From Nomadic Traditionalists to Sedentary Scripturalists?

Figures & data

TABLE 1 Religiosity Questions

Type	Question	Response Range	Question Values
Baseline measures	Do you believe in God, Allah, and his prophet Muhammed?	No/Yes	0/1
	How important is religion in your life?	Not at all – Very important	0–3
	How much does your life reflect the Hadith and Sunna?	Not at all – A lot	0–3
Religious practices	On average, how often do you attend mosque for salah and Jum’ah Prayer?	Never – More than once a week	0–5
	Outside of attending religious services how often do you pray?	Never – Several times a day	0–6
	Do you pray all five salah every day?	No/Yes	0/1
	Have you ever made a pilgrimage to Mecca?	No/Yes	0/1
	Do you give zakat?	No/Yes	0/1
	Do you fast during Ramadan?	No/Yes	0/1
	How often do you read or listen to the Koran?	Never – Every day	0–4
Traditionalist beliefs	Are the following acceptable under Islam?
	● pilgrimage to shrines of Muslim saints?● devotional dancing?● reciting poetry or singing in praise of Allah?● speaking to the souls of dead ancestors to appeal for their aid?● making offerings to benevolent jinns?● using sorcery to protect family or neighbors from evil forces?	Yes/NoYes/NoYes/NoYes/NoYes/NoYes/No	0/10/10/10/10/10/1

TABLE 2 Radicalism Questions

Type	Question	Response Range	QuestionValues
Religious rigidity	How comfortable would you be if a daughter of yours married a Christian?	Very comfortable – Not at all comfortable	0–4
	Which statement comes closer to your own views?
	● Islam is the one, true faith leading to eternal life in heaven. Many religions can lead to eternal life in heaven.	Many religions…; It depends; Islam is the one, true faith	0–2
	● There is only one true way to interpret the teachings of my religion. There is more than one way.	More than one way…; It depends; Only one true way…	0–2
	● The sharia should be open to multiple interpretations. There is only one true understanding of the sharia.	Should be open…; It depends; Only one true understanding…	0–2
Political beliefs	How much influence should religious leaders have in political matters?^†	No influence at all – Large influence	0–3
	Do you favor or oppose making the sharia the law of the land in your country?^†	Oppose/Favor	0/1
Punitive measures	Should a man be put to death for having premarital sex or an affair?^††	Never justified – Often justified	0–3
	Should a woman be put to death for having premarital sex or an affair?^††	Never justified – Often justified	0–3
	Do you favor or oppose the death penalty for people who leave the Muslim religion?^†	Oppose/Favor	0/1
	Do you favor or oppose punishments like whippings and cutting off hands for crimes such as theft and robbery?^†	Oppose/Favor	0/1
	Do you favor or oppose stoning people who commit adultery?^†	Oppose/Favor	0/1
Violence	Do you think suicide bombing and other forms of violence against civilian targets is justified in order to defend Islam from its enemies?^†	Never justified – Often justified	0–3

Note:^† Question not asked in Uzbekistan. ^†† Uzbekistani data excluded due to difference in question wording.

TABLE 3 Religiosity ANOVAs

		Mean
Question	Scale	Kazakh	Kyrgyz	Tajik	Uzbek	All
Belief in Allah	0/1	0.87^a,b,c	0.96^a,d,e	0.99^b,d,f	0.99^c,e,f	0.96
Importance of religion	0–3	1.92^a,b,c	2.33^a,d,e	2.48^b,d,f	2.10^c,e,f	2.22
Life reflects Hadith and Sunna	0–3	1.36^a,b,c	1.70^a,e	1.74^b,f	1.91^c,e,f	1.72
Mosque attendance	0–5	1.4^b,c	1.30^d,e	1.72^b,d,f	0.99^c,e,f	1.35
Prayer frequency	0–6	1.51^a,b,c	2.06^a,d	3.62^b,d,f	2.30^c,f	2.46
Pray all five salah	0/1	0.02^a,b,c	0.10^a,d,e	0.45^b,d,f	0.21^c,e,f	0.22
Hajji	0/1	0.01^b	0.02^d	0.04^b,d,f	0.03^,f	0.02
Give zakat	0/1	0.38^a,b,c	0.78^a,d,e	0.73^b,d,f	0.73^c,e,f	0.67
Fast during Ramadan	0/1	0.25^a,b,c	0.48^a,d,e	0.90^b,d,f	0.63^c,e,f	0.60
Read Koran	0–4	1.24^a,b	2.16^a,d,e	1.79^b,d,f	1.31^e,f	1.62
Are the following acceptable under Islam? (yes=0; no=1)● shrine pilgrimage● devotional dancing● reciting poetry or singing● speaking to the souls of ancestors● offerings to jinns● sorcery for protection	0/10/10/10/10/10/1	0.07^a0.58^a,c0.24^a,c0.35^a,b,c0.64^a,b,c0.72^a,b,c	0.21^a,d,e0.68^a,d0.36^a,d,e0.53^a0.79^a0.79^a,d,e	0.08^d0.58^d0.24^d0.56^b,f0.79^b,f0.89^b,d,f	0.06^e0.72^c0.55^c,e0.49^c,f0.83^c,f0.86^c,e,f	0.100.650.360.490.770.83

