Figures & data: 400 predictions: the SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook 2008

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Figures & data

Figure 1. Number of SIO contributions by year and method, all months combined, 2008–2015.

Figure 2. SIO June, July and August 2015 predictions for September mean sea ice extent. Box plots indicate the median, IQR and outliers for each distribution.

Figure 3. Observed September extent shown with quadratic trend and median of July SIO predictions, 1979–2015.

Figure 4. Observed September extent compared with median and IQR of July SIO predictions, 2008–2015.

Figure 5. SIO prediction error (median July SIO minus observed September extent) versus observed change from September the previous year, 2008–2015.

Table 1. Comparison of median July SIO predictions with predictions based on linear or quadratic extrapolation (using data from 1979 to the previous year) or persistence (extent same as previous year), over 2008–2015, in millions of km².

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Table 2. Quantile regression coefficients (with robust standard errors), modeling the median absolute prediction error as a function of (0,1) indicators for year, month and method. Base groups are the comparison categories. Regression 2 and 3 apply the new distinction between ice-ocean and ice-ocean-atmosphere modeling; regression 3 includes contributions only from researchers, setting aside those identified as general public.

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400 predictions: the SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook 2008–2015

Table 1. Comparison of median July SIO predictions with predictions based on linear or quadratic extrapolation (using data from 1979 to the previous year) or persistence (extent same as previous year), over 2008–2015, in millions of km².

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400 predictions: the SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook 2008–2015

Figures & data

Table 1. Comparison of median July SIO predictions with predictions based on linear or quadratic extrapolation (using data from 1979 to the previous year) or persistence (extent same as previous year), over 2008–2015, in millions of km2.

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Table 1. Comparison of median July SIO predictions with predictions based on linear or quadratic extrapolation (using data from 1979 to the previous year) or persistence (extent same as previous year), over 2008–2015, in millions of km².