The effect of parental loss on child survival in nineteenth century rural Estonia

Figures & data

Figure 1. Map of Estonia, the two parishes included in the study are highlighted in grey, Paistu (Holstre)¹ and Helme²

Mapped by Kersti Siitan; GIS: Historical Administrative boarders of Estonia (1999).

The map shows parish borders and the borders of the governorates of Estland and Livland in 1897.

Table 1. Descriptive statistics infant and childhood mortality, Helme and Holstre 1826–1891

	Infant mortality (29–364 days)		Early childhood mortality (1–4 years)		Childhood mortality (5–9 years)
	# obs.	# deaths (%)	# obs.	# deaths (%)	# obs.	# deaths (%)
Sex
Male	7,697	1,149 (.15)	6,134	901 (.15)	4,561	212 (.05)
Female	7,565	985 (.13)	6,153	928 (.15)	4,581	204 (.04)
Mother’s age
<20	298	42 (.14)	249	46 (.18)	173	6 (.03)
20–24	3,056	470 (.15)	2,424	327 (.14)	1,839	74 (.04)
25–29	4,098	506 (.12)	3,344	477 (.14)	2,477	110 (.04)
30–34	3,645	523 (.14)	2,914	454 (.16)	2,140	116 (.05)
35–39	2,652	355 (.13)	2,147	323 (.15)	1,628	71 (.04)
40+	1,513	238 (.16)	1,209	202 (.17)	885	39 (.04)
SES
Farmer	4,942	712 (.14)	4,019	590 (.15)	3,131	123 (.04)
Labourers (landless)	9,302	1,284 (.14)	7,448	1,145 (.15)	5,413	276 (.05)
Other	1,018	138 (.14)	820	94 (.11)	598	17 (.03)
Birth cohort
1826–1839	2,978	455 (.15)	2,514	405 (.16)	2,042	129 (.06)
1840–1849	2,503	390 (.16)	2,098	404 (.19)	1,616	105 (.07)
1850–1859	2,361	363 (.15)	1,977	307 (.16)	1,533	53 (.03)
1860–1869	2,551	328 (.13)	2,185	264 (.12)	1,780	53 (.03)
1870–1879	2,557	320 (.13)	2,228	299 (.13)	1,807	59 (.03)
1880–1891	2,312	278 (.12)	1,285	150 (.12)	364	17 (.05)
Parental status
Parents alive	15,073	2,105 (.14)	11,507	1,762 (.15)	8,345	385 (.05)
Father died	124	10 (.08)	502	41 (.08)	480	13 (.03)
Mother died	64	19 (.41)	254	23 (.09)	287	17 (.06)
Both parents died	1	0 (.00)	24	3 (.13)	30	1 (.03)
Parish
Helme	11,520	1,717 (.15)	9,142	1,420 (.16)	6,680	288 (.04)
Holstre	3,742	417 (.11)	3,145	409 (.13)	2,462	128 (.05)
TOTAL	15,262	2,134 (.14)	12,287	1,829 (.15)	9,142	416 (.05)

Table 2. Hazard ratios of parental loss in Helme and Holstre, 1826–1891

	Infant mortality (29–364 days)	Early childhood mortality (1–4 years)	Childhood mortality (5–9 years)
Sex (ref. Male)
Female	0.866** (.038)	1.022 (.049)	0.961 (.094)
Mother’s age (ref. 30–34)
<20	0.990 (.161)	1.187 (.190)	0.659 (.281)
20–24	1.074 (.071)	0.854* (.063)	0.751† (.114)
25–29	0.853* (.054)	0.898 (.060)	0.825 (.113)
35–39	0.944 (.068)	0.962 (.071)	0.824 (.128)
40+	1.150† (.092)	1.103 (.093)	0.837 (.159)
SES (ref. Farmer)
Labourers (landless)	0.982 (.051)	1.099† (.058)	1.319* (.145)
Other	0.991 (.103)	0.839 (.093)	0.827 (.233)
Birth cohort (ref. 1826–1839)
1840–1849	1.044 (.073)	1.248** (.092)	0.996 (.135)
1850–1859	1.043 (.077)	1.014 (.079)	0.528*** (.088)
1860–1869	0.836* (.065)	0.754*** (.061)	0.479*** (.079)
1870–1879	0.802** (.061)	0.846* (.067)	0.520*** (.084)
1880–1891	0.764** (.062)	0.719** (.071)	0.744 (.191)
Parental status (ref. Parents alive)
Father died	1.379 (.438)	1.358† (.223)	1.341 (.385)
Mother died	7.399*** (1.853)	1.453† (.324)	2.851*** (.764)
Both parents died	–	3.145* (1.812)	2.406 (2.417)
Parish (ref. Helme)
Holstre	0.714*** (.042)	0.795*** (.047)	1.229† (.139)
N individuals	15,262	12,287	9,142
N failures	2,134	1,829	416
Prob > chi	0.000	0.000	0.000

Proportional hazards assumption checked using Schoenfeld residuals. Model standard errors (in parentheses) clustered at family-level. † p ≤ 0.10; * p ≤ 0.05; ** p ≤ 0.01; *** p ≤ 0.001.

Table 3. Hazard ratios of parental loss in Helme and Holstre, 1826–1891

	Helme			Holstre
	29–364 days	1–4 years	5–9 years	29–364 days	1–4 years	5–9 years
SES (ref. Farmer)
Labourers (landless)	0.998 (.070)	1.164* (.069)	1.308* (.168)	0.895 (.104)	0.858 (.093)	1.334 (.280)
Other	0.927 (.110)	0.791† (.105)	0.887 (.280)	1.301 (.283)	1.030 (.221)	0.616 (.378)
Birth cohort (ref. 1826–1839)
1840–1849	1.029 (.082)	1.313** (.111)	1.033 (.165)	1.017 (.162)	0.924 (.134)	0.900 (.214)
1850–1859	1.124 (.090)	1.005 (.087)	0.698* (.128)	0.753 (.136)	0.668* (.108)	0.261*** (.092)
1860–1869	0.863† (.074)	0.803* (.070)	0.512*** (.100)	0.696† (.130)	0.515*** (.090)	0.407** (.123)
1870–1879	0.816* (.068)	0.898 (.079)	0.540*** (.103)	0.709† (.136)	0.510*** (.093)	0.477** (.138)
1880–1891	0.763** (.069)	0.813† (.088)	0.469† (.182)	0.744 (.138)	0.437*** (.100)	1.215 (.442)
Parental status (ref. Parents alive)
Father died	1.621 (.518)	1.114 (.229)	1.561 (.512)	–	2.254** (.642)	0.930 (.546)
Mother died	7.481*** (2.091)	1.201 (.332)	2.739** (.873)	7.542*** (4.272)	3.093** (1.194)	3.239* (1.615)
Both parents died	–	2.952 (2.146)	3.309 (3.353)	–	3.944† (3.110)	–
N individuals	11,520	9,142	6,680	3,742	3,145	2,462
N failures	1,717	1,420	288	417	409	128
Prob > chi	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

Proportional hazards assumption checked using Schoenfeld residuals. Models include controls for sex of the child and mother’s age. Model standard errors (in parentheses) clustered at family-level. † p ≤ 0.10; * p ≤ 0.05; ** p ≤ 0.01; *** p ≤ 0.001.

Table 4. Hazard ratios by socioeconomic status on parental loss in Helme and Holstre, 1826–1891

	Farmers			Labourers (landless)
	29–364 days	1–4 years	5–9 years	29–364 days	1–4 years	5–9 years
Parental status (ref. Parents alive)
Father died	1.486 (.877)	1.713† (.477)	1.646 (.873)	1.429 (.542)	1.300 (.278)	1.286 (.439)
Mother died	7.528*** (3.373)	1.003 (.421)	2.630† (1.380)	6.628*** (2.159)	1.822* (.519)	2.845*** (.931)
Both parents died	–	2.537 (2.725)	–	–	2.151 (2.104)	3.735 (3.766)
N individuals	4,942	4,019	3,131	9,302	7,448	5,413
N failures	712	590	123	1,284	1,145	276
Prob > chi	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

Proportional hazards assumption checked using Schoenfeld residuals. Models include controls for sex of the child, birth cohort and mother’s age. Model standard errors (in parentheses) clustered at family-level.

† p ≤ 0.10; * p ≤ 0.05; ** p ≤ 0.01; *** p ≤ 0.001.

Table 5. Hazard ratios on parental remarriage in Helme and Holstre, 1826–1891

	29 days–9 years			29 days–9 years
	All	Farmers	Labourers (landless)	All	Farmers	Labourers (landless)
Parental status (ref. Only father alive)
Father remarries	0.516** (.131)	0.480† (.212)	0.626 (.213)
Parental status (ref. Only mother alive)
Mother remarries				0.926 (.316)	1.032 (.479)	1.001 (.501)
N individuals	626	213	375	1,076	315	705
N failures	115	36	71	110	32	74
Prob > chi	0.009	0.559	0.012	0.399	0.336	0.000

Proportional hazards assumption checked using Schoenfeld residuals. Models include controls for sex of the child, birth cohort, mother’s age, and parish. Model standard errors (in parentheses) clustered at family-level.

† p ≤ 0.10; * p ≤ 0.05; ** p ≤ 0.01; *** p ≤ 0.001.