Recalled Exposure to COVID-19 Public Education Campaign Advertisements Predicts COVID-19 Vaccine Confidence

Figures & data

Table 1. Sociodemographic Characteristics of the Study Sample as of January–February 2021

	Weighted %	Unweighted %	Frequency
Age
18–24	9.4%	5.0%	171
25–44	34.3%	42.3%	1,459
45–64	34.3%	30.9%	1,066
65 and older	22.0%	21.8%	750
Gender
Male	48.2%	48.6%	1,674
Female	51.8%	51.4%	1,772
Race/Ethnicity
Non-Hispanic White	69.4%	67.2%	2,315
Non-Hispanic Black	13.0%	11.3%	388
Hispanic or Latino	17.6%	21.6%	743
Education
No college	36.4%	20.4%	704
Some college	29.2%	45.1%	1,555
Bachelor’s degree or above	34.3%	34.4%	1,187
Annual Household Income
Less than $50,000	44.6%	43.2%	1,490
$50,000–$74,999	20.6%	21.5%	740
$75,000–$99,999	13.4%	13.8%	476
$100,000 or more	21.4%	21.5%	740
Political Ideology
Liberal	27.7%	30.6%	1,053
Moderate	37.1%	35.6%	1,228
Conservative	35.2%	33.8%	1,165
U.S. Census Region
Northeast	18.1%	14.5%	500
Midwest	21.5%	25.5%	880
South	38.6%	35.0%	1,206
West	21.8%	25.0%	860
Rurality
Urban	37.2%	41.5%	1,431
Suburban	44.7%	42.0%	1,446
Rural	18.1%	16.5%	569
Essential Worker
Non-essential worker	67.3%	64.5%	2,223
Essential worker	32.7%	35.5%	1,223
Preexisting Health Condition
No health condition	34.7%	35.3%	1,216
Health condition	65.3%	64.7%	2,230

Note. Percentages may not sum to 100% due to rounding. Due to small sample sizes, respondents who reported their race/ethnicity as American Indian or Alaska Native, non-Hispanic Asian American or Pacific Islander, and non-Hispanic Multiple Races or Other Identity were omitted from analyses and are thus not reported in this table.

Table 2. Vaccine Confidence, Campaign Recall, and Fictional Campaign Recall Among the Study Sample

	CABS Wave
	Wave 1	Wave 2	Wave 3
	Jan–Feb 2021	May–June 2021	Sept–Nov 2021
Vaccine Confidence
Vaccine Refuser
Weighted Percentage	17.7%	15.6%	10.2%
Unweighted Percentage	16.4%	13.5%	11.2%
Frequency	566	463	355
Movable Middle
Weighted Percentage	35.8%	19.7%	10.3%
Unweighted Percentage	34.6%	16.1%	11.2%
Frequency	1,191	553	357
Vaccine Confident
Weighted Percentage	46.5%	64.7%	79.5%
Unweighted Percentage	48.9%	70.5%	77.6%
Frequency	1,684	2,425	2,466
Campaign Recall
No Recall
Weighted Percentage	47.3%	42.6%	48.0%
Unweighted Percentage	48.0%	41.8%	47.9%
Frequency	1,653	1,440	1,523
Infrequent Recall
Weighted Percentage	31.7%	40.9%	38.5%
Unweighted Percentage	31.2%	41.8%	38.9%
Frequency	1,072	1,439	1,235
Frequent Recall
Weighted Percentage	21.0%	16.5%	13.5%
Unweighted Percentage	20.8%	16.3%	13.2%
Frequency	716	562	420
Fictional Campaign Recall
No Recall
Weighted Percentage	89.6%	88.5%	86.4%
Unweighted Percentage	90.9%	89.0%	87.0%
Frequency	3,128	3,063	2,766
Any Recall
Weighted Percentage	10.4%	11.5%	13.6%
Unweighted Percentage	9.1%	11.0%	13.0%
Frequency	313	378	412

Note. All weighted percentages reflect survey weights from the corresponding wave. All respondents lost to attrition between waves 1 and 2 were excluded from analyses and thus excluded from the Wave 1 results.

Table 3. Results from Ordered Logistic Regression Model Predicting Vaccine Confidence

	β	Standard Error	z score
Campaign recall (linear)	0.26*	0.122	2.12
Campaign recall (quadratic)	0.07	0.095	0.70
Lagged vaccine confidence (linear)	3.42***	0.162	21.19
Lagged vaccine confidence (quadratic)	0.57***	0.087	6.57
Lagged campaign recall (linear)	0.06	0.105	0.61
Lagged campaign recall (quadratic)	−0.01	0.093	−0.08
Fictional campaign recall	0.06	0.144	0.38
Lagged fictional campaign recall	−0.25	0.169	−1.50
Survey wave	0.29**	0.114	2.54
Age (Ref. 18–24)
25–44	−0.14	0.184	−0.76
45–64	<0.01	0.191	0.02
65 and older	0.55*	0.236	2.33
Sex (Ref. Male)
Female	−0.15	0.099	−1.55
Race/Ethnicity (Ref. Non-Hispanic White)
Non-Hispanic Black	0.36*	0.140	2.55
Hispanic/Latino	0.35**	0.127	2.76
Education (Ref. No college)
Some college	0.10	0.105	0.97
Bachelor’s degree or above	0.46**	0.134	3.43
Income (Ref. Less than $50,000)
$50,000–$74,999	0.18	0.129	1.41
$75,000–$99,999	0.01	0.149	0.06
$100,000 or more	0.38*	0.159	2.39
Political Ideology (Ref. Liberal)
Moderate	−0.45**	0.140	−3.21
Conservative	−1.11***	0.142	−7.78
U.S. Census Region (Ref. Northeast)
Midwest	−0.47*	0.187	−2.53
South	−0.58**	0.180	−3.19
West	−0.51**	0.194	−2.62
Rurality (Ref. Urban)
Suburban	−0.09	0.114	−0.82
Rural	−0.44**	0.136	−3.25
Essential worker (versus not)	−0.17	0.108	−1.57
Preexisting health condition (versus none)	0.39***	0.100	3.86
Intercept 1: Vaccine Refuser | Movable Middle	−3.03***	0.285	−10.61
Intercept 2: Movable Middle | Vaccine Confident	−1.35***	0.288	−4.67

*** p < .001, ** p < .01, * p < .05, † p < .10. N = 6,619.

Figure 1. Likelihood of Vaccine Confidence Category Membership in Waves 2 and 3, Among All Wave 1 Respondents, by Campaign Recall Category.

Note. Among respondents who reported no Campaign recall in a given wave, the likelihood of being vaccine confident in that same wave was 85.3%. Among respondents who reported infrequent Campaign recall in a given wave, the likelihood of being vaccine confident in that same wave was 86.6%. Among respondents who reported frequent Campaign recall in a given wave, the likelihood of being vaccine confident in that same wave was 89.3%.

Figure 2. Likelihood of Vaccine Confidence Category Membership in Waves 2 and 3, Among Wave 1 Movable Middle Respondents, by Campaign Recall Category.

Note. Among Wave 1 Movable Middle respondents who reported no Campaign recall in a given wave, the likelihood of being vaccine confident in that same wave was 58.1%. Among Wave 1 Movable Middle respondents who reported infrequent Campaign recall in a given wave, the likelihood of being vaccine confident in that same wave was 60.5%. Among Wave 1 Movable Middle respondents who reported frequent Campaign recall in a given wave, the likelihood of being vaccine confident in that same wave was 66.6%.