Predicting the Kentucky Derby Winner! Sort of

Figures & data

Fig. 1 Timeplot of winning time of Kentucky Derby (through 2018).

Fig. 2 Graph of speed versus year with LOESS smoother and residual plots from linear model.

Fig. 3 Graph of speed versus year and quadratic models of speed versus year and versus year – mean(year).

Fig. 4 Linear, quadratic, and shifted log transformation of speed versus year - 1874.

Fig. 5 Quadratic model with separate fits for each track condition.

Table

Original condition	Coded condition
Dusty	Good
Fast	Fast
Good	Good
Heavy	Slow
Muddy	Slow
Sloppy	Slow
Slow	Slow