Notes:^a = statistically significant difference between Kazakh and Kyrgyz, p ≤ 0.01 (one-way ANOVA).

^b = statistically significant difference between Kazakh and Tajik, p ≤ 0.01 (one-way ANOVA).

^c = statistically significant difference between Kazakh and Uzbek, p ≤ 0.01 (one-way ANOVA).

^d = statistically significant difference between Kyrgyz and Tajik, p ≤ 0.01 (one-way ANOVA).

^e = statistically significant difference between Kyrgyz and Uzbek, p ≤ 0.01 (one-way ANOVA).

^f = statistically significant difference between Tajik and Uzbek, p ≤ 0.01 (one-way ANOVA).

TABLE 4 Simplified Results of Religiosity ANOVAs

Question	Rank Order (Higher Rank = More Religious)
Do you believe in God, Allah, and his prophet Muhammed?	Tajik Uzbek	›	Kyrgyz	›	Kazakh
How important is religion in your life?	Tajik	›	Uzbek	›	Kyrgyz	›	Kazakh
How much does your life reflect the Hadith and Sunna?	Uzbek	›	Kyrgyz Tajik	›	Kazakh
On average, how often do you attend mosque?	Tajik	›	Kazakh Kyrgyz	›	Uzbek
Outside of attending religious services how often do you pray?	Tajik	›	Kyrgyz Uzbek	›	Kazakh
Do you pray all five salah every day?	Tajik	›	Uzbek	›	Kyrgyz	›	Kazakh
Have you ever made a pilgrimage to Mecca?	Tajik	›	Kazakh Kyrgyz Uzbek
Do you give zakat?	Kyrgyz	›	Tajik Uzbek	›	Kazakh
Do you fast during Ramadan?	Tajik	›	Uzbek	›	Kyrgyz	›	Kazakh
How often do you read or listen to the Koran?	Kyrgyz	›	Tajik	›	Kazakh Uzbek
Are the following acceptable under Islam? (yes=0; no=1)
• pilgrimage to shrines of Muslim saints?	Kyrgyz	›	Kazkah Tajik Uzbek
• devotional dancing?	Kyrgyz Uzbek	›	Kazakh Tajik
• reciting poetry or singing in praise of Allah?	Uzbek	›	Kyrgyz	›	Kazakh Tajik
• speaking to the souls of dead ancestors to appeal for their aid?	Kyrgyz Tajik Uzbek	›	Kazakh
• making offerings to benevolent jinns?	Kyrgyz Tajik Uzbek	›	Kazakh
• using sorcery to protect family or neighbors from evil forces	Tajik Uzbek	›	Kyrgyz	›	Kazakh

TABLE 5 Radicalism ANOVAs

		Mean
Question	Scale	Kazakh	Kyrgyz	Tajik	Uzbek	All
Comfort with daughter marrying a Christian	0–4	2.45^a,b,c	2.93^a,d,e	3.41^b,d	3.36^c,e	3.10
Which statement comes closer to your views?
• Islam is the one, true faith. Many religions can lead to heaven.	0–2	0.88^a,b,c	1.46^a,d,e	1.77^b,d,f	1.64^c,e,f	0.83
• There is one true way to interpret my religion. There is more than one way.	0–2	1.11^a,b,c	1.43^a,d,e	1.69^b,d	1.61^c,e	1.50
• Sharia should be open to interpretations. There is one true understanding.	0–2	1.11^a,b	1.25^a,d	1.53^b,d,f	1.22^f	1.30
Influence of religious leaders in political matters	0–3	0.93^a,c	1.31^a,d,e	1.02^d	1.13^c,e	1.10
Favor or oppose making sharia the law of the land	0–1	0.12^a,b,c	0.37^a	0.34^b	0.39^c	0.30
Man put to death for premarital sex or affair	0–3	0.20^a,b,c	0.65^a,d	0.76^b,d,f	0.61^c,f	0.57
Woman put to death for premarital sex or affair	0–3	0.19^a,b,c	0.68^a,d	0.85^b,d,f	0.60^c,f	0.61
Favor or oppose death penalty for leaving Islam	0–1	0.01^a,b,c	0.10^a	0.10^b	0.08^c	0.07
Favor or oppose punishments like cutting off hands	0–1	0.13^a,b,c	0.38^a,d,e	0.23^b,d	0.25^c,e	0.25
Favor or oppose stoning for adultery	0–1	0.06^a,b,c	0.29^a,e	0.26^b	0.21^c,e	0.21
Violence against civilians justified to defend Islam	0–3	0.08^a,c	0.41^a,d,e	0.14^d,f	0.26^c,e,f	0.22

Note:^a = statistically significant difference between Kazakh and Kyrgyz, p ≤ 0.01 (one-way ANOVA).

^b = statistically significant difference between Kazakh and Tajik, p ≤ 0.01 (one-way ANOVA).

^c = statistically significant difference between Kazakh and Uzbek, p ≤ 0.01 (one-way ANOVA).

^d = statistically significant difference between Kyrgyz and Tajik, p ≤ 0.01 (one-way ANOVA).

^e = statistically significant difference between Kyrgyz and Uzbek, p ≤ 0.01 (one-way ANOVA).

^f = statistically significant difference between Tajik and Uzbek, p ≤ 0.01 (one-way ANOVA).

TABLE 6 Simplified Results of Radicalism ANOVAs

Question	Rank Order (Higher Rank = Less Moderate)
How comfortable would you be if a daughter of yours married a Christian?	Tajik Uzbek	›	Kyrgyz	›	Kazakh
Which statement comes closer to your own views?
• Islam is the one, true faith. Many religions can lead to heaven.	Tajik	›	Uzbek	›	Kyrgyz	›	Kazakh
• There is one true way to interpret the teachings of my religion. There is more than one way.	Tajik Uzbek	›	Kyrgyz	›	Kazakh
• The sharia should be open to multiple interpretations. There is one true understanding.	Tajik	›	Kyrgyz Uzbek	›	Kazakh
How much influence should religious leaders have in political matters?	Kyrgyz	›	Tajik Uzbek	›	Kazakh
Do you favor or oppose making the sharia the law of the land in your country?	Kyrgyz Tajik Uzbek	›	Kazakh
Should a man be put to death for having premarital sex or an affair?	Tajik	›	Kyrgyz Uzbek	›	Kazakh
Should a woman be put to death for having premarital sex or an affair?	Tajik	›	Kyrgyz Uzbek	›	Kazakh
Do you favor or oppose the death penalty for people who leave the Muslim religion?	Kyrgyz Tajik Uzbek	›	Kazakh
Do you favor or oppose punishments like whippings and cutting off hands for crimes such as theft and robbery?	Kyrgyz	›	Tajik Uzbek	›	Kazakh
Do you favor or oppose stoning people who commit adultery?	Kyrgyz Tajik	›	Uzbek	›	Kazakh
Do you think suicide bombing and other violence against civilian targets is justified in order to defend Islam from its enemies?	Kyrgyz	›	Uzbek	›	Kazakh Tajik

TABLE 7 Support for Violence against Civilians in the Name of Islam, Logit Regression Models

	Model 1 (KZ, KY, TJ)	Model 2 (KZ, KY)
	Coefficient (standard error)	Coefficient (standard error)
Kyrgyzstan^†	2.67 (1.20)*	2.66 (1.33)*
Tajikistan	2.49 (3.18)	–
Kazakh^††	2.76 (3.18)	11.73 (2922.90)
Kyrgyz	1.87 (3.18)	10.72 (2922.89)
Uzbek	–0.32 (0.64)	–1.00 (3002.42)
Kyrgyzstan * Uzbek	2.00 (3.18)	11.65 (686.436)
Belief in Allah	–1.30 (0.35) ***	–1.27 (0.45)**
Importance of religion
– Not too important	–0.09 (1.10)	–0.66 (1.17)
– Somewhat important	0.16 (1.07)	–0.30 (1.13)
– Very important	–0.02 (1.08)	–0.75 (1.14)
Prayer frequency	0.09 (0.04)*	0.11 (0.05)*
Personal economic situation
– Somewhat bad	–0.68 (0.82)	–0.24 (1.16)
– Somewhat good	0.22 (0.77)	1.05 (1.10)
– Very good	0.24 (0.84)	1.44 (1.19)
Ladder of Life	0.10 (0.06)	–.08 (0.08)
Future prospects	–0.15 (0.05)*	–.29 (0.07)***
Economy (country)	0.12 (0.10)
– Somewhat bad	0.05 (0.34)	0.12 (0.38)
– Somewhat good	0.13 (0.33)	0.25 (0.38)
– Very good	0.68 (0.48)	0.81 (0.63)
Unemployment (country)
– Small problem	–0.26 (1.24)	0.20 (1.53)
– Moderately big problem	–0.15 (1.11)	0.55 (1.41)
– Very big problem	0.26 (1.10)	0.83 (1.38)
Political corruption (country)
– Small problem	1.25 (1.09)	0.91 (1.28)
– Moderately big problem	1.16 (1.06)	1.13 (1.22)
– Very big problem	1.18 (1.05)	1.31 (1.21)
Say in government
– Mostly disagree	–1.01 (0.38)**	–1.28 (0.45)**
– Mostly agree	0.12 (0.30)	–0.67 (0.37)
– Completely agree	–0.49 (0.34)	–1.38 (0.43)***
Urban	–0.97 (0.25)***	–1.11 (0.31)***
Christian hostility
– Very few	–	0.97 (0.52)
– Just some	–	1.97 (0.52)***
– Many	–	3.70 (0.55)***
– Most	–	3.52 (0.73)***
Female	0.06 (0.18)	–0.15 (0.23)
Age	–0.00 (0.01)	–0.00 (0.01)
Education	–0.00 (0.05)	–0.13 (0.07)
N=	2759	1602
Pseudo R^2=	0.1884	0.3152

Note:^†Kazakhstan serves as the reference category. ^††Tajik serves as reference category.*p ≤ 0.05, **p ≤ 0.01, ***p ≤ 0.00

TABLE 8 Predicted Probabilities

Variable	Level	Predicted Probability, Violence is Sometimes or Often Justified
		Model 1	Model 2
Kyrgyzstan	0 (Kazakhstan)	0.0117	0.1082
	1 (Kyrgyzstan)	0.1365***	0.2039***
Belief in Allah	0 (Do not believe)	0.3400***	0.0288^***†
	1 (Do believe)	0.1365***	0.0143^***†
Prayer frequency	0 (Never)	0.0441***	np
	3 (Once a week)	0.0560***	np
	7 (All five salah)	0.0761***	np
Future prospects	-10	0.2050*	np
	0	0.0678***	np
	9	0.0200*	np
Say in government	0 (Completely disagree)	0.1646***	0.4327^*††
	1 (Mostly disagree)	0.0696***	0.2577^††
	2 (Mostly agree)	0.1802***	0.3307^††
	3 (Completely agree)	0.1103***	0.2476
Urban	0 (Rural)	0.1365***	0.2039***
	1 (Urban)	0.0591***	0.1426***
Christian hostility	0 (None)	–	0.1648^*††
	1 (Very few)	–	0.2455^††
	2 (Just some)	–	0.3874^††
	3 (Many)	–	0.7045^**††
	4 (Most)	–	0.6726^**††

Note:Unless otherwise noted, probabilities are for male, rural Kyrgyz respondents, with all other values held at their mean. np: Too few observations to generate a prediction.

^†Probability for Uzbeks. ^††Probability for Kazakhs.

*p ≤ 0.05, **p ≤ 0.01, ***p ≤ 0.001

TABLE 9 Political and Religious Repression

	Kazakhstan	Kyrgyzstan	Tajikistan	Uzbekistan
Political Freedom^†	5.5	5.0	5.5	7.0
Civil Liberties^†	5.0	5.0	5.0	7.0
Government Regulation of Religion^††	7.1	4.9	6.0	8.8
Religious Persecution^††	3.0	1.0	1.0	6.0

Note:^†Higher scores indicate less freedom. Source: Freedom House. 2012. Freedom in the World. https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/freedom-world-2012.^††Higher scores indicate greater repression. Source: Association of Religion Data Archives. www.thearda.com.