“Swinging on a Pendulum”

Abstract

The article aims to explain Armenia’s foreign policy shift from its pre-signature of the Association Agreement (AA)/Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) with the European Union (EU) in favor of joining the Customs Union (CU)/Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). It uncovers the factors in different policy spheres by examining data and scores, and draws on public opinion to investigate whether it was in sync with the presidential announcement. While Armenia is “swinging on a pendulum,” the study considers the challenges of being a member of the EEU and the repercussions for the country’s relations with the EU.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

A draft of this article was presented at the conference “To the East of Europe: Challenges and Opportunities,” held at the University of Padova, Padova, Italy, on September 28–29, 2015. The author is grateful to Professor Dr. Leonardo Asta and Dr. Nargis Kassenova for their feedback, as well as to the editor of this journal and the anonymous reviewers for their in-depth comments.

FUNDING

The research for this article was supported by the European Commission under the Jean Monnet Chair project of the Lifelong Learning Program. The author was previously Assistant Professor and Jean Monnet Chair of European Studies at the American University of Armenia.

Notes

1. Integration “with” is hereby defined along the lines of “creation and maintenance of intense and diversified patterns of interaction” (a functional definition proposed by Wallace (1990, 9). Integration “into” fits the classical definition proposed by Haas (1958, 16), namely, “a process whereby political actors in several distinct national settings are persuaded to shift their loyalties, expectations and political activities to a new center whose institutions possess or demand jurisdiction over the pre-existing national states.”

2. Interview, EU Delegation to the Republic of Armenia, May 8, 2015, Yerevan.

3. In Armenia only a few hundred people—a small number compared to thousands on Maidan in Ukraine—protested against the presidential decision on September 4, 2013. Moreover, the protest lasted for only a day, as compared to around seven months in Ukraine.

4. The Gabala radar site served for detection of missiles from Iran, Turkey, Iraq, India, and the Middle East. Based on a ten-year lease signed in 2002, Azerbaijan allowed the presence of 1,500 Russian troops, which withdrew after Azerbaijan demanded 300 million USD instead of the previous 7 million per year (Nichol 2014, 11).

5. Besides the co-chairs, the Minsk Group comprises Sweden, Germany, Italy, Finland, as well as Belarus and Turkey as participating states.

6. In the Baku–Ceyhan oil pipeline consortium, BP holds 30.1 percent of the shares, and ENI Italy and the French TotalFinaElf 5 percent. In the Baku–Erzrum gas pipeline, BP has 25.5 percent, TotalFinaElf, and Italian Agip with Russian Lukoil, 10 percent each. BP holds a 34.1 percent share in the Chirag–Guneshli oil fields. Together with TotalFinaElf (10 percent) and LUKAgip (10 percent), BP holds a 25.5 percent share in the Shah Deniz gas field. With the construction of TANAP having begun in March 2015, SOCAR (58 percent), Botas (30 percent), BP (12 percent) are the main shareholders. While the construction of TAP is to begin in 2016, BP, SOCAR, and Statoil hold 20 percent each, Belgian Fluxys (16 percent), Total (10 percent), German E.O.N (9 percent), and Switzerland’s Axpo (5 percent); in 2014 Fluxys (19 percent), Spain’s Enagas (16 percent) have stakes.

7. The loan was provided during the “Electric Yerevan” protests against the 16 percent rise of electricity prices announced in June 2015. With the electricity grid controlled by Russian Inter-RAO, the civic activists pointed out to corruption and mismanagement. As a result, the government conceded by launching an audit, fining Inter-RAO and starting an investigation into the cases of abuse of power by the police against the protestors (Luxmoore 2015).

8. Armenia’s trade with the EU has been dominated by import of primary products, especially base metals and articles thereof, and exports by manufactures, especially, machinery and appliances (European Commission 2015). Overall, the EU’s bilateral trade with Armenia is low: in 2014 Armenia ranked as the EU’s 107th trade partner, specifically, 101st in terms of exports and 109th for imports (ibid.).

9. With Kazakhstan being a resource country, a price of $268/kcm was offered to Ukraine in November 2013 and $247/kcm in June 2015 (compared to more than $400/kcm paid previously) (Novac, 2014, Reuters, 2015).

10. The Russian Gazprom negotiates gas prices with EU member states individually. This creates variation with the following prices: Germany paid $379/kcm, Finland $385, France $394, Austria $397, Latvia $416, Estonia $442, Lithuania $500, Bulgaria $501, and Poland paid $526 (Radio Free Liberty, Radio Europe, 2014, One Europe, 2015, Novac, 2014).

11. This amounted to €80.7.

12. The two other priority areas were “trade and investment, regulatory alignment and reform” with 20–25 percent, and socio-economic reform and sustainable development with 40–45 percent.

13. The only other remaining one is the “private sector development” with 35 percent of the total sum.

14. Kyrgyzstan’s is 5.93 as yet another semi-consolidated authoritarian regime; Russia (6.46), Kazakhstan (6.61), and Belarus (6.71) are rated as consolidated authoritarian regimes (FreedomHouse, 2015b).

15. The Armenian genocide carried out by the Ottoman empire in 1915–1918 was the main cause of the dispersion of Armenians worldwide. Currently it is estimated that there are Armenians living in 109 out of 192 countries of the world.

16. While it has not been clear what long-term in contrast to medium-term implies, further enlargement may take place (if at all) only after the western Balkan countries and Turkey as (potential) candidates accede.

17. These are classified according to the content of the projects, which do not follow EU’s own categories.

18. “Absorption capacity” here denotes possession of an administrative machinery to handle funding effectively and spend it as designated.

Additional information

Funding

The research for this article was supported by the European Commission under the Jean Monnet Chair project of the Lifelong Learning Program. The author was previously Assistant Professor and Jean Monnet Chair of European Studies at the American University of Armenia.