Behavioral Beliefs Predict Recommended Behaviors, Especially When Trust in Public Health Sources is Low: Evidence from a Longitudinal Study of Three COVID-19 Prevention Behaviors Among U.S. Adults

Figures & data

Table 1. Descriptive statistics for time 1 measures comparing samples available at each measurement wave

Variable	Unweighted	T1 Measures, Weighted at Each Wave
	Time 1	Time 1	Time 2	Time 3
	M (SD) or %	M (SD) or %	M (SD) or %	M (SD) or %
Female	51.45%	51.31%	51.34%	51.92%
Age	49.03 (16.99)	46.11 (17.35)	46.28 (17.47)	45.83 (17.13)
Education (years)	14.77 (2.76)	14.02 (2.82)	14.06 (2.81)	13.9 (2.81)
Household size	2.66 (1.51)	2.87 (1.59)	2.87 (1.65)	2.72 (1.39)
Income ($1000/year)^1	60–70 (20–150)	60–70 (30–100)	60–70 (30–100)	60–70 (30–100)
Parent/guardian kid <18 years	30.17%	32.24%	32.39%	31.18%
Has partner/spouse	61.55%	63.28%	64.67%	62.02%
Work mostly away from home	22.83%	23.80%	23.80%	24.70%
Owns home	67.41%	65.40%	66.19%	67.33%
Region
Northeast	19.40%	17.48%	16.60%	17.51%
North Central	22.59%	20.81%	21.46%	21.10%
South	36.27%	37.44%	36.99%	37.41%
West	21.74%	24.28%	24.95%	23.98%
Race/Ethn. (non-exclusive)
Black	14.99%	10.81%	10.62%	11.63%
White	70.11%	71.51%	72.06%	71.95%
Latinx	9.96%	16.37%	15.41%	15.94%
Political ID
Republican	23.74%	22.67%	23.17%	25.33%
Democrat	37.43%	35.65%	35.74%	36.70%
Independent	32.77%	33.21%	32.96%	31.11%
T1 Trust public health sources	3.03 (0.77)	2.98 (0.76)	3.01 (0.75)	2.98 (0.77)
T1 Pro-facemask beliefs	3.16 (0.83)	3.16 (0.83)	3.17 (0.84)	3.12 (0.85)
T1 Facemask wearing scale	2.92 (1.04)	2.92 (1.06)	2.88 (1.05)	2.90 (1.07)
T1 Pro-social distance beliefs	3.25 (0.79)	3.23 (0.79)	3.26 (0.79)	3.20 (0.80)
T1 Social distance scale	2.77 (1.52)	2.79 (1.53)	2.76 (1.53)	2.75 (1.50)
T2 Pro-vaccine beliefs	N/A	N/A	2.72 (0.02)	2.69 (0.03)
T2 Vaccine intention	N/A	N/A	2.83 (0.04)	2.78 (0.05)
N	1074	1074	889	750

M indicates mean and SD indicates standard deviation. Weights developed to represent U.S. population. Descriptive data of samples available at each wave for variables measured at T1. N/A indicates data not collected.

¹Median household income and interquartile range.

Table 2. Weighted descriptive data and correlations of primary variables for facemask wearing and social distancing analyses

		M (SD)	1	2	3	4	5
Time 1	1. Facemask wearing scale	2.37 (0.96)	1.00
	2. Social distance scale (0–5)	2.54 (1.61)	0.44***	1.00
	3. Trust public health sources	2.98 (0.77)	0.13***	0.14***	1.00
	4. Pro-facemask beliefs	3.12 (0.85)	0.43***	0.38***	0.37***	1.00
	5. Pro-social distance beliefs	3.20 (0.80)	0.41***	0.36***	0.39***	0.89***	1.00
Time 2	Facemask wearing scale	2.53 (0.89)	0.65***	0.28***	0.14**	0.41***	0.40***
	Social distance scale (0–5)	2.54 (1.61)	0.34***	0.56***	0.12**	0.32***	0.33***
	Pro-facemask beliefs	3.20 (0.81)	0.39***	0.32***	0.44***	0.75***	0.74***
	Pro-social distance beliefs	3.33 (0.78)	0.39***	0.35***	0.42***	0.72***	0.73***
Time 3	Facemask wearing single item	2.98 (1.07)	0.44***	0.27***	0.26***	0.41***	0.39***
	Social distance single item	2.97 (0.99)	0.40***	0.35***	0.24***	0.39***	0.40***
	Trust public health sources	2.77 (0.92)	0.27***	0.28***	0.60***	0.55***	0.52***

Weights developed to represent U.S. population for each wave.

*p < .05, **p < .01, ***p < .001; T1 N = 1074; T2 N = 889; T3 N = 750.

All items measured on 1–4 scale unless otherwise indicated. Means (M) and standard deviations (SD) shown for respondents retained at T3.

Table 3. Weighted descriptive data and correlations of primary variables for vaccine analyses

	M (SD)	1	2	3
1. Time 3 Vaccine intention/behavior	3.76 (1.64)	1.00
2. Time 2 Vaccine intention	2.78 (1.19)	0.58***	1.00
3. Time 2 Pro-vaccine beliefs	2.69 (0.73)	0.60***	0. 60***	1.00
4. Time 2 Trust public health sources	2.76 (0.64)	0.53***	0.53***	0.51***

Weights developed to represent U.S. population for each wave. *p < .05, **p < .01, ***p < .001; N = 659

Table 4. OLS regression: protective behavior on time 1 trust in public health sources and pro-behavioral belief

Variable (Time 1)	Facemask Wearing						Social Distancing
	Time 2			Time 3			Time 2			Time 3
	B (SE)	B (SE)	B (SE)	B (SE)	B (SE)	B (SE)	B (SE)	B (SE)	B (SE)	B (SE)	B (SE)	B (SE)
Behavior	0.56***	0.61***	0.55***	0.35***	0.46***	0.35***	0.53***	0.58***	0.53***	0.15***	0.21***	0.15***
	(0.04)	(0.04)	(0.04)	(0.06)	(0.05)	(0.06)	(0.04)	(0.04)	(0.04)	(0.03)	(0.03)	(0.03)
Pro-behavioral beliefs	0.15***		0.41***	0.34***		0.57**	0.30***		0.66**	0.38***		0.87***
	(0.04)		(0.12)	(0.06)		(0.20)	(0.07)		(0.22)	(0.06)		(0.16)
Trust public health sources		0.06	0.32**		0.28***	0.53**		0.07	0.40		0.24***	0.76***
		(0.04)	(0.12)		(0.07)	(0.18)		(0.08)	(0.26)		(0.07)	(0.17)
Trust X Beliefs			−0.10*			−0.11^#			−0.13^#			−0.20***
			(0.04)			(0.06)			(0.08)			(0.06)
Constant	1.0***	0.82	0.01	1.10***	1.06***	−0.12	0.16	0.77**	−0.88	1.35***	1.69***	−0.49
	(0.14)	(0.11)	(0.33)	(0.16)	(0.22)	(0.49)	(0.23)	(0.25)	(0.65)	(0.19)	(0.22)	(0.42)
N	837	833	833	708	706	706	887	883	833	748	745	745
R^2	0.43	0.42	0.43	0.25	0.24	0.27	0.33	0.32	0.23	0.20	0.16	0.23

Standard errors in parentheses; Weights developed to represent U.S. population. #p < .10, *p < .05, **p < .01, ***p < .001

Table 5. OLS regression: time 3 COVID-19 Vaccine intention/behavior on trust in public health sources and behavioral belief

Variable (Time 2)	Vaccine Intention/Behavior (Time 3)
	B (SE)	B (SE)	B (SE)
Vaccine intention	0.31**	0.43***	0.27**
	(0.09)	(0.07)	(0.08)
Pro-behavioral beliefs	0.65***		1.13***
	(0.13)		(0.32)
Trust in public health sources		0.72***	1.28***
		(0.12)	(0.30)
Trust X Pro-vaccine beliefs			−0.27**
			(0.10)
Constant	0.58**	0.05	−2.06***
	(0.21)	(0.26)	(0.70)
N	664	659	659
R^2	0.41	0.45	0.49

Standard errors in parentheses; Weights developed to represent U.S. population.

*p < .05, **p < .01, ***p < .001

Figure 1. Predictive margins: facemask wearing at time 3 (T3) on pro-facemask wearing beliefs and trust/distrust in public health sources time 1 (T1).

Predictive margins show T3 facemask wearing linear prediction on T1 pro-facemask belief, controlling for T1 facemask wearing, for respondents with higher and lower T1 trust in public health officials as sources of information about COVID-19. Trust was measured from 1 (strongly distrust) to 4 (strongly trust). Mean trust level was 4.00 for the high trust group (>1 standard deviation above mean; n = 285) and 1.80 for the low trust group (<1 standard deviation below the mean; n = 213).

Figure 2. Predictive margins: social distancing at time 3 (T3) on Pro-social distancing beliefs and trust/distrust in public health sources at time 1 (T1).

Predictive margins show T3 social distancing linear prediction on T1 pro-social distance belief, controlling for T1 social distancing, for respondents with higher and lower T1 trust in public health officials as sources of information about COVID-19. Trust was measured from 1 (strongly distrust) – 4 (strongly trust). Mean trust level was 4.00 for the high trust group (>1 standard deviation above mean; n = 285) and 1.80 for the low trust group (<1 standard deviation below the mean; n = 213).

Figure 3. Predictive margins: vaccination behavior/intentions at time 3 (t3) on pro-vaccine beliefs and trust/distrust in public health sources at time 2 (T2).

Note. Predictive margins show T3 vaccine intentions/behavior linear prediction on T2 pro-vaccine beliefs, controlling for T2 vaccine intentions, for respondents with higher and lower T2 trust in public health officials as sources of information about COVID-19. Trust was measured from 1 (strongly distrust) – 4 (strongly trust). Mean trust level was 3.65 for the high trust group (>1 standard deviation above mean; n = 115) and 1.69 for the low trust group (<1 standard deviation below the mean; n = 132).