Research on the Risk of Water Shortages and the Carrying Capacity of Water Resources in Yiwu, China

ABSTRACT

The carrying capacity of water resources is defined as the maximum volume of water suitable for supporting human activity in certain stages of social development that can be borne by water resources under favorable ecological conditions. The results of other studies that have been performed in Yiwu City, China, indicate that water shortages in this city are not related to different water sources, but can be classified in terms of water quality and conservation. To verify the results of the theoretical evaluation presented in this article, the authors simulate changes in the carrying capacity of water resources under the conditions of future water management policies. This simulation employs system dynamics (SD) modeling, based on historical data collected by the city over the past 20 years and governmental plans to raise living standards before year 2020. This article indicates that both singularly pursuing fast economic development at the expense of the environment and promoting environmental protection by suppressing economic development are undesirable in Yiwu. Simultaneously promoting both economic development and environmental protection is likely to produce better overall results. However, if the present water supply level does not increase in the near future, Yiwu's water supply will be unable to satisfy the city's requirements, even under this scheme. In this case, the carrying capacity of water resources in the region can be effectively improved only by promoting more efficient use of water and water conservation schemes, as well as strengthening long-term investment in environmental protection.

Key Words:

• water shortage
• information diffusion
• risk assessment
• system dynamics
• carrying capacity of water resources
• guaranteed rate

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40771044) and the Zhejiang Provincial Science and Technology Foundation of China (No. 2006C23066).