support his argument that we should live without concern for studies that discuss carcinogens. We should live life to the fullest.	4% (6)
B14AD13	The author makes quality points in describing why we should live life to the fullest and without concern for studies that discuss carcinogens; however, there were not enough references or “hard” evidence to adequately support his argument.	23% (35)
C14D3	The author provides his opinion and discusses various things supposedly linked with cancer, but by not including references or scientific evidence, his argument is not valid.	3% (5)
C4D3	The author provides his opinion, not including references or scientific evidence in favor of his argument.	3% (5)
Other	N/A	13% (19)

Table 5. Common argument structures (five responses or more).

Sufficiency of evidence for author's claim	Percent in agreement with author's message
Certain sufficiency	100% (98/98)
Somewhat sufficient	93% (39/42)
Insufficient	67% (8/12)