A Web Simulator to Assist in the Teaching of Bayes’ Theorem

Figures & data

Fig. 1 Initial screen of simulator.

Fig. 2 Simulator screen after one correct but unsuccessful search.

Fig. 3 Breakdown on grades in pre- and post-test according to use of simulator.

Fig. 4 Individual performances in pre- and post-test according to use of simulator and score obtained. Each point is color-coded reflecting the score obtained when using the simulator (right legend), with students who did not use it shown in gray.

Fig. 5 Breakdown of grades in pre- and post-test according to use of simulator per group. Each point is color-coded reflecting the score obtained when using the simulator (right legend), with students who did not use it shown in gray.

Table 1 Effect on Grade of use of simulator.

	Model 1	Model 2	Model 3
(Intercept)	5.60${}^{***}$	5.61${}^{***}$	5.25${}^{***}$
	(0.18)	(0.18)	(0.22)
RepYES	1.24${}^{***}$	0.99${}^{***}$	1.04${}^{***}$
	(0.22)	(0.24)	(0.24)
Used.simYES		1.08${}^{*}$	0.75
		(0.44)	(0.45)
GroupADEDE			2.12${}^{***}$
			(0.48)
GroupECO			0.40
			(0.32)
AIC	2083.28	2079.17	2064.15
BIC	2099.53	2099.49	2092.60
Log-likelihood	–1037.64	–1034.58	–1025.08
Num. obs.	430	430	430
Num. groups: ID	241	241	241
Var: ID (Intercept)	2.66	2.52	2.13
Var: Residual	5.04	5.06	5.07

NOTE:

*** $p<0.001,$

** $p<0.01$, and

* $p<0.05$.

Table 2 Comparison of models.

Model	AIC	BIC	logLik	Deviance	Chisq	Pr($>$Chisq)
1	2080.2	2096.4	−1036.1	2072.2
2	2076.2	2096.6	−1033.1	2066.2	5.9221	0.01495${}^{*}$
3	2061.0	2089.4	−1023.5	2047.0	19.2884	6.48e-05${}^{***}$

Fig. 6 Breakdown of grades in pre- and post-test according to perceived usefulness of the simulator. Students responded that it helped$\dots$

Fig. 7 Breakdown of grades in pre- and post-test according to time spent using the simulator